Illinois 65, Indiana 52.

Here's the box score. Illinois played an excellent first half on both sides of the ball and built enough of a cushion to withstand an IU rally. The Illini shot 63 percent in the first half and held IU to 27 percent shooting in that half. In the first half, IU had an equal number of turnovers and field goals (6). In the second half, thanks to a triangle-and-two defense lauded by the CBS announcers, IU stymied the Illinois offense a bit and managed to pull within 6 with a Malik Story layup at 6:27. After a missed three pointer by Verdell Jones, Illinois's Chester Frazier, typically not a three point shooter, hit an open three pointer, and IU never really challenged after that.

IU's turnover numbers were modestly better. They turned the ball over 13 times in a 59 possession game. The slow pace exaggerates it a bit, but the 22 percent figure still makes it one of IU's better performances of the season in that regard. On the downside, the rebounding stats, one of the few bright spots of IU's trip to Illinois, were almost completely reversed in this game. The Hoosiers pulled down only 25 percent of their own misses (second worst performance of the season) and Illinois ended up with 40 percent of its misses, IU's fourth worst performance of the season. Most disappointing was the 11-24 performance from the free throw line. Illinois committed 20 fouls to IU's 14, but IU could have made the game much more competitive by making a respectable number of free throws.

Mike Davis and Mike Tisdale led the way for Illinois, each scoring 16 points on 12 shots. Trent Meacham and Dominique Keller led the way during the road loss in Champaign, but didn't play huge roles today. Illinois's balanced offense could help the Illini in March. There was plenty of strutting and posing in the first half, which led to some sort of discussion/staredown between Tom Crean and Davis. I haven't read anything about it in the media, and Crean deflected a question about taunting during his press conference. In the second half, Calvin Brock got a technical for what appeared to be an inadvertent collision with Kyle Taber while dancing after a made basket. It was a tough call, but I'll take it as payback for the officials' refusal to T up Chester Frazier in Champaign last year.

As for IU's individuals:

• Tom Prtichard again wasn't much of a factor. He scored 7 points on 6 attempts and had 4 rebounds in 36 minutes.
• Kyle Taber, although chewed out by Crean late in the first half, had a game more reminiscent of his performances last season, when he wasn't asked to shoulder as much of a burden. He scored 5 points on 2-3 from the field, had 7 rebounds, and didn't turn the ball over. Do no harm.
• Matt Roth was IU's leading scorer, scoring 13 points on 4-7 from the field, 3-6 from behind the arc.
• Verdell Jones had a couple of nice plays, but 5 of IU's 13 turnovers.
• Devan Dumes sat out his second consecutive game as part of his indefinite suspension for elbows against Northwestern and Michigan State. I won't quote it, because it appears only as part of Peegs's premium content (i.e., the IU Pravda site didn't reproduce the whole press conference transcript), but there's at least a suggestion that IU is getting pressure from Jim Delany not to bring Dumes back quite yet. Figures.
  

It's hard to believe, but the season is winding down. Only six regular season games remain. IU hosts Wisconsin on Wednesday night, travels to Purdue on Saturday, and hosts Northwestern a week from Wednesday. The Badgers have rebounded nicely from their six game losing streak, but aren't as strong as in recent years. Northwestern , now 4-8 in the conference, seems to have firmly pissed away its best chance ever for a NCAA bid with gut-wrenching home losses to Illinois and Michigan. These next two home games, plus the possibility of catching the 6 seed napping in the Big Ten Tournament, probably are IU's only real opportunities to win again this season. The Purdue game, while nearly a certain loss, will be an opportunity for the Hoosiers to try to stay close to a better team that will be looking to humiliate them.

The Illinois game, take 2.

