Michigan State, take 2.

Michigan State Spartans

Current record: 23-5 (13-3)

Current RPI: 4

Current Sagarin: 6

Current Pomeroy: 12

2007-08 record: 27-9, 12-6 (lost to Memphis in NCAA Sweet 16)

2007-08 RPI: 13

2007-08 Sagarin: 15

2007-08 Pomeroy: 15

Series: IU leads 65-45

Last Michigan State win: 2/7/2009 (75-47 in East Lansing)

Last IU win: 2/16/2008 (80-61 in Bloomington)

Last MSU win in Bloomington: 2/8/2003 (67-62)

Pomeroy scouting report

TV: 7 pm Tuesday, ESPN

I'm not going to say much about the game. MSU is one of the best teams in the country. IU has clinched 11th place in the conference. The Spartans, with one win in their next two games, can clinch their first outright Big Ten title since 1999 and have already clinched a share of the title. Still, although MSU is the most successful Big Ten program of the last 15 years, the Spartans have struggled in Bloomington. Tom Izzo is only 2-9 in Bloomington and hasn't won at Assembly Hall in six years. The Spartans are highly favored to win the game, but I suppose we can always hope for some senior night magic. MSU, as always, is excellent on the boards on both ends of the court. That's it. IU should lose, but we can hope that the team finds a way to compete in the final home game of the season.

On a side note, if you're getting ready to purchase those season tickets and finding the deadline is quickly approaching, there's now a way to get an almost instant cash advance online. Getting access to your money has never been faster or easier....and just a click away.

Michigan State 75, Indiana 47.

After a surprisingly competitive first 22 minutes, Michigan State exploded in the second half, and the final score was much as expected. Here's the box score. Of course, the various issues involving Devan Dumes have dominated postgame coverage. My thoughts, now mute thanks to Tom Crean's decision to suspend Dumes indefinitely, were that sitting him down for a game would be warranted. Some commenters on Inside the Hall and in other places were suggesting anything from a five game suspension to dismissal from the team. I think there's a bit of shellshock among the IU fan base and a tendency to overreact. I don't excuse Dumes's actions, but that would be harsh, and I'm guessing that the indefinite suspension (under which Dumes will continue practicing and traveling with the team) will be in the nature of a game or two.

For Dumes, this game included three incidents, any one of which might have been excused, but which taken as a whole (and perhaps with the elbow to the head of Northwestern's Craig Moore a couple of weeks ago) seem to be a pattern that Crean needed to get under control. Elbow number one against MSU was fairly innocuous. Absent the rest of the game, it would have been forgotten. Later in the game, Dumes clearly elbowed Michigan State's Goran Suton in the crotch. KJ of Spartans Weblog had an in-person view of the play and is incredulous that Ed Hightower didn't toss Dumes out of the game after the video review. Eh. While I don't think there's much doubt that Dumes threw the elbow intentionally (i.e., it wasn't part of his running motion), my best guess is that Hightower concluded that he wasn't sure if Dumes intentionally elbowed Suton where he did or if he was just trying (illegally) to get ahead of Suton. Whatever. I didn't see the final elbow of the game, but ultimately, the totality earned a suspension for Dumes, and hopefully he will learn his lesson.

As for the game, IU played its least efficient offensive game since Maui, scoring only .68 points per possession. IU turned the ball over quite a bit, and although the Hoosiers rebounded respectably on the defensive end, MSU took much better care of the ball (only 10 turnovers to IU's 21) and made six three pointers. MSU shot only 42 percent from the field, but IU shot 31 percent. It was a decent enough defensive performance from IU, but was overwhelmed by the Spartan defense.

No Hoosiers stood out much on offense. Verdell Jones scored 13 points on 8 shots thanks to 8-10 from the line. Matt Roth scored 10 points on 8 shots despite only 2-8 from the field.

Overall, this one was unsurprising. Now, IU heads to Minnesota without its leading scorer and then hosts Illinois on Sunday.

The Michigan State game.

Michigan State Spartans
Current record: 18-4 (8-2)
Current RPI: 4
Current Sagarin: 7
Current Pomeroy: 14
2007-08 record: 27-9, 12-6 (lost to Memphis in NCAA Sweet 16)
2007-08 RPI: 13
2007-08 Sagarin: 15
2007-08 Pomeroy: 15
Series: IU leads 65-44
Last Michigan State win: 3/2/2008 (103-74 in East Lansing)
Last IU win: 2/16/2008 (80-61 in Bloomington)
Last IU win in East Lansing: 2/28/1991 (62-56)
Pomeroy scouting report
TV: 4 pm, ESPN

While conventional wisdom suggests that the Big Ten does not have a great team this season, but absent an inexplicable home losses to Northwestern and Penn State a couple of weeks ago, the Spartans would be in control of the Big Ten race and in the thick of the one-seed discussion. Of course, Penn State and Northwestern are much better than usual, but it would be interesting to know the highest in the Big Ten standings a team has finished in a season in which it lost at home to both Penn State and Northwestern.

I digress because I don't have much to say about this game. It appears to be IU's second most hopeless remaining game, ahead only of the trip to Mackey in a couple of weeks. This team is yet another example of the classic Izzo formula: good shooting plus excellent offensive rebounding equals an incredibly efficient, if not pretty, offense. On the defensive side, the Spartans excel only at rebounding, but that's enough to make MSU's defense very effective. Unlike matchups against the likes of Michigan, Iowa, Northwestern, and even Ohio State and Illinois, MSU seems likely to manhandle the Hoosiers. Currently, the Spartans rank #3 nationally in offensive rebounding, coming up with 42.2 percent of their own misses, and #8 in defensive rebounding percentage, limiting opponents to 27 percent of their misses. MSU doesn't take all that many three pointers, but they choose carefully, ranking #44 nationally with 37.8 percent shooting from behind the arc, and thanks presumably in large part to second chance points, the Spartans shoot over 50 percent from inside the arc. MSU doesn't take particularly good care of the ball and doesn't force many turnovers, but the Spartans play solid field goal defense and rarely allow or miss out on a second chance.

