The Illinois game.

Illinois Fighting Illini
2008 record: 3-3 (1-2)
2008 Sagarin: 50 (IU is #90)
2007 record: (lost to USC in Rose Bowl)
2007 Sagarin: 30
Series: Illinois leads 42-20-2
Last IU win: 2006, 34-32 in Champaign
Last Illinois win: 2007, 27-14 in Bloomington

Because of personal circumstances, there could be some outages in the next week or two. I'll do my best to keep up, especially with basketball practice beginning Friday night, but no guarantees.

Football season continues, at least technically. The math for bowl eligibility is fairly daunting. For IU to have any prospect of postseason play, IU must go 4-2 in the second half of the season. Even if IU can beat Central Michigan, beat Northwestern, and find a way to beat Purdue in Joe Tiller's home finale, IU still would need to win either at Illinois, at Penn State, or at home against Wisconsin to get to 6-6. To get to unconditional bowl eligibility at 7-5, IU would need to win two of those games. In other words, we lost our margin of error a couple of losses ago, and will need to somehow completely remake the season to have any hope of anything. Really, 5-7 would at least give us some hope for 2009, but 2-10 isn't out of the question.

Illinois, without Rashard Mendenhall but with plenty of talent returning, doesn't seem to be on par with last year's Big Ten runner-up and Rose Bowl team, but IU historically has stuggled in Champaign. Before IU's 2006 win, the Hoosiers had not won there since 1979. And IU has always been glad to help the Illini when they were struggling. In 1996 and 2004, IU losses in Champaign prevented IU from going 0-8 in the Big Ten.

This is, according to the Big Ten office, a rivalry game. While not quite as contrived as the Land Grant Trophy, IU and Illinois don't have any long history with each other. Frankly, matching Illinois and Purdue and IU and Northwestern might have made more sense--Purdue and Illinois are as geographically close as any Big Ten campuses and IU and Northwestern are in a feverish battle for 10th place in the historical rankings.

Juice Williams has improved dramatically as a passer. Williams is completing 58 percent of his passes and has tied his career high with 13 touchdown passes. He is averaging 279 yards per game, compared to 134 last year. And he remains dangerous as a runner, with 4.4 yards per carry and 4 rushing touchdowns. Williams leads the Illini with 101 rushing attempts, but Daniel Dufresne has been solid, with 79.7 yards per game and 5.7 yards per carry. If IU's previous games are any indication, Dufresne will have a huge day against us. The Illini offense ranks second in the Big Ten in scoring offense, total offense, passing yards, and first downs per game (stats can be deceiving--IU still remains highly ranked in some of these categories). It hasn't been as pretty on the defensive side. Illinois ranks dead last in points allowed (IU is #10), 8th in total offense (IU is 7th). Illinois has accumulated its statistics against the #22 schedule, IU against the #65 schedule. The 17-point spread seems about right.

The Hoosier Scoop reports that Kellen Lewis is questionable for Saturday's game with an ankle sprain. A win on Saturday, despite the Illini's struggles, would be a huge upset, unfortunately.

CBSSports.com Blogpoll draft ballot, week 7.

I alluded to this last week, but the Blogpoll is now the CBSSports.com Blogpoll and will be shown right next to the AP and Coaches Poll. One of the changes is that the draft ballots that participants post on Mondays now will become a preliminary poll, with the aggrieved encouraged to contact voters with whom they disagree. In any event, here's my ballot. As always, go to mgoblog for the full poll. I watched IU-Iowa, ND-North Carolina, and parts of a few others.

Rank	Team	Delta
1	Texas	1
2	Alabama	1
3	Penn State	5
4	Oklahoma State	8
5	Oklahoma	2
6	Texas Tech	1
7	Florida	4
8	Brigham Young	2
9	Georgia	1
10	Southern Cal	1
11	LSU	7
12	Ohio State	1
13	Missouri	8
14	Utah	1
15	Kansas	1
16	Boise State	1
17	Wake Forest	9
18	California	3
19	South Florida	4
20	Michigan State	2
21	Ball State	1
22	North Carolina	2
23	Pittsburgh	3
24	Vanderbilt	10
25	Tulsa	1

Dropped Out: Auburn (#18), Illinois (#19), Northwestern (#25).

Season-ender: Iowa 45, Indiana 9.