Illinois fighting Illini
Current record: 20-5 (8-4)
Current RPI: 13
Current Sagarin: 13
Current Pomeroy: 22
2007-08 record: 16-19 (5-13)
2007-08 RPI: 99
2007-08 Sagarin: 73
2007-08 Pomeroy: 40
Series: IU leads 82-79
Last IU win: 2/7/2008 (83-79 in Champaign, double OT)
Last Illinois win: 1/10/2009 (76-45 in Champaign)
Last Illinois win in Bloomington: 2/3/2004 (51-49)
Pomeroy scouting report
TV: 1pm Saturday, CBS

After a horrific 2007-08 season, Illinois is in the best position of the three four loss Big Ten teams (Purdue and Ohio State are the others) to mae a run at 2-loss Michigan State. As sadly goes without saying this year, Illinois cannot afford to lose to IU. While the Hoosiers have been competitive in all but two of their conference games this season, the trip to Champaign was the least competitive of the bunch, and like the trip to Kentucky, the game at Illinois was effectively over by the first TV timeout. IU has been competitive at home, losing by no more than 12 points, but Illinois probably is the best team IU has faced at home.

Illinois has been excellent defensively. The Illini currently rank #7 in the nation in defensive efficiency and are the best in the Big Ten in that category in league games. The Illini force opponents to turn the ball over on 22 percent of possessions and rank #5 in the nation in three point defense. Illinois does not stand out as a rebounding team. The Illini rank #7 in offensive rebounding in league games and #8 on the defensive side. IU is ahead of the Illini on both sides of the ball. Offensively, Illinois has been respectable but not great from behind the arc, shooting 35 percent, but the Illini made 13 three pointers in the blowout in Champaign. Withstanding the Illinois defense and finding a way to stop Trent Meacham, who went 7-9 from behind the arc against IU, will be key. Meacham and Dominique Keller, who made 4-4 against IU, both shoot over 40 percent from behind the arc.

The trip to Illinois was IU's third worst turnover performance of the conference season, second worst in terms of offensive efficiency, and second worst in defensive efficiency. On the other hand, IU's offensive and defensive rebound percentages were IU's second best of the season. If IU can continue that trend but do a better job containing Illinois's three point shooters and find some looks for their own, is it crazy to think IU can compete? I do think IU can and will compete. That has not been the problem this season. I expect a game decided by a single digit margin, but Illinois is deservedly favored.

Illinois 76, Indiana 45.

Illinois is a good team that played well. IU is a bad team that played badly. I'm not sure it warrants any more analysis than that. Unfortunately, the turnover problems, which had subsided for a while, were back in full force yesterday. The IU official site couldn't bring itself to post the play-by-play, but it seems to me that much like the Kentucky game, a huge run of turnovers combined with hot, uncontested Illinois shooting ended this game before the first TV timeout.

The worst part of the game was the injury to Devan Dumes. This morning, WTHR-TV reported that Dumes was seen on crutches after the game after landing badly on his ankle during the Illinois game. It's hard to imagine IU winning a conference game in which Dumes doesn't play.

The Illinois game.

Illinois fighting Illini
Current record: 13-2 (1-1)

Current RPI: 21

Current Sagarin: 17

Current Pomeroy: 24

2007-08 record: 16-19 (5-13)

2007-08 RPI: 99

2007-08 Sagarin: 73

2007-08 Pomeroy: 40

Series: IU leads 82-78

Last IU win: 2/7/2008 (83-79 in Champaign, double OT)

Last Illinois win: 3/9/2007 (58-54 in Chicago, Big Ten Tournament quarterfinals, OT)

Last Illinois win in Champaign: 1/23/2007 (51-53)

