Bowl thoughts.
Per bylaw exception 30.9.2.1 an institution with a record of six wins and six losses may be selected for participation in a bowl game if 1) the institution or its conference has a primary contractual affiliation which existed prior to the first contest of the applicable season, with the sponsoring bowl organization. In the case of a conference contractual affiliation, all conference teams with winning records must be placed in one of the contracted bowl games before any institution with a record of six wins and six losses may be placed in a contracted bowl game; and 2) all contractual affiliations have been fulfilled and all institutions with winning records have received bowl invitations (either through a contractual affiliation or as an at-large selection.
- Ohio State (4-0) (8-0)
- Michigan (4-0) (6-2)
- Illinois (3-2) (5-3)
- Penn State (3-2) (6-2)
- Purdue (2-2) (6-2)
- Wisconsin (2-2) (6-2)
- Northwestern (2-2) (5-3)
- Indiana (2-3) (5-3)
- Michigan State (1-3) (5-3)
- Iowa (1-4) (3-5)
- Minnesota (0-4) (1-7)
The teams in bold are eligible. The teams in italics are conditionally eligible. And here is the remaining Big Ten schedule, with the most likely winner in bold
Oct. 27
Ball State @ Illinois
IU @ Wisconsin
Northwestern @ Purdue
MSU @ Iowa
Minnesota @ Michigan
Ohio State @ Penn State
November 3
Ball State @ IU
Purdue @ Penn State
Wisconsin @ OSU
Michigan @ MSU
Iowa @ Northwestern
Illinois @ Minnesota
November 10
PSU @ Temple
MSU @ Purdue
Illinois @ Ohio State
Michigan @ Wisconsin
IU @ Northwestern
Minnesota @ Iowa
November 17
Penn State @ MSU
OSU @ Michigan
Purdue @ IU
Northwestern @ Illinois
Wisconsin @ Minnesota
Western Mich @ Iowa
Now, I don't want to quibble about any of these predictions. This is just my best shot at a plausible outcome. Many of these games would not be significant upsets if they went the other way. The scenario above would leave us with the following standings:
- Ohio State (8-0) (12-0)
- Michigan (7-1) (9-3)
- Penn State (5-3) (9-3)
- Purdue (5-3) (9-3)
- Wisconsin (5-3) (9-3)
- Illinois (5-3) (8-4)
- Indiana (3-5) (7-5)
- Northwestern (3-5) (6-6)
- Michigan State (2-6) (6-6)
- Iowa (2-6) (5-7)
- Minnesota (0-8) (1-11)
Under this specific scenario, IU would be headed for sunny Detroit, but it doesn't require much creativity to imagine a scenario in which IU could be shut out of Big Ten-affiliated bowls. For instance, the team that would seem to be the toughest to forecast (this year, every year) is Michigan State. I have MSU winning at Iowa, losing at Purdue, and losing at home to Michigan and Penn State. MSU could win or lose any of those games. If everything stays the same but MSU wins at home against Michigan, then MSU would have the same record as IU, a head-to-head win, a tougher schedule, and loads of fans near Detroit. In that case, IU would be at the mercy of the unpredictable at-large market. Less likely, but still possible, is that Iowa could win out. Iowa has MSU at home, plays Northwestern, and hosts Minnesota and Western Michigan. Even as unremarkable as Iowa has been, the last two games are locks, and neither of the first two would be a huge upset. In that case, Iowa would not have the head-to-head advantage over IU, but does have a much better fan following. On the other hand, if the Motor City Bowl is deciding between IU and Iowa, the proximity of Indiana may make a difference, as will the fact that IU fans and players would be much more excited about the Motor City than would be Iowa fans, who have become accustomed to warmer climes. Still, while Howard Griffith is wrong about the rules, IU could be shut out with seven or more wins.
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