I don't have any delusions about IU's place in the college football universe as compared to Iowa or anyone else. We're near the bottom, both historically and recently. Still, we went 7-5 last year and entered this season with a schedule that was among the two or three easiest to be played by any BCS conference program. Sure, we lost some key players--James Hardy, Tracy Porter, Leslie Majors most notably--but returned a bunch of good ones as well, or at least what seemed to be good ones. Although it is Bill Lynch's first "normal" season as head coach, it's also the fourth season that this particular staff, with remarkably little turnover absent the conspicuous exception, has been together. I don't think I was crazy or wildly optimistic to think that this team would contend for another bowl berth. Today's game ended any lingering delusions mathematically and psychologically. Despite returning an all Big Ten quarterback, an all-American defensive end, loads of starters on all sides of the ball, and even an all-American kicker, this team is horrid. Iowa, which was quite deserving of its win today--duh--isn't very good. Sure, they have played and lost some close games, but a quick look at the schedule reveals a very difficult path to 7 wins. They may as well have been USC today. IU's program seems to have instantly regressed to Dinardo levels. We are likely to go 2-10 against a horseshit schedule.

Box score. Enjoy. It sucks.

Basketball media day.

I don't have much time today, so here is a link to Inside the Hall's media day linkfest. The summary: who the hell are these guys? Rich Bozich has a nice column, which includes a mention of an open tryout for walk-ons.

There is a game this week: first look at Iowa.

Iowa Hawkeyes

2008 record: 3-3 (0-2)

2008 Sagarin: 47 (IU is #83)

2007 record: 6-6
2007 Sagarin: 79

Series: Iowa leads 38-27-4

Last IU win: 9/29/07, 38-20 in Iowa City

Last Iowa win: 10/15/05, 38-21 in Iowa City

Last Iowa win in Bloomington: 10/19/02 (24-8)

IU's surprising win at Iowa was one of the highlights of last season, and was one of the main reasons that Iowa failed to qualify for a bowl for the first time since 2000. From 2002 through 2004, Iowa appeared to be building a program that would prennially contend for the Big Ten title, but the last three seasons have disappointed, and the Hawkeyes join IU and Wisconsin as the only 0-2 Big Ten teams. Iowa, after opening the season with wins over Maine, Florida International, and Iowa State, has lost three in a row to Pitt, Northwestern, and Michigan State. Iowa's next three games after this one are against Wisconsin, @ Illinois, and Penn State, so it's fair to say that this game means as much to Iowa's postseason fortunes as it means to IU's. This is, sadly, the most winnable Big Ten game remaining on IU's schedule, but Iowa is a 5.5 point favorite in Bloomington. Unlike IU, Iowa hasn't looked terrible: its three losses are by a total of 8 points.

Iowa hasn't scored a lot of points, but running back Shonn Greene is having a great season, averaging 6.4 yards per carry. He has run for 822 yards and 5 touchdowns. I really don't have much time for detail right now, but again, this is a big game for both teams. Iowa has lost 3 overall and two against IU, and so I expect the Hawkeyes will be motivated. I have no remaining optimism after last week's disaster in Minnesota, but I hope the team and staff prove me wrong.

Blogpoll draft ballot, week 6.

Here's the draft of my ballot. You will notice a new look. Please check in with the tsar of the blogpoll, mgoblog, for details. Suggestions welcome as always.

Rank	Team	Delta
1	Alabama	--
2	Texas	--
3	Oklahoma	--
4	LSU	--
5	Missouri	--
6	Brigham Young	--
7	Texas Tech	--
8	Penn State	--
9	Southern Cal	1
10	Georgia	1
11	Florida	1
12	Oklahoma State	1
13	Ohio State	4
14	Vanderbilt	5
15	Utah	--
16	Kansas	2
17	Boise State	3
18	Auburn	--
19	Illinois	3
20	Ball State	4
21	California	5
22	Michigan State	4
23	South Florida	14
24	North Carolina	2
25	Northwestern	1

Dropped Out: Oregon (#16), Wisconsin (#21), Connecticut (#23), Kentucky (#25).

Nothing too remarkable at the top. I plunged South Florida. I still don't have much regard for Pitt. I may well move the Bulls up a bit before the ballot goes final.

Offensive (or not): Minnesota 16, Indiana 7.