Pomeroy scouting report
TV: 3pm Saturday, BTN

No longer "one player away," the Illini, like Michigan, like Iowa, and like just about everyone else, are on the list of vastly improved Big Ten teams. The Illini lost at Michigan, but also have the Big Ten's most impressive conference win to date, at preseason favorite Purdue. Last year, the contentiousness between Illinois coach Bruce Weber and Kelvin Sampson and Eric Gordon boiled over, and I expect that Weber and his team will be out for blood. I've said just about all I'm going to say about last year's despicable, coach-and-administration-approved atmosphere at the other Assembly Hall. I thought that Joe from Paint the Town Orange had a very reasonable perspective on the whole affair, although I'm sure we would disagree on some of the particulars. I was shocked when I heard earlier in the week that the Big Ten Network showed it as one of the Big Ten's greatest games. Give me a break. IU should be embarrassed that it ever hired Kelvin Sampson, and Illinois (and I hold the administration and Squeaky responsible much more than the fans) should be ashamed of that toxic atmosphere that they encouraged. I really don't want to think about that game, let alone see it again. Still, I couldn't help but think of it when Michigan's Laval Lucas-Perry bounced in that three pointer to force overtime. It was the third time in IU' last 13 Big Ten games that a fluky three pointer has played a huge outcome: the banked-in Gordon three that sent the Illinois game to overtime, the banked-in game-winner by Wisconsin's Brian Butch last season, and the Michigan game.

As for this year's Illinois team, they are excellent in basically every aspect of the game except rebounding and getting to the free throw line. They shoot well, take care of the ball, force lots of turnovers on defense, and play strong field goal defense. Unlike IU's recent opponents, Illinois is not a perimeter-oriented team. Only 25 percent of their field goal attempts are three pointers, #303 of 344 D-I teams. The Illini have a very balanced attack, with four players averaging between 11.7 and 12 points per game. Those four are Demetri McCamey, the unfortunately named Mike Davis, Mike Tisdale, and Trent Meacham. Chest-bumpin' Chester Frazier starts and leads the team with over 6 assists per game, but doesn't score much. Illinois had its worst defensive performance of the year against Michigan, and allowed 11-27 three point shooting. Devan Dumes and Matt Roth probably are IU's only hope.

This will be a very difficult task for IU, and I don't hold out much hope for a win. Still, IU has played better than expected in both Big Ten games this season, and we can hope that trend will continue.

Rock bottom, yet? Illinois 55, Indiana 13.

IU treated the Big Ten Network's prime time audience to horrid performance. IU was moderately competitive for much of the first half, moving the ball with some success, and missing two makeable field goals. Here are the stats.

The stats don't tell anything that watching the game did not. Illinois nearly doubled up IU in total offense (563-313); averaged 6.6 yards per carry to IU's 3.2; passed for 271 yards to IU 172; averaged 8.5 yards per play to IU's 4.3; and turned the ball over once to IU's twice. Last year, I made quite a bit of fun of Juice Williams, so it's only fair to note that he is much improved as a passer, and his 72.7 completion percentage last night was his career best. Other thoughts:

• The Seven Blocks of Limestone are more like Seven Bags of Mulch. Ben Chappell was sacked four times in his first college start, and the O-line's failures continue to hurt every aspect of the offense.
• While the line takes its share of the blame, Chappell, filling in for injured Kellen Lewis, completed only 10 of his 29 pass attempts against a previously mediocre Illinois defense.
• Austin Starr and Greg Middleton need not worry about repeating as All-Americans this season.
• What in the world possessed Bill Lynch to kick field goals down 34-7 and 48-10? I suppose I can understand the last one, trying to restore Starr's confidence. But a 20 point deficit in the middle of the third quarter is not insurmountable. Don't misunderstand, I'm not saying IU would have won if Lynch had gone for it there--we probably wouldn't have gotten the touchdown. But midway through the third quarter is too early to wave the white flag.

This season has turned into a disaster. Last year, Rick Greenspan faced a difficult choice: he could elevate the acting head coach, who had a poor Division I-A record but had performed admirably in tough circumstances and led IU to its first bowl game in 14 years. There's no guarantee that IU would have landed a top-notch coach if Greenspan had conducted an open search. The rationale behind hiring Lynch was continuity: he would avoid the inevitable staff turnover and player attrition and would keep the original Hoeppner staff roughly intact. In short, having finally achieved some momentum with the football program, IU hired Lynch precisely to avoid this sort of season. I'm not calling for Lynch's head, but there's no doubt that if Greenspan had any inkling that 2008 would look like this, Lynch would not have been considered. My various posts from last November make clear that I was ambivalent about the Lynch hiring. I look forward to Bob Kravitz's mea culpa, but I'm not holding my breath. IU has five games remaining, and four of them would be winnable if IU were a decent team. It's time to salvage something.