Of course, the subtext in this game is the first conference game between Izzo and his protege, Tom Crean. They previously met in the first round of the NCAA Tournament in 2007, and MSU defeated Marquette. Many IU fans will be wondering if they are watching a preview of future IU teams? To some degree, that seems likely. The one thread that runs through Crean's good and mediocre Marquette teams is excellent offensive rebounding. Marquette under Crean never really excelled on the defensive boards the way Izzo's teams do, but Crean's teams also tended to be more perimeter oriented, with more three point shooting, and also look a bit better on turnovers on both sides of the ball.

The only positive for tomorrow is that Raymar Morgan, MSU's #2 scorer and #2 rebounder, will miss his second consecutive game because of walking pneumonia. Still, the Spartans, with Kalin Lucas, Goran Suton, and a host of others, even a competitive loss by IU would be a surprise.

For the Spartan side of things, be sure to check out this preview from Spartans Weblog, one of the finest basketball-focused blogs around. As KJ notes, IU may be starting to show the Izzo-Crean influence already. In conference games, IU ranks #3 in offensive rebounding percentage and #2 in defensive rebounding percentage, and #3 in three point percentage (41 percent, thanks in large part to great games from Matt Roth and Devan Dumes in the last week.

Michigan State 42, Indiana 29.

I was out of town on Saturday and forgot to Tivo the game, so my comments will be fairly short. It's for the better, I suppose. Watching the 97-yard TD pass that turned into a safety for holding in the end zone probably would have taken years off my life. Here's the box score. Spartans Weblog is a must-read during basketball season, but I didn't realize that he had branched out into football so extensively. Read the whole thing, as they say, but here's his recap of the game. My thoughts, which, again, are entirely box score-based:

• Surprisingly even offensive numbers. MSU modestly outgained IU, 497-473. IU had a slight edge in yards per play, 6.6 to 6.4. IU punted 7 times, MSU 6 times.
• The difference, apparently, was turnovers. IU had 3, MSU 0.
• Marcus Thigpen had another nice game, with 113 yards on 9 carries. As is often the case, Thigpen got the bulk of the yards on a big play, a 78 yard run. Still, even taking the big run out of the equation, he averaged 4.3 on the other carries. He was a beast catching the ball as well, with two catched for 94 yards, and adding a receiving TD to his two rushing TDs.
• Shades of Cam Cameron: Lynch played Lewis and Chappell at the same time, lining up Lewis as a WR. Both had respectable performances passing (actually, Chappell was only 11-23), and it will be interesting to see how this develops.
• Demarlo Belcher joined the attack, with 73 yards on four catches.
• No sacks! The 2007 team is looking like a one year wonder.
• Javon Ringer brutalized us, of course.

Overall, it sounds like it was a frustrating game to watch, but I can't be too discouraged considering MSU's strengths. Now, IU enters the most crucial stretch of its season. IU plays at Minnesota this week, then Iowa at home, then at Illinois, then at home against Northwestern. To make it to a bowl game (I'm assuming 7 wins will be required), IU almost certainly must go 3-1 in the next four weeks. And even going 3-1 would require IU to beat dangerous Central Michigan and either pull a major upset against PSU or Wisconsin or beat Purdue in Joe Tiller's last home game. The Ball State loss remains a killer, obviously. More on the apparently improved Gophers later.

IU-MSU around the blogosphere.

Not surprisingly, opinion is running heavily in favor of MSU in this game. And what can I say? I would be surprised if IU wins this game. It's not that I expect MSU to win the Big Ten, but trying to stop a back like Javon Ringer just doesn't seem to be in the Hoosiers' immediate future, and if IU stacks the box, as it must, I have a feeling that Brian Hoyer is going to break out of his slump (as mentioned earlier, Hoyer is completing only 44 percent of his passes, well worse than his ~60 percent last year). MSU just strikes me as a particularly bad matchup for the Hoosiers, and I don't think I would feel much better about it even if IU had beat Ball State 42-20 instead of losing by that score. My only hope is not based on anything either team has done, but based on Sparty's perceived history of gacking on should-win games, particularly after big wins, if Notre Dame counts as that this year.

First, make sure that you check out the Enlightened Spartan's gameday preview. He predicts a 38-17 win, which sounds about right, unfortunately. More significantly, he has a nice table setting out IU and MSU statistically, side by side. You know, the sort of thing I should be bringing you but haven't this week. Ground Zero East Lansing is new to the sidebar, and doesn't have a preview up yet. SpartyMSU also has pretty charts, and predicts 38-12. ESPN's Adam Rittenberg sticks with Vegas, predicting a 9 point MSU win (30-21).

It is a pretty interesting slate of games for the Big Ten's opening weekend. MSU and Ohio State (against Minnesota) are heavy favorites, but Iowa-Northwestern, Penn State-Illinois, Michigan-Wisconsin, and Purdue-Notre Dame all are intriguing.

Carnage in the secondary.

As I noted before the season, with the exception of MLB Adam McClurg, IU returned its front 7 intact, but would be putting a bunch of inexperienced players in the secondary, especially at the corners. So where has the injury bug struck? Naturally. Chris Phillips, the only cornerback in the preseason two-deep who had ever played a down, is out for the season with a torn ACL suffered on the drive immediately following the Dante Love injury. Phillips didn't hit anyone and didn't get hit, but landed awkwardly while trying to break up a Ball State TD pass. Chris Adkins is back, but will be be ready to play after landing the hit that caused Love's injury? Apparently Richard Council will start

As if that's not bad enough, IU's starting safeties, Nick Polk and Austin Thomas, the strength of the secondary, both will miss the MSU game. Although the Hoosier Scoop, in the post linked above, mentions that Joe Kleinsmith and Brandon Mosley are getting the most work at safety, I think it's time for Jerimy Finch to live up to his press clippings. If Brian Hoyer doesn't throw the ball well against IU, that's a major problem for MSU (of course, that assumes that they have to throw it at all).

Michigan State preview.

Michigan State Spartans

2008 record: 3-1

2008 Sagarin: 30 (IU is #82)

2007 record: 7-6 (3-5), lost to Boston College in Champs Sports Bowl

2007 Sagarin: 47

Series: Michigan State leads 39-15-2

Last IU win: 2006, 46-21 in Bloomington

Last MSU win: 2007, 52-27 in East Lansing

Last MSU win in Bloomington: 9/25/04 (30-20)

IU doesn't exactly have a get-well game on the horizon after a disappointing blowout loss to Ball State. Last year, Javon Ringer brutalized the Hoosiers, gaining 203 yards on 29 carries, and after a so-so debut against Cal, Ringer has been doing it again: 34-135 and 4 TDs against Eastern Michigan; 43-282 against Florida Atlantic; 39-201 against Notre Dame. The main difference between this year and last year is that Ringer is doing it by himself this year. In 2007, Ringer shared carries with Jehuu Caulcrick, which ran for 97 yards against IU in addition to Ringer's production.