Hopefully I'll have more time to address the Minnesota game in more detail. For now, here's the box score. This was a shamefully pathetic performance in every aspect of the offense. The two quarterback setup and the quick kick are straight out of the Cam Cameron playbook. The defense played reasonably well. Minnesota accumulated some yards, but the defense hung in there, even the battered secondary. It was nice to see a pass rush, for once. If you had told me before the game that IU would sack Adam Weber four times, would outgain Minnesota by 2 yards per play, and would allow only 16 points, I would consider the odds of a win roughly 80 percent likely. The offense was horrid, and while I should give some credit to Minnesota's defense, it's hard for me to believe that they have improved that much. IU had one good play, period. While the pass interference call that preserved Minnesota's game-sealing drive was horrid, I don't believe for a second that the IU offense would have done anything with the ball. We're at square one, and if we lose to Iowa on Saturday, it's hard to imagine that IU will salvage anything from this once-promising season.

Q&A with The Daily Gopher.

As I've done before, I did a quick Q&A with the Daily Gopher, a new Minnesota blog that is a joint effort between the former publishers of Gopher Nation and Paging Jim Shikenjanski. Tom, formerly of GN, submitted some questions to me and I to him. His answers to my questions are below, and my answers will be posted at TDG sometime today. My questions are in crimson and the answers are in gold.

1. I won't ask if the Gophers have improved, because obviously they have. What are the major areas of improvement, and what do you expect for the Big Ten season.

Athleticism on defense is the biggest area of improvement. This is hard to quantify but a few JUCO transfers and a couple position changes have made this defense faster and better equipped to defend at a Big Ten level. The 2007 version was illequipped to defend the pass and was often out of position all over the field. Not being in position made it hard to tackle on the rush and left receivers wide open. Fast forward to 2008 and we are now close enough to receivers to break up passes, we are fast enough to actually pressure a quarterback and we are closing running lanes faster. This is leading to not as many yards allowed, being in the right place to get turnovers and getting teams off the field on third down more often.

2. I sort of lost track of the story and I'm too lazy to use the Google: Tim Brewster shocked many when he signed Indianapolis Ben Davis quarterback Marqueis Gray, but Gray ran into some academic trouble before the season. Has there been any resolution? Will Gray ever play a down for the Gophers?

No resolution to date. He is retaking his ACT and those results will determine his future. The program and the recruiting services who talk with Gray all beleive his plans are still to attend Minnesota in January, but the longer this drags out my hope diminishes. Nothing would please me more than to see him wearing maroon and gold next fall, but he has some hurdles to overcome.

3. Adam Weber and Eric Decker are well-known, but who else should the Hoosiers worry about on Saturday?

Outside of Decker there really is no great receiving threat. Brewster brought in a handful of talented and athletic wide receivers with his 2008 recruiting class but to date none have contributed more than one reception on the season. There has been talk this week that one or two may be ready to step up and contribute and fans in Gopher Nation are anxious to see it happen. If given the opportunity watch out for a breakout game from someone like Brandon Green, DaJon McKnight or Xavier Brandon. In the running game, true freshman DeLeon Eskridge has stepped up nicely into the workhorse role. He won't be mistaken for Laurence Maroney or Marion Barber but he is showing flashes of some explosiveness. If ignored he too could break out for some big plays.

Yeah, what can I say, it was a busy week, so I didn't ask as much as I would have liked, but thanks to the Daily Gopher.

The Minnesota game.

Minnesota Golden Gophers

2008 record: 4-1

2008 Sagarin: 33 (IU is #97)

2007 record: 1-11 (0-8)

2007 Sagarin: 123

Series: Minnesota leads 36-26-3

Last IU win: 2007, 40-20 in Bloomington

Last Minnesota win: 2007, 63-26 in Minneapolis

Last IU win in Minneapolis: 10/2/1993 (23-19)

It's only October 1, but IU now is entering the must-win portion of its schedule. To get to seven wins, which probably will be necessary to secure a bowl bid, IU must win five of its final eight games. Here's how I would rank the remaining games in order of difficulty, from toughest to easiest:

1. @ Penn State

2. Wisconsin

3. @ Illinois

4. @ Purdue

5. Northwestern

6. @Minnesota

7. Iowa

8. Central Michigan

Certainly, IU has a fairly easy schedule this year: a nonconference slate with no BCS conference teams, no Michigan or Ohio State. Still, what the schedule lacks at the top doesn't necessarily translate to the bottom. There isn't a gimme left on the schedule. CMU is a co-favorite in the MAC along with Ball State, Iowa is underachieving but certainly has some talent, Minnesota is on the road, IU simply can't seem to win a close game against Northwestern, and Purdue, while not very impressive so far, will be playing for the Bucket and in Joe Tiller's last home game. IU either needs to win all of the games ranked above ad #4-#8, or make up the difference by beating Penn State or Illinois on the road or Wisconsin at home. The Ball State loss really took away IU's flexibility. None of the five "easiest" games remaining on the schedule strike me as particularly easy, but IU really can't afford to lose any of them.