The Illinois game.

Illinois Fighting Illini
2008 record: 3-3 (1-2)
2008 Sagarin: 50 (IU is #90)
2007 record: (lost to USC in Rose Bowl)
2007 Sagarin: 30
Series: Illinois leads 42-20-2
Last IU win: 2006, 34-32 in Champaign
Last Illinois win: 2007, 27-14 in Bloomington

Because of personal circumstances, there could be some outages in the next week or two. I'll do my best to keep up, especially with basketball practice beginning Friday night, but no guarantees.

Football season continues, at least technically. The math for bowl eligibility is fairly daunting. For IU to have any prospect of postseason play, IU must go 4-2 in the second half of the season. Even if IU can beat Central Michigan, beat Northwestern, and find a way to beat Purdue in Joe Tiller's home finale, IU still would need to win either at Illinois, at Penn State, or at home against Wisconsin to get to 6-6. To get to unconditional bowl eligibility at 7-5, IU would need to win two of those games. In other words, we lost our margin of error a couple of losses ago, and will need to somehow completely remake the season to have any hope of anything. Really, 5-7 would at least give us some hope for 2009, but 2-10 isn't out of the question.

Illinois, without Rashard Mendenhall but with plenty of talent returning, doesn't seem to be on par with last year's Big Ten runner-up and Rose Bowl team, but IU historically has stuggled in Champaign. Before IU's 2006 win, the Hoosiers had not won there since 1979. And IU has always been glad to help the Illini when they were struggling. In 1996 and 2004, IU losses in Champaign prevented IU from going 0-8 in the Big Ten.

This is, according to the Big Ten office, a rivalry game. While not quite as contrived as the Land Grant Trophy, IU and Illinois don't have any long history with each other. Frankly, matching Illinois and Purdue and IU and Northwestern might have made more sense--Purdue and Illinois are as geographically close as any Big Ten campuses and IU and Northwestern are in a feverish battle for 10th place in the historical rankings.

Juice Williams has improved dramatically as a passer. Williams is completing 58 percent of his passes and has tied his career high with 13 touchdown passes. He is averaging 279 yards per game, compared to 134 last year. And he remains dangerous as a runner, with 4.4 yards per carry and 4 rushing touchdowns. Williams leads the Illini with 101 rushing attempts, but Daniel Dufresne has been solid, with 79.7 yards per game and 5.7 yards per carry. If IU's previous games are any indication, Dufresne will have a huge day against us. The Illini offense ranks second in the Big Ten in scoring offense, total offense, passing yards, and first downs per game (stats can be deceiving--IU still remains highly ranked in some of these categories). It hasn't been as pretty on the defensive side. Illinois ranks dead last in points allowed (IU is #10), 8th in total offense (IU is 7th). Illinois has accumulated its statistics against the #22 schedule, IU against the #65 schedule. The 17-point spread seems about right.

The Hoosier Scoop reports that Kellen Lewis is questionable for Saturday's game with an ankle sprain. A win on Saturday, despite the Illini's struggles, would be a huge upset, unfortunately.

The season that was, game 4: Illinois 27, Indiana 14.

After winning three non-conference games with relative ease, IU opened the Big Ten season with a home loss on a sweltering day to eventual Big Ten runner-up and Rose Bowl participant Illinois. Most expected the Illini, based on some improbably impressive recruiting by Ron Zook, to improve in 2007, but by any standard the Illini were ahead of schedule. Here's the box score, and here is my wrapup. Also if you scroll down the Illinois category past the basketball stuff, you will see my quarter-by-quarter liveblogs, including prescient gems such as:

Too bad this isn't Oklahoma circa 1980. Williams cannot pass. They may beat us today, but Illinois isn't going to beat anyone at the top of the conference with this QB.