It hasn't all been pretty for MSU's offense. QB Brian Hoyer has completed only 44 percent of his passes and has thrown only one touchdown and two interceptions. It's odd, because Hoyer had a respectable season last year, completing 60 percent of his passes and throwing 20 TDs to 10 interceptions. I fear that IU's secondary will be just what he needs.

MSU's defense is doing fine, ranked #50 in total defense and as with MSU's offense, better numbers against the rush than against the pass.

This series has fluctuated between blowouts over the last couple of years. IU won 46-21 in Bloomington in 2006, a game that IU led 46-7 and probably was IU's most thorough thrashing of a Big Ten opponent in the last 15 years. In 2007, MSU more than returned the favor, winning 52-27 and outgaining IU 558-193. The 2004 game in Bloomington counts as one of the bigger heartbreaks in recent memory, one of many should-haves from Gerry Dinardo's last season. IU led 20-7 at halftime but didn't score in the second half at lost 30-20. That was the second game after IU's upset win at Oregon. IU followed that win with an embarrassing game against Kentucky in which IU gave up 51 points to a team that scored only 173 all year, and then a huge choke job against MSU. But I digress.

I'll have more to say about this game over the next couple of days. The Hoosiers have done a decent job of rebounding from disappointment in the last couple of years. In 2006, after losing to SIU and Connecticut, IU won at Illinois for the first time since 1979 and then upset #13 Iowa. Last year, IU rebounded from what seemed like a disappointing loss to Illinois by winning at Iowa. Still, there's really nothing in the teams' performances that gives me much optimism for this matchup.

Game week!

Five days from today, almost to the hour, the Hoosiers begin the 2008 season with a home game against new-to-I-A Western Kentucky. Plenty of questions remain about the season and the program. Will Kellen Lewis, Ben Chappell, or both be the quarterback? How will IU's offense respond to the departure of James Hardy? Will the addition of Jerimy Finch and the return of most of the front seven take some pressure off of IU's newbie cornerbacks? Is the real Bill Lynch the guy from the middle years of his career at BSU, or the guy from the rest of his career? What is certain is that the long bowl drought is over. We won't have to read about it in the newspaper or hear color commentators discuss it during every game.

In light of the rapidly approaching season, a few executive decisions:

• I'll continue the position-by-position previews as the week transpires, in addition to previewing the WKU game specifically.
• I'm not going to be able to continue the 2007 retrospectives in any detail. The rest of this post will contain links and brief discussion of the last seven games of the 2007 season.

The season that was, abbreviated version:

• Game 7: Michigan State 52, Indiana 27. Here's the box, here's my unhappy recap. The euphoria of the Bucket game and the thrill of the first bowl bid in 14 years allowed me forget just how frustrating was the last half of the 2007 season. In 2006, IU obliterated MSU in Bloomington, scoring 46 unanswered points on the way to a not-as-close-as-the-score 46-21 win. In 2007, MSU got its revenge, dominating all but the scoreboard in the first half and finally expanding its lead in the second half. This was a splash of cold water after a 5-1 start.
• Game 8: Penn State 36, Indiana 31. The box; the recap. IU played Penn State for the first time since the 2004 gut-puch, a game in which PSU stopped IU on four consecutive plays from the one yard line to preserve a victory. Fumbles and mental errors by two of IU's best players, Kellen Lewis (three fumbles) and Tracy Porter (a fumbled punt return, and allowing a punt to bounce to the 5 instead of catching it at the 30 on IU's last possession) sealed IU's fate.
• Game 9: Wisconsin 33, Indiana 3. The box; the recap. Late October was not good to the Hoosiers. The final score really says it all. This one could have been as ugly as the MSU game if PJ Hill hadn't been injured during the game.
• Game 10: Indiana 38, Ball State 20. The box; the recap. After a rough few weeks, IU clinched a non-losing season and provisional bowl eligibility by beating a solid Ball State team by 18 despite too many turnovers. IU plays Ball State in game 3 of 2008, so we'll revisit this one soon.
• Game 11: Northwestern 31, Indiana 28. The box; the recap. Had IU not held on against Purdue, this game, and the handling of Ben Chappell during his brief injury substitution for Lewis, might have cost Bill Lynch a chance at the job. IU lost its fourth consecutive game to Northwestern, and all four games have been decided in overtime or by less than a touchdown.
• Game 12: Indiana 27, Purdue 24. The box, the recap. IU kept the Bucket in Bloomington for the first time in six years despite allowing Purdue to come back from a 24-3 deficit. While a blowout would have been nice, after a gut-wrenching collapse, IU managed (barely) to move the ball into Austin Starr's range, and the 49-yard game-winning field goal become one of the most memorable moments of the 2007 season nationally and one of the most treasured moments in IU's football history.
• Insight Bowl: Oklahoma State 49, Indiana 33. The box; the recap. This game followed the same script as the MSU game: IU was manhandled from start to finish by a talented team with a mediocre record, despite the deceptively close score. This game is the reason that I ranked Oklahoma State in my preseason blogpoll ballot: IU was no worldbeater last year, but this OSU team has lots of talent, particularly at the offensive skill positions. While the loss was disappointing, IU played in its first bowl game since 1993 and its first warm weather bowl game since 1991. It was progress, and by all accounts a great experience for players and IU fans.

UPDATE: ESPN's Adam Rittenberg notes that IU's depth chart is out and has some interesting observations on tight end, corner, and WR. Here is IU's week 1 depth chart, within the weekly release (pdf warning).

Michigan State 103, Indiana 74.

