Friday, November 7, 2008

Last gasp: the Wisconsin game.

Wisconsin Badgers
2008 record: 4-5 (1-5)
2008 Sagarin: 52 (IU is #91)
2007 record: 9-4 (lost to Tennessee in Outback Bowl)
2007 Sagarin: 36
Series: Wisconsin leads 34-18-2
Last IU win: 10/12/2002 (32-29 in Bloomington)
Last Wisconsin win: 10/27/2007 (33-3 in Madison)
Last Wisconsin win in Bloomington: 9/30/2006 (52-17)
TV: Noon, BTN

Sorry about the late preview. I spent 15 hours on Tuesday working the polls and have been trying to recover in terms of sleep and work ever since. Thanks to the disappointing loss to Central Michigan, IU's bowl hopes have dwindled to nearly nothing. IU is 3-6 and must win all of its remaining games. Next week, IU travels to #3 Penn State, and it's no exaggeration to say that a win there would be one of the biggest upsets in the history of the Big Ten. IU, Purdue, Michigan, and Wisconsin are all in a tough race for "most disappointing team," but at least the first three teams on that list were expected to be mediocre. The Badgers, on the other hand, ranked #12 in the preseason AP poll, went 21-5 in Bret Bielema's first two years, and early in the season beat then-number 21 Fresno State on the road. Since then, Wisconsin has been mostly competitive, but the Badgers 1-5 conference record places them all alone in 11th place (since the expansion of the conference, has there been anything worse than finishing last? Finishing 11th in something called "the Big Ten" adds insult to injury). The Badgers lost badly to Penn State and Iowa, but blew a huge lead at Michigan, lost to Ohio State by 3, and blew a game at Michigan State. With games against IU, Minnesota, and Cal Poly, Wisconsin remains alive for a bowl bid with a 4-5 record, but the Badgers may be the biggest disappointment in college football. Still, as bad as Wisconsin's record is, the oddsmakers favor the Badgers by more than a touchdown, and UW's win's against Fresno and Illinois are far more impressive than anything IU has done, sad as that may seem.

Wisconsin ranks #21 in Division I-A in rushing offense, #44 in total offense, and #38 in total defense. There numbers suggest a decent, competitive team. The Badgers' passing game has been ineffective: both Dustin Sherer and Alan Evridge are completing less than 54 percent of their passes. PJ Hill and John Clay, averaging 4.7 and 5.7 yards per rush, respectively, are the heart of the UW offense.

In summary, both teams are disappointing, but IU has its hands full.

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