Ahem. As I noted in the recap, Juice Williams was mostly horrible when he tried to throw the ball, although he did have a couple of nice throws on the key drive of the game: after IU pulled to within 13-7 with a couple of minutes remaining in the first have, Illinois drove down the field and was up 20-7 at halftime. In general, the thankfully departed Rashard Mendenhall brutalized the IU defense. Mendenhall gained 214 yards on 27 carries and scored a touchdown. IU's box scores list gross postive yards and net yards, but those numbers were the same in Mendenhall's line: in other words, he carried the ball 27 times and wasn't stopped behind the line of scrimmage even once.

Overall, it was a deflating game. At the time, no one knew how good Illinois would be. The previous season, IU had ended a 17-year, 10-game losing streak in Champaign, and before the season, most IU fans figured a win in this game would be crucial to IU's bowl hopes (not too many foresaw the win at Iowa to come) and might lead to a modest three game winning streak in what the Big Ten office regards as a rivalry worthy of protection. It wasn't to be, and now IU heads to Champaign in 2008 for a BTN prime time game.

Preseason trash talk.

The IU blogosphere has been all abuzz about Bruce Weber's recent comments about IU. At some sort of Illini circle-jerk a few days ago, Weber said:

The league should be wide open and we can be right in the middle of it. I do know one thing, though. I think Indiana will suck. Don’t put that on the Internet.

I have made clear on many occasions that I don't like Bruce Weber. He was right to be miffed about losing a recruit as talented as Eric Gordon, but as I have said many times before, Weber's inability to shrug it off has done real damage to the Illinois program. After IU's double overtime win at Champaign last year, in that toxic atmosphere created and abetted by Weber and the Illinois administration, I said this about Bruce:

For a college head coach, Weber just doesn't seem to relish competition.

That line, perhaps more than any other, led some Illinois fan to write a Unanbomber-style manifesto about how wrong I was about everything. Certainly, Weber can say whatever he wants to say. And of course, IU coaches have been known to take shots at opponents, albeit with a bit more creativity.

I thought Weber's approval of Chester Frazier's tech-worthy chest bump of Eric Gordon said something about Weber's character and supported my contention. I think his current willingness to talk trash about a team that doesn't return a single recruited scholarship player is exhibit B. Wow, Bruce. Takes a big man to say that you'll have IU's number this year. Weber took over a program that had NCAA championship-caliber talent on hand and drove the program into the crapper. Hopefully the trajectory of Crean, who was Illinois's first choice in 2003, will be the opposite.

Indiana 83, Illinois 79 (2OT).

As I said last night, I can't believe IU won. I wasn't confident going in, the atmosphere was even worse than expected, and IU ended up down 10 in the second half, thanks to the Illini's uncharacteristically good performance from behind the arc. Eric Gordon struggled, scoring only one point in the first half and finishing 3-13 from the field. Still, despite a nice performance from Illinois, IU pulled it out.

About that atmosphere. IU fans are not innocent in this regard. Transfer Luke Recker and hometown product/legacy Sean May were treated poorly by IU fans when they played in Assembly Hall in recent years, as was Lawrence Funderburke back when I was a student. When I was a student, I thought it was just great. By the time the Recker/May games rolled around, I thought it was a bit much. The booing, the chants, and all that aren't classy, but they happen everywhere. And I certainly won't object to the well-deserved ribbing that Kelvin Sampson takes for his NCAA violations. My problem with Illinois is that the atmosphere wasn't a grass roots exercise spurred by immature and intoxicated students: at Illinois, it starts at the top. Illinois athletic director Ron Guenther repeatedly has referred to Gordon's change of heart as a "defection" (who the hell does Guenther think he is, Fidel Castro?). Weber complains about it constantly, particularly in the press conferences surrounding the first IU game, when he discussed being one player away and all that. Of course Weber is right, to a degree. As I have noted in most of my previous posts, Illinois does lots of things very well, but offsets those successes by shooting very poorly most of the time. This would be a much better Illinois team if Eric Gordon were on the team. But he's not, and he never will be.