I, for one, welcome our new Spartan overlords. As my preview indicated, I approached yesterday's game with restrained optimism. While I thought it more likely than not that MSU would win, I really expected IU to compete with this something-is-missing version of the Spartans. Instead, MSU played extremely well and IU rolled over, and MSU handed IU its most lopsided loss in the history of the series (previous worst: the eventual NCAA champion Spartans defeated the eventual NIT champion Hoosiers 82-58 in East Lansing in 1979). By my rough count, IU has now played a total of 1393 games against Big Ten opponents. Yesterday's game was only the 30th time that a Big Ten opponent had scored 100 or more points against IU. Of those 30 games, 25 were played between 1957 and 1971, the "Hurryin' Hoosiers" era of Branch McCracken and Lou Watson. Yesterday was only the 6th time since Bob Knight's arrival in 1971 that a Big Ten opponent has scored 100 or more points against IU.

After yesterday's game, it's fair for IU fans to question whether this season that began with such promise has any chance of extending to the second week of the NCAA Tournament. While it's unfair to blame Dakich, in the three games since Sampson's ouster IU basely beat Northwestern and Ohio State and lost quite badly to MSU. As well as MSU shot, the Spartans probably would have won no matter what. But IU's NBA All-Star Game-caliber defense turned a loss into a humiliation. I try not to get in to intangibles "hindpsychology," so please understand that I'm not accusing the players of quitting. But yesterday's game had the feel, from a fan's perspective of the late-Knight-era NCAA beatdowns at the hands of Colorado (1997) and Pepperdine (2000).

As for the game (box score), there's not much to say. This was a fast game, 71 possessions per. IU's offensive numbers were roughly average. Defensively, IU's 1.44 points allowed per possession was the worst total of the season by far. Entering this game, IU had not allowed an effective field goal percentage of more than 58.8. MSU was at 71 yesterday. The Hoosiers shot well in the second half, 53 percent, and managed to pull within 17 points at the 10:36 mark, but a turnover and a mini-run by MSU ended any hope of a Kentucky-LSU type comeback. Certainly, it wasn't enough to offsets MSU's 75 percent shooting in the first half. IU actually did hold MSU to ten percentage points below its season offensive rebounding percentage, but MSU missed too few shots for that to matter. As for the individuals:

• Eric Gordon was respectable: 22 points on 7-14 anf 7-9, only 2 turnovers.
• Armon Bassett scored 13 points on 12 shots.
• Jordan Crawford scored 12 points on 8 shots.
• DJ White had a rough day: another double-double, but 5-13 from the field for 12 points.
• Everyone, everyone, everyone played poor defense.

Dan Dakich has a tough task. IU's schedule now eases up, with the home finale against Minnesota and a road trip to Penn State. Still, considering IU's performances at Northwestern and at home against Ohio State, losses are not out of the question. A similar defensive effort in either game could spell IU's demise.

The Michigan State game, part 2.

Michigan State Spartans

Current record: 22-6

Big Ten record: 10-5

Current RPI: 15

Current Sagarin: 18

2006-07 record: 22-11 (8-8)

2006-07 RPI: 24

2006-07 Sagarin: 20

Series: IU leads 64-42

Last IU win: 2/16/08 (80-61 in Bloomington)

Last MSU win: 2/24/07 (66-58 in East Lansing)

Last IU win in East Lansing: 2/28/91 (62-56)

TV: 2 pm today, CBS

Pomeroy Profile

Blogs: Enlightened Spartan, SpartyMSU, Spartans Weblog

Yeah, my multiday preview didn't pan out. If you missed it, here's my post from Thursday discussing IU's 13-game, 17-year losing streak in East Lansing.

Before I discuss the game, let me address the article that the Indianapolis Star passed off as a preview of today's game: Terry Hutchens wants to know whether this year's team is as good as the 1992-93 Hoosiers. Perhaps the Star needs a comedy section, or some sort of a sarcasm label. This can't be for real. To be clear, I love this year's team. DJ White is enjoying perhaps the best season by an IU player since Calbert Cheaney graduation, Eric Gordon has been great, and the team has done a great job of staying together under tough circumstances. But let's consider the 1992-93 Hoosiers. That year, IU returned six of its top seven scorers from a Final Four team. IU finished the season ranked #1 after going 31-3 against a tough schedule that included five games against eventual Final Four teams, and other games against top teams Florida State, Seton Hall, and Cincinnati. IU won the Big Ten by two games with a 17-1 record, including a season sweep of what may have been the most talented team in Big Ten history, the sophomore version of the Fab Five. Had Alan Henderson not injured his knee, IU would have been the favorite to win the NCAA title and likely would have gone 18-0 in the Big Ten.

Dan Dakich was wisely politically correct, but this IU team, even if it wins out, is looking at no better than a two seed, and the most realistic projection is a #4 seed. That anyone is even considering this comparison shows just how far IU's program has fallen and just how badly we need a coach who can restore greatness. It also shows, as does the continuous employment of Bob Kravitz, that the leaders of the Indianapolis Star hate central Indiana sports fans for some reason. Dennis Ryerson, what have we done to deserve this?

As for the game, the Spartans' disappointing decline has continued. Statistically, the Spartans look fine. They are, in typical Izzo fashion, among the nation's leading offensive rebounding teams and two point field goal percentage. They don't take care of the ball and don't force turnovers. Everything else looks fine. Still, MSU's early departure from the Big Ten race happened because the Spartans can't win on the road. MSU is 8-0 at home in the Big Ten and 2-5 on the road. The losses at IU, Purdue, and Wisconsin are excusable enough, but the road losses to Iowa and Penn State are not. And while MSU is 8-0 at home, the Spartans' games against Minnesota, Purdue, and Ohio State were fairly competitive. What's interesting about MSU's road losses is that while other statistics are all over the map, in the three losses to IU, Purdue, and Wisconsin, MSU has been far below its average in offensive rebound percentage (21.4, 20.8, 26.4). As KJ of Spartans Weblog pointed out before the last game, MSU's two point field goal effectiveness is mostly based on offensive rebounding. Accordingly, a team that can stop MSU from grabbing offensive boards will be in a great position to defeat MSU. An 14th consecutive loss at Breslin won't surprise me, but this is, it seems to me, IU's best chance in years to end the slide.

The long, long drought in East Lansing.

The four day break between games should allow the Hoosiers some opportunity to rest and regroup, and also allows me to roll out the preview of the latest version of "IU's biggest game of the year," Sunday's trip to the Breslin Center to take on Michigan State. While I didn't plan the post this way, it turns out that IU's last win at Michigan State was 17 years ago today, a 62-56 win on February 28, 1991. IU's oldest player, Lance Stemler, then was a couple of months past his sixth birthday. IU's youngest player, Eli Holman, was a month short of his second birthday. The only constants are the uniforms, the warmups, and Dan Dakich on the bench.