The Gophers are improved over last year, but they literally could not have been any worse. Minnesota's wins, against Northern Illinois, Bowling Green, Montana State, and Florida Atlantic, aren't overwhelming, but last year Minnesota lost to BGSU and FAU, in addition to I-AA North Dakota State. Minnesota lost a deceptively close Big Ten opener in Columbus, 34-21. The score was 34-6 early in the fourth quarter, and OSU significantly outgained Minnesota overall and per play. Still, sophomore QB Adam Weber is completing nearly 70 percent of his passes and has thrown 8 TDs to 2 interceptions. The Gopher offense has been pass-happy: no Minnesota running back averages more than 70 yards per game. WR Eric Decker already has 504 yards and 4 touchdowns.

The Gophers are middle of the pack statistically: they rank #58 in total offense and #75 in total defense. IU ranks #18 in total offense and #62 in total defense. Minnesota has played the #69 schedule and IU has played #132.

Finally, this is IU's last trip to the Metrodome, where the Gophers began playing in 1982. Minnesota opens its new on-campus open air stadium next season. IU's overall record is decent at the Dome: IU is 4-7 there all-time. Along with Northwestern (5-6), Purdue (5-8), and Wisconsin (4-7), the Dome has been among IU's friendliest road venues during its existence. Still, that friendliness was almost entirely in the first decade of the Dome's existence. IU last won there in 1993 (IU has won at every venue except Michigan, OSU, and Penn State since then), and the last three games (44-20 in 1993, 55-7 in 2003, 63-26 in 2006) have been particularly ugly. I don't have a very good read on either of these teams and have no idea what to expect on Saturday.

IU's response to failure to monitor charge.

IU now has responded to the NCAA Division I Committee on Infractions concerning "allegation 6" against IU arising out of the Sampson debacle. You may recall that this charge was added by the committee after the June 2008 hearing and was not the work of the NCAA's enforcement staff. Unsurprisingly, IU hammered that issue hard. Here's a link to Inside the Hall, which compiled the documents (one main document, two sets of exhibits) in one post.

The essence of IU's position can be found in the executive summary on page 11 of the first pdf document. The highlights:

• IU's "two-tiered, redundant" monitoring program actually discovered the violations;
• False information provided by IU coaches prevented the university from discovering the vast majority of the improper calls;
• IU performed a 100 percent audit of the coaches' identified phone records, as opposed to an average of 10 percent at other I-A schools, according to a survey;
• Only four calls, of 70,000 monitored, could have been discovered;
• IU did discover the calls in a timely manner and self-reported;
• IU's self-imposed sanctions are sufficient.

Other notes:

• At page 18, IU quibbles with the way the allegation is written, claiming the bylaw citation is incorrect and that the date range is overbroad.
• Also on page 18, IU notes that it requested a postponement of the hearing because of McRobbie's prior commitments and because of the associate AD's (presumably Grace Calhoun, perhaps Jennifer Brinegar) maternity leave. IU was told that the agenda for the August meeting was full, but at the hearing, the committee members contradicted that, claiming that IU could have selected the August meeting, and the committee also considered hearing the failure to monitor charge at the "full" August meeting. Right hand, meet the left hand.
• Continuing on to page 19, it appears that the Committee focused the initial hours of its inquiry on IU's monitoring systems, and issued the FTM charge just days after the hearing. While IU's response doesn't come right out and say it, the implication is, "hey, assholes, if you knew you were going to charge us with FTM, and you planned to grill us for hours about it, why didn't you amend before the hearing and resolve the whole thing in August?"
• IU also noted the vagueness of the FTM charge, which lacked the factual detail of the other charges.
• IU notes, and I think this is an important point, that the discovery of the violations was as a result of the second tier of monitoring. Unless any missed violation is a "failure to monitor," then isn't the fact that a double-check revealed the problem evidence of an effective, if imperfect, monitoring effort?
• On page 36, IU implores the committee members to check with their own institutions to see how their monitoring programs stack up. It's a good line, but I'm not sure I would taunt a rabid animal like the NCAA.
• At page 41 of the pdf, IU notes that the NCAA seems to be imposing a "strict liability" standard. Strict liability is a legal doctrine, most commonly applied against the manufacturers of defective products, that basically means that if a product causes harm, the manufacturer is liable even if the manufacturer acted reasonably. It's not quite as simple in application as "it happened, so you're on the hook," but that's the concept.
• Amazingly, IU doesn't seem to have any better insight than the rest of us about what exactly the NCAA means by "atmosphere of non-compliance" and the like. I presumed that there must have been some smoking gun at the hearing that would make this more obvious, but it doesn't seem so.
• Pages 54-55: "this is an unethical conduct case, not a failure to monitor case." IU notes the strong cases against Senderoff and Sampson.
• At page 58, IU notes that the committee's approach amounts to a prohibition of hiring of any coach who has committed NCAA violations, or at least holding a school strictly liable for any similar violations that occur.
• IU notes that asking coaches, as a matter of course, to turn over their home phone records has implications. Because IU is a public institution, the records then would become public records, discoverable upon a proper request by any citizen.
• As to the idea that IU didn't properly respond to the secondary violations involving Derek Elston, IU details its investigation process.

In sum, IU seems to be saying, between the lines, that if the NCAA wants to impose draconian rules on institutions that hire coaches with NCAA records, it should impose such rules, but that existing rules and precedent don't justify a finding of failure to monitor.

Michigan State 42, Indiana 29.

I was out of town on Saturday and forgot to Tivo the game, so my comments will be fairly short. It's for the better, I suppose. Watching the 97-yard TD pass that turned into a safety for holding in the end zone probably would have taken years off my life. Here's the box score. Spartans Weblog is a must-read during basketball season, but I didn't realize that he had branched out into football so extensively. Read the whole thing, as they say, but here's his recap of the game. My thoughts, which, again, are entirely box score-based:

• Surprisingly even offensive numbers. MSU modestly outgained IU, 497-473. IU had a slight edge in yards per play, 6.6 to 6.4. IU punted 7 times, MSU 6 times.
• The difference, apparently, was turnovers. IU had 3, MSU 0.
• Marcus Thigpen had another nice game, with 113 yards on 9 carries. As is often the case, Thigpen got the bulk of the yards on a big play, a 78 yard run. Still, even taking the big run out of the equation, he averaged 4.3 on the other carries. He was a beast catching the ball as well, with two catched for 94 yards, and adding a receiving TD to his two rushing TDs.
• Shades of Cam Cameron: Lynch played Lewis and Chappell at the same time, lining up Lewis as a WR. Both had respectable performances passing (actually, Chappell was only 11-23), and it will be interesting to see how this develops.
• Demarlo Belcher joined the attack, with 73 yards on four catches.
• No sacks! The 2007 team is looking like a one year wonder.
• Javon Ringer brutalized us, of course.

Overall, it sounds like it was a frustrating game to watch, but I can't be too discouraged considering MSU's strengths. Now, IU enters the most crucial stretch of its season. IU plays at Minnesota this week, then Iowa at home, then at Illinois, then at home against Northwestern. To make it to a bowl game (I'm assuming 7 wins will be required), IU almost certainly must go 3-1 in the next four weeks. And even going 3-1 would require IU to beat dangerous Central Michigan and either pull a major upset against PSU or Wisconsin or beat Purdue in Joe Tiller's last home game. The Ball State loss remains a killer, obviously. More on the apparently improved Gophers later.

Blogpoll draft ballot, week 5.

Rank	Team	Delta
1	Alabama	7
2	Texas	3
3	Oklahoma	3
4	LSU	1
5	Missouri	2
6	Brigham Young	5
7	Texas Tech	2
8	Penn State	6
9	South Florida	3
10	Southern Cal	9
11	Georgia	9
12	Florida	8
13	Oklahoma State	--
14	Kansas	3
15	Utah	5
16	Oregon	5
17	Ohio State	5
18	Auburn	2
19	Vanderbilt	4
20	Boise State	4
21	Wisconsin	11
22	Illinois	3
23	Connecticut	3
24	Ball State	2
25	Kentucky	1

Dropped Out: Wake Forest (#15), Clemson (#18), East Carolina (#25).

Commentary later.