Weber should look in the mirror and ask himself how in the world a program that played in the NCAA title game in 2005 can be so dependent on a single one-and-done recruit that the program ends up in the cellar without him. He also should ask himself whether his constant whining enhances the public image of his program. He and Illini fans have allowed Eric Gordon's switch to become the defining moment of his program. At some point, he should move forward, accept it, and try to beat Kelvin Sampson for the next recruit. For a college head coach, Weber just doesn't seem to relish competition. In his press conference last night, all he did was whine about the bad bounces that the Illini have had this year. They have had some bad bounces, but they also shoot 30 percent from three point range and 60 percent from the line. Any team with numbers like that is going to lose a bunch of games. As I said, the chants were going to happen no matter what. But Weber's constant complaining about this certainly fuels the anger of the Illinois fans. I won't blame him for the chants, but I will blame him for promoting an atmosphere that led to debris raining down on the Gordons and an Illinois player taking a cheap shot at Gordon during introductions. The game should have begun with two shots and the ball for IU. What kind of wuss must one be to take a cheap shot at someone during introductions? The kind of player who plays for a self-pitying, mouth-breathing crybaby like Bruce Weber, apparently. He complains publicly. He won't shake the hands of IU players or assistants. All this over a 17 year-old who changed his mind about where to go to college.

Box score. Yes, there was a basketball game, and a damn good one. It is to the Illini's credit that watching them play IU is a stressful experience--I can't imagine what it's like to play them. They defend well, crash the offensive boards, yet still manage to get back on defense to prevent transition opportunities. Pomeroy's tempo-free numbers for this game aren't up yet, but this appears to have been about a 77 possession game, which computes to about 61.5 possessions for a 40 minute game. So the pace certainly was consistent with Illinois's game. It certainly felt as if the Illini shot better than 36 percent from behind the arc, probably because of the sheer number of threes made (11). The Hoosiers also made 11 on 23 attempts. Illinois took more shots, mostly because they took good care of the ball (11 turnovers, which is very good for a 77 possession game) and didn't shoot many free throws. Ultimately, the Hoosiers won the game at the line, with 22-29 compared to Illinois's 8-17. Neither team rebounded all that well offensively, given the number of missed shots. Really, this was a pretty evenly matched game that came down to free throws at key moments at the end of regulation and overtimes, and IU made shots while Sean Pruitt did not.

Individuals:

• Further evidence that Eric Gordon isn't capable of a truly bad game. Sure, 3-13 and seven turnovers are bad numbers, and the 10 second violation was inexcusable, but Gordon still scored 19 points thanks to the free throws.
• Jamarcus Ellis also shot poorly (9 points on 10 shots), including two free throws that could have ended the game in the first overtime. Still, 11 rebounds on 3 steals.
• DJ White's line wasn't as impressive as in other games (17 points on 11 shots, 9 rebounds), but he also added 3 steals and 2 blocks.
• Jordan Crawford is always dangerous to one team, and fortunately he was dangerous to the opponent this time. 18 points on 13 shots, 4-6 from three point range, only 2 turnovers in 32 minutes.
• Armon Bassett scored 16 points on eight shots. Despite 3-8 from the field, he was 8-8 from the line, mostly in the second overtime.
• Kyle Taber, by playing invisible, mistake free ball, continues to take minutes from Mike White and Deandre Thomas. In 21 minutes, Taber made his only shot (a putback), pulled down three rebounds, and didn't turn the ball over (although he did bobble a ball that he could have saved from going out of bounds). Hopefully his do-no-harm approach will provide an example to his teammates at the power forward position.

Well, I'm glad it's over, although IU certainly could face the Illini in the BTT if the Illini win on the first day. IU now plays at Ohio State on Sunday (thankfully, it's not Saturday, so the Hoosiers will have some time to recover. After that, IU plays home games against Wisconsin, Michigan State, and Purdue. While IU has a good chance to win each individual game, even a 3-1 record over that stretch will put IU in excellent position to contend for the Big Ten title and a high seed. IU is now 4-1 on the road in the Big Ten with Penn State and Northwestern still remaining (in addition to OSU, a toss-up, and MSU, a likely loss). If the Hoosiers can continue to defend their homecourt, and especially if they pick up a win in Columbus, they will be in the hunt for the conference title until the very end.