IU now has lost 13 in a row at the Breslin Center, and has won there only once since the facility opened in November 1989. Since that win, here are IU's Big Ten road records:

Illinois: 6-9

Iowa: 6-9

Michigan: 8-8

Minnesota: 4-9

Northwestern: 11-3

Ohio State: 7-8 (4-3 at St. John Arena, 3-5 at the Schottenstein Center)

Penn State: 10-3 (3-0 at Rec Hall, 7-3 at the Bryce Jordan Center)

Purdue: 5-10

Wisconsin: 6-8 (5-1 at the UW Fieldhouse, 1-7 at the Kohl Center)

This is IU's second-longest road losing streak against any Big Ten opponent. IU lost its first 19 trips to West Lafayette from 1901-1922 before winning there in 1922-23. MSU remains a formidable opponent, but IU certainly should break through at Breslin some time.

Indiana 80, Michigan State 61.

Under tough circumstances, IU kept its Big Ten title hopes alive and all-but-officially eliminated preseason favorite Michigan State from the equation. It was a tough game to watch in many respects, even though IU controlled the last 30 minutes. While the various man-on-the-street interviews made clear that IU fans know what will be done and what has to be done, this game was a tease, a last image of what might have been if Sampson had kept his nose clean during probation. I just feel sick about the whole thing, for the players, the students, the fans and alumni, for Sampson and his family. It didn't have to happen. In any event, Sampson can enter his exile with something to smile about if he move the Hoosiers back into the driver's seat with a win over Purdue on Tuesday.

Before I talk about the game, I'm going to violate Big Ten Wonk's commandment and complain about announcers. I feel comfortable doing so because Mr. Gasaway violated his own commandment earlier in the season:

The announcing team working the game last night posed a constant and intractable obstacle between viewers and the game. Which, not to put too fine a point on it, is pretty much the precise opposite of what an announcing team is supposed to do.

I literally found myself leaning in toward the TV and squinting at the screen, as if that would help me follow what Gerald Henderson was doing while the announcers went happily and blissfully AWOL, addressing such pressing matters as Ronde Barber, the new College Basketball Experience in Kansas City and, inevitably, Jimmy V.

This announcing team has been tarred on occasion with the easy catch-all pejorative "ESPN," but let us be clear. It's not ESPN. Jay Bilas, Bill Raftery and Sean McDonough share a water cooler with these guys, yet they're consistently outstanding. No, it's simply that last night's announcing team has apparently been given free reign by someone in the organizational chart to ignore the game whenever they want. Which, as it happens, is very often. That's worse than annoying. It's unprofessional in the most literal sense of the term. Anyone else in the world is free to talk about whatever they want to talk about. Last night's announcing team, on the other hand, was paid specifically to talk about Wisconsin vs. Duke. They should have tried it from time to time.

Gasaway didn't mention the main culprit by name. Because he knows that his work is read mostly by avid college basketball fans, he didn't have to. I'm not so nice. Dick Vitale, once a solid commentator known for catch phrases inserted into actual analysis, has for at least a decade been a Saturday Night Live parody of himself. Sometime, on ESPN Classic or the Big Ten Network, watch a game called by Vitale from the early 1990s or before. He actually talks about the game transpiring before his eye! Now, the game is merely incidental. It merely provides Vitale with a platform from which he can say whatever pops in to his mind, and usually it's something that every serious college basketball fan has heard from Vitale dozens of times. He certainly does nothing to enlighten his audience about basketball. The most telling moment of last night's game was when he expressed surprise about IU's use of a zone defense. Vitale was correct that IU, historically and under Sampson, typically has played man defense. But is it unreasonable to expect a man who is paid millions of dollars to serve, ostensibly, as the "basketball expert" half of the announcing tandem might watch some film? In their last 130 minutes of basketball prior to the MSU game, the Hoosiers played probably 75-80 minutes of zone defense: about 30 minutes of the Illinois game, practically all of the OSU game, and a few minutes of the Wisconsin game. That moment was a perfect illustration of what Vitale brings to the table these days: nothing.

I should say that by all accounts, public and private, Vitale is a nice man, generous with his time and money and always considerate to fans that he meets. But the caliber of his work shows a certain level of laziness and narcissism. He believes that his non-game-related thoughts are more important than the game. And he doesn't do his homework even for the tired old material. For years after Knight was fired, Vitale droned on about how IU should name the basketball court after Knight, not realizing that the court already was named after IU's two-time NCAA champion coach Branch McCracken. After someone clued him in, he began clamoring for the naming of Assembly Hall after Knight. Now, I think that would be a great thing, but has Vitale ever done any legwork as to whether Knight would welcome such an honor or would even show up for the ceremony? All public indications are that Knight would not, but that doesn't deter Vitale, who said it twice in the first eight minutes of the game.

I understand that the Sampson story is news. But the ESPN Gameday crew broadcast two hours from Bloomington on Saturday, and handled it proportionately, even if I didn't agree with all of the analysis. After two hours of coverage of off-the-court stuff, it would have been nice if the announcers could have called the game, mostly. But again, that would require doing the sort of homework that most commentators do but that Dick Vitale outgrew years ago.

And now, back to the game. Here's the box score. While MSU hasn't lived up to expectations, this was IU's finest performance of the year, with no close competition. MSU shot only 46 percent from the field, and that was aided by an uncharacteristically good 7-14 performance from three. The Spartans shot only 45 percent from inside the arc, where they usually shoot 53 percent. While the zone provided MSU with some three point opportunities, the Spartans struggled in the areas where they usually excel. That IU maintained control of the game despite DJ White's (hopefully minor) knee injury was impressive. Perhaps I shouldn't be too hard on Dick Vitale--Izzo's charges seemed genuinely surprised by the zone, and turned the ball over 19 times in a 67 possession game (compared to 10 for IU), often on tipped passes. The Spartans, who per KJ's (of Spartans Weblog) comment to yesterday's preview post, MSU scores lots of points on offensive rebounding, but MSU corralled only 5 of its 27 misses yesterday. IU was much the same, but such scoring isn't IU's bread and butter. That's 18.7 OR percentage for a team that usually grabs 41 percent of its own misses. Again, considering that IU played much of the game without DJ White and in a zone defense, that's simply outstanding.

The individuals:

• Gordon was Gordon, 28 points on 15 shots.
• Jamarcus Ellis was great, 12 points on 7 shots plus his usual good play.
• Armon Bassett didn't shoot well but managed five assists and one turnover.
• Jordan Crawford scored well, 12 points on 10 shots, but the turnovers (3) are back.
• Deandre Thomas provided some much needed offense: 10 points on nine shots, but he still committed 3 fouls in 16 minutes. That will have to improve next year.
• Kyle Taber's mistake free ball continues: 2 points, no FG attempts, 2 rebounds, 0 turnovers, 1 steal.

It speaks well of these players and Sampson that the team remained focused and didn't panic after falling behind early. Now, it's time to prepare for the biggest IU-Purdue game since the early 1990s. IU will need DJ, as I don't think the zone will work, at least not for the entire game, against Purdue's various three point threats. It should be fun, at least.

The Michigan State game.

Michigan State Spartans

Current record: 20-4

Big Ten record: 8-3

Current RPI: 14

Current Sagarin: 16

2006-07 record:22-11 (8-8)

2006-07 RPI: 24

2006-07 Sagarin: 20

Series: IU leads 63-42

Last IU win: 1/7/07 (73-51 in Bloomington)

Last MSU win: 2/24/07 (66-58 in East Lansing)

Last MSU win in Bloomington: 2/8/03 (67-62)

TV: 9 pm, ESPN

Pomeroy Profile

Basketball intervenes, again. Michigan State, not surprisingly since the Spartans are 20-4, looks good in all efficiency measures. Th Spartans are #7 in offensive rebounding, somewhat average in defensive rebounding. MSU doesn't take good care of the ball (#209 in offensive turnover possession). The Spartans don't shoot many three pointers, but prefer to pound the ball inside. MSU shoots on 53 percent from two point range. IU has struggled this year against interior-oriented teams.

Not much to say about this one. Unfortunately, what should have been one of the biggest games of the season feels secondary. Still, IU will remain in the Big Ten hunt if the Hoosiers can win the next two at home. We'll see.

Remaining schedules for Big Ten contenders.

With the Big Ten season past the halfway point and with several games between the contenders in the next week (MSU at Purdue tonight; Wisconsin at IU tomorrow; MSU at IU on Saturday; Purdue at IU next Tuesday;), the Big Ten race will be much more predictable a week from tomorrow. This post includes a snapshot of what each of the four contenders faces for the rest of the season. For the purposes of this post, the top tier includes Purdue, IU, Wisconsin, and MSU; the middle tier includes Ohio State, Minnesota, and Iowa; and the basement includes Penn State, Michigan, Illinois, and Northwestern.

To clarify the two Pomeroy categories below: Pomeroy predicts (his model does, not Ken Pomeroy himself) each individual game, but also predicts an overall record (accounting for luck, etc.) that does not necessarily correspond to the individual predictions. For instance, Pomeroy predicts Wisconsin to finish with a 14-4 record, but the only specific loss predicted is the IU game.

Purdue

Current record: 10-1

Games remaining: 7

Top tier home games: 1 (MSU 2/12)

Top tier road games: 1 (IU 2/19)

Middle tier home games: 1 (Minnesota 2/27)

Middle tier road games: 1 (OSU 3/4)

Basement home games: 1 (Northwestern 3/1)

Basement road games: 2 (Northwestern 2/16; Michigan 3/9)

Pomeroy's projected conference record: 15-3

Pomeroy's game-by-game projected record: 15-3

Indiana

Current record: 9-1

Games remaining: 8

Top tier home games: 3 (Wisconsin 2/13; MSU 2/16; Purdue 2/19)

Top tier road games: 1 (MSU 3/2)

Middle tier home games: 2 (OSU 2/26; Minnesota 3/5)

Middle tier road games: 0

Basement home games: 0

Basement road games: 2 (Northwestern 2/23; Penn State 3/8)

Pomeroy's projected conference record: 15-3

Pomeroy's game-by-game projected record: 16-2

Wisconsin

Current record: 9-2

Games remaining: 7

Top tier home games: 1 (MSU 2/28)

Top tier road games: 1 (IU 2/13)

Middle tier home games: 1 (Minnesota 2/16)

Middle tier road games: 1 (OSU 2/24)

Basement home games: 1 (Penn State 3/5)

Basement road games: 2 (Illinios 3/20; Northwestern 3/8)

Pomeroy's projected conference record: 14-4

Pomeroy's game-by-game projected record: 15-3

Michigan State

Current record: 8-2

Games remaining: 8

Top tier home games:1 (IU 3/2)

Top tier road games: 3 (Purdue 2/12; IU 2/16; Wisconsin 2/28)

Middle tier home games: 1 (Iowa 2/23)

Middle tier road games: 1 (OSU 3/9)

Basement home games: 1 (Penn State 2/20)

Basement road games: 1 (Illinois 3/4)

Pomeroy's projected conference record: 12-6

Pomeroy's game-by-game projected record: 12-6

Random thoughts:

• If Pomeroy's projected records hold up, IU and Purdue will tie for the conference title at 15-3, with the #1 seed dependent on whether IU's "unpredicted" loss is the home game against Purdue.
• If Pomeroy's game-by-game predictions hold up, IU will win the conference with a record of 16-2, one game ahead of 15-3 Purdue.
• I would never bet against an Izzo-coached team, but Pomeroy says the Spartans are done. MSU may decide the Big Ten race by beating Purdue, IU and/or Wisconsin on the road, but the Spartans will have to play amazingly well to grab a share for themselves.
• If Ohio State doesn't make the tournament, it won't be for lack of late-season opportunity: MSU, Purdue, and Wisconsin all have to go to Columbus.
• Purdue and Wisconsin have functionally identical schedules for the rest of the season. They play the same top and middle tier opponents home and away.
• IU is the only team with empty categories, playing to middle tier road games (good) and no basement home games (too bad).

MSU stats.

Now that I'm in a good mood, let's talk about the prison rape perpetrated by Javon Ringer and the Spartans against the hapless Hoosiers Saturday night. Here are the stats, in all their perverse glory. I'm not sure why I am bothering, frankly. Anyone who saw the game knows that breaking down the box score will yield no special insights. IU was outgained 558-193, and gained only 22 yards on the ground. Kellen Lewis has one nice run that was almost entirely negated by sacks. MSU possessed the ball for over 41 minutes and ran 90 plays to IU's 36. MSU ran the ball 67 f-ing times, and gained 368 yards for 5.5 per carry. Javon Ringer was right on his season average of 7 yards per carry. I thought the two key plays were the MSU fake field goal and the James Bailey fumble on the kickoff. Absent those plays, IU might have been able to fall into a shootout with MSU like NU did. Still, probably not. I don't think that MSU team that we saw Saturday night had made an appearance yet this season.

Of course, Penn State absolutely obliterated Wisconsin. Before Saturday, I had convinced myself that IU had a reasonable chance to win both the MSU and PSU games. Now, not so much.

And here's a thought on the Hoosiers and their efforts to become bowl eligible. IU last played in a bowl game in 1993. The 1994 team waqs eligible at 6-5 (7-4 in the record books because of a MSU forfeit, but really 6-5) , but did not get an invite. That team started 5-1, before the entire thing went south with a homecoming loss to Northwestern. The Hoosiers lost four in a row before winning the Bucket game at Purdue. Last season, IU improved to 5-4 with a win over MSU, but then lost badly at Minnesota, lost to Michigan, and lost at Purdue. With last night's loss tacked on, since the 1993 Independence Bowl, IU is 1-8 in games in which the Hoosiers could clinch bowl eligiblity. With Penn State and Wisconsin up next, that streak could grow.

MSU - in game post.

• 17-7. This was the concern, of course. We can't stop them, and the 59 yarder almost worked against us. I actually breathed a sigh of relief when Dantonio kicked the FG. Anyone think they couldn't have had two yards against us?
• Nice return on the 17-7 kickoff by Bailey, but hell, I'm almost glad Bailey was tackled. We need some plays from scrimmage to let the defense rest.
• Austin Starr for all-American. Other than the one against Illinois, has hit hit a tougher one? 17-10, and if the defense finds a way to get a stop or a TO, we can stay in it.
• First quarter stats: Sparty has an edge, 170 to 55, although Bailey's nice kick return skews that. 6.3 yards per rush for MSU.
• 64 yard TD. We are going to lose very, very badly unless MSU starts making mistakes.
• I like the BTN in principle, but the production can be brutal. I wonder if anyone on the crew knows that MSU's key competition for the Rose Bowl was IU? That might have been an interesting question.
• I shouldn't complain, but why in the world would they pass on third and 3? The only thing our defense does well is rush the passer, and we can't stop the run? Thanks for outsmarting yourself, MSU.
• Not good. Short possession, short field.
• Nice stop, and the bomb to Hardy. Let's stay in this.
• impressive pass rush by MSU.
• Austin Starr has a deal with the devil. 24-13. Hanging on by a thread. How about a turnover here?
• Just pathetic. We had them pinned and let the QB run for a first down.
• We get the ball in half two. The whole complexion of the game depends on whether MSU scores here.
• Nice little salvage job by the defense. Interesting that MSU called the timeout. Shot into the end zone seems more likely than a 50+ fg.
• We got dominated, and we're down 11 with the ball. Could be worse.

Halftime stats: hideous. MSU has 15 first downs to 2. 295 yards to 194. 5-11 on third down to 0-4. 2-2 on fourth down. IU has a slight edge in passing yards, 68 to 63, but Hoyer is 12-14. Rushing, MSU has 232 to IU's 56. Lewis's opening run was 59 yards, so IU is in the negative in rushing other than the one play (of course, sacks come in to play on that total). Bailey's fumble on the kick return is the only turnover of the game. IU has run only 14 plays to 49 for MSU.

All that said, and it's an 11 point game. A touchdown drive by IU would make this a game again. I thought there were a couple of times where MSU took its foot off of IU's throat. We'll see if the Spartans pay for that.

• Three and out to start the half. The defense is going to have to hang in there for another possession.
• 31-13. Probably not our night. The half began exactly as it couldn't.
• As if the running game isn't enough, Hoyer and his receivers have been very precise tonight, even against solid coverage.
• 45-13. It's all over. This bloodbath is going to kill the crowd next week. The balding frat boys will stay in the parking lot, just like when they were students.
• 45-20, long TD to Hardy. Just enough to keep me from turning it off, I guess.
• Hmm. 45-28, Tracy Porter returns a fumble a long way.
• Time of possession: 32 to 15. It's fairly amazing that the defense is still putting up a fight.
• IU has not fared well in games in which bowl eligibility is on the line.
• The clock will now run out, soon, hopefully.
• Stats sometime tomorrow. A thorough beatdown.

The Old Brass Spittoon.

The IU-MSU game, the game for the Old Brass Spittoon, may be the Big Ten's least-known "trophy game." I would much rather have a pig-on-a-pedestal, but there's nothing that can be done about that now. Frankly, as a "trophy game" it seems just as forced as the Land Grant Trophy "rivalry" concocted when Penn State joined the Big Ten. The IU and MSU campuses aren't close together, there is no real history of a rivalry, and the schools played only seven times before MSU joined the Big Ten in 1953.

The participants themselves sometimes have forgotten about the trophy . The only reference I could find to this incident is in an old MSU message board post, but it's fairly well-known in Hoosier circles. In 1991, MSU lost to IU 31-0 in Bloomington, IU's first win in the series since 1986. After the game, the Spartans failed to turn over the Spittoon because they had left it behind in East Lansing. After an incensed Bill Mallory threatened to have an assistant coach drive to MSU to claim the trophy, the Spartans promised to send it. Some time later, a MSU staffer mailed the Spittoon...to the University of Iowa. IU has defeated MSU only three times since then: 1993 and 2006 in Bloomington, 2001 in East Lansing (MSU later forfeited the 1994 game, but the Spartans won on the field). Given the history, it's a good idea for IU to hold on to the Spittoon whenever possible. It would be a shame for it to end up buried in the back of MSU's trophy case again, or the victim of geographic confusion.

MSU stats.

The Spartans have the look of an solid offensive team. Brian Hoyer is completing abotu 57 percent of his pass attempts with 10 touchdowns and only 3 interceptions. The Spartan running game will provide a challenge for IU's apparently improved defensive line: Javon Ringer averages 121 yards per game at 7.1 per carry (!) and 4 touchdowns. Jehuu Caulcrick averages 67.5 per game, 4.4 per carry, and has scored 10 touchdowns.

As for how the teams measure up? IU remains second in the Big Ten at 37.5 ppg, while MSU averages 34.3 (3rd). MSU is second in yards per game, IU is third. Both teams are well-balanced. MSU has 1331 rushing yards and 1380 passing yards; IU has 1211 and 1477. Defensively, IU remains in the middle of the pack with 20.8 points per game allowed; MSU allows 24.5. Both teams are middling in yards allowed; no unit is as conspicuous as was Minnesota's pass defense last week. Both teams allow 3.2 yards per run. Opposing quarterbacks complete over 62 percent of their passes against MSU, as opposed to 55 against IU.

Frankly, there isn't much to distinguish these teams. Given the venue, MSU's status as comfortable favorite seems warranted, but an IU win would be no surprise.

Initial thoughts on Sparty.

Michigan State Spartans

2007 record: 4-2 (0-2)

2007 Sagarin: 50 (IU is #49)

2006 record: 4-8
2006 Sagarin: 80
Series: Michigan State leads, 38-15-2

Last IU win: 2006, 46-21 in Bloomington

Last MSU win: 2005, 46-15 in East Lansing

Last IU win in East Lansing: 2001 (37-28)

There are a couple of conventional schools of thought about Michigan State. The first is that MSU will start strong and collapse after some particularly gut-wrenching loss. Last year, it was the collapse against Notre Dame. This year, the vultures are circling after last week's loss to Northwestern. The other school of thought, advanced by mgoblog (I'm paraphrasing, too busy to look it up right now) is that MSU is substantially certain to be within a game of .500, but the result of any individual game is utterly unpredictable, i.e., MSU could lose to Northwestern but stomp Ohio State. I suppose that both theories work in IU's favor. If the NU game was the beginning of the fall, then IU is in the right place at the right time. If one subscribes to the "any given game" theory, then IU's status as the Vegas underdog (5-7 points, depending on who you believe) actually works in the Hoosiers' favor. Frankly, I don't know what to expect. MSU is always talented, and this will be the first non-MAC road night game in a while. The 2001 NC State game was a Thursday night game. Other than some trips to the Metrodome in the 1990s, I can't recall IU playing a true Big Ten night game (I'm not counting 3:30 games in November that end after dark). If I'm forgetting something, let me know. In any event, even if Spartan fans are a bit subdued after last week, it should be the most challenging atmosphere that IU has seen in a while.

Aside from the intangibles, how do these Spartans look? Unlike most Big Ten schools (I think Purdue and Michigan are the only others), MSU has completed its nonconference schedule. To date, MSU has played four BCS/ND teams compared to IU's three. MSU's nonconference schedule included Pitt and Notre Dame, two of the worst big-time programs this season. MSU defeated Pitt by three in East Lansing. While comparative scores are always of limited value, Pitt has two unimpressive wins and was spanked by Connecticut and Virginia. In the Big Ten, MSU lost a competitive game to Wisconsin on the road and lost to NU last week, of course. So, like IU, MSU has lost to the only above average team it has played so far.

Unfortunately, no time for stats right now. More later.

The season that was, games 9/10/11: Indiana 46, Michigan State 21; Minnesota 63, Indiana 26; Michigan 34, Indiana 3.

Michigan State

Date: 10/28/06
Location: Memorial Stadium, Bloomington, Ind.
Box score/stats
Attendance: 36444

Historically, it’s rare for a Hoosier team to whip a non-Northwestern Big Ten opponent into submission, so I tried to savor last season’s MSU whipping as it transpired. The last time IU played a reeling, coach-killing MSU team was 2002, the game after Bob Williams resigned, and while the Spartans looked vulnerable then, they pistolwhipped IU. Not so in 2006. MSU managed a quick 10 play, 80 yard drive to start the game and then allowed 46 points in a row to the Hoosiers. Kellen Lewis threw five touchdown passes, including four to James Hardy. IU won the first down battle 26-8 and outgained the Spartans 446-215. MSU managed 79 yards in the fourth quarter, meaning that at the end of the third, MSU had only 136 yards of offense. Lewis was 15-22, an while it he throw an interception, it was inconsequential and came late in the fourth quarter when IU led by 32. Marcus Thigpen lead IU with 104 yards rushing on 20 carries and Lewis added 75 on 14 carries. I don’t expect this game to tell us much about this season. MSU was a really odd team. I hesitate to say that the Spartans had quit, because this game came only a week after MSU’s amazing comeback at Northwestern. Still, it’s a new day in East Lansing. IU rarely does this to a Big Ten opponent, so I choose to savor the memory of this game standing alone. Unfortunately, the MSU game was the Hoosiers’ last win of the season.



Minnesota

Date: 11/4/06
Location: Hubert H. Humphrey Metrodome, Minneapolis, Minn.
Box Score/stats
Attendance: 44,610

After the MSU game, the Hoosiers were within a game of their first bowl game since 1993. The only home game remaining was against then second-ranked Michigan, so IU fans pinned their hopes on the road games against Minnesota and Purdue, two solid but uneven teams. Unfortunately, the Hoosiers performance at the Metrodome was a disaster. IU played as poorly as had the Spartans in Bloomington a week earlier. Minnesota led 35-0 less than halfway through the second quarter. IU never pulled closer than 21. Bryan Cupito embarrassed the IU defense, throwing four touchdowns and for 378 yards on 33 attempts. Kellen Lewis continued to accumulate some numbers (321 yards) but threw two interceptions and was relieved by Blake Powers late in the game. As was too often the case, Lewis was IU’s only viable rushing threat. This game was a bitter blow to IU fans and halted the momentum of the program. With Michigan upcoming, all eyes were on the Bucket game.

Michigan
Date: 11/11/06
Location: Memorial Stadium, Bloomington, Ind.
Box score/stats
Attendance: 42,320
As with the OSU game, there’s not much to say about a whipping administered by a top five team that IU doesn’t play until 2009. IU’s 131 yard offensive output was the worst of the year. Ball State, by scoring some points late against Michigan a week earlier, erased any hope that the Hoosier might sneak up on the Wolverines.