We won that game.

I still can't believe it. For the record, Bruce Weber, Chester Frazier, and every member of the Orange Krush can blow me.

More Illinois stuff.

No, not Eric Gordon stuff, but the actual game. Taking a quick look at the team's Pomeroy profiles, here's what we find:

IU's strengths:

• productive shooting (53.9 effective FG% (#37 nationally)
• offensive rebounding (37%, #49)
• defensive rebounding (#18)
• blocking shots (#33 by percentage)
• getting to the line (#19 in free throw rate
• two point field goal defense (43.2%, #26)
• shooting defense (45.2 EFG, #45)

IU's weaknesses:

• offensive turnover percentage (20.6, #121)
• defensive turnover percentage (20.8, #195)

Illinois's strengths:

• field goal defense (30.8 three point percentage (#28) and 44.5 from two (#47)
• offensive rebounding (38 percent, #23)
• defensive rebounding (#81)

Illinois's weaknesses:

• productive shooting (48.3 effective FG%, #228 nationally)
• Getting to the line (#270 in free throw rate)
• shooting free throws (60%, #330)
• three point shooting (30 percent, #321)
• forcing turnovers (#221 in TO%, #307 in steal %)

Really, IU doesn't have many glaring weaknesses compared to Illinois. Other than defensive turnover rate, IU is in the top have of Division I in every quality-based measure. Unfortunately, IU's biggest problem in recent losses, making baskets, plays in to Illinois's only real strength, field goal defense. Illinois does not shoot well from anywhere, but particularly not from the line or from three point range. Fouls, as long as IU isn't in foul trouble, won't necessarily hurt. This might be a good game to give Taber, Deandre, Mike White, and Brandon McGee ample minutes and ample fouls. I can't say I'm looking forward to this game, but it will be interesting to see if a Sampson-led team can finally have an explosive offensive performance against Illinois.

Illinois, take two.

Illinois Fighting Illini

Current record: 10-13

Big Ten record: 2-8

Current RPI: 123

Current Sagarin: 87

2006-07 record:

2006-07 RPI: 30

2006-07 Sagarin: 51

Series: IU leads 82-77

Last IU win: 1/13/08, 62-58 in Bloomington

Last Illinois win: 3/9/07, 58-54 (OT) in Chicago (BTT quarterfinals)

Last IU win in Champaign: 2/24/99 (70-64 in OT)

TV: 9 pm Thursday, ESPN

Pomeroy profile

The Illini, just three years removed from a one-loss regular season and NCAA title game appearance, would require a dramatic turnaround even to find themselves in NIT contention. Still, the Illini were very effective against IU in the Hoosiers' close win in Bloomington a month ago and have invariably played the Hoosiers tough during the Weber era. Weber is 6-3 against IU, and the three Illinois losses have been by four points or fewer. IU's effective field goal percentage (the Pomeroy metric that includes free throws in the calculation) of 44.9% is IU's second lowest total of the season (the loss to Wisconsin was worse). Last year, Illinois (in the two losses, in Champaign and Chicago) was responsible for two of IU's six worst EFG performances. IU managed a 50 percent EFG in the 2006-07 win in Bloomington, but IU's EFG was worse than 50 percent in only 13 of IU's 32 games that season. In short, win or lose, no Sampson-led IU team has had a good offensive game against Illinois. IU currently ranks #37 nationally with an EFG of 53.5, while 44.9 is a sub-300 average. So, IU, normally one of the most efficient shooting teams in the country, was made to look like one of the worst on its home court by an Illinois team that is now 2-8 in the Big Ten. Is it clear that I'm worried about this game?

My concerns go beyond the objective, obviously. To hear Bruce Weber and his compliant downstate media types talk, Eric Gordon's decision to back out of his verbal commitment to Illinois and attend Indiana is the only reason that Illinois isn't in the top 10 this year. While I think it would be in the best interest of the Illinois program and Bruce Weber for all involved to move on, they may have a point, given how well Illinois does everything except shoot and force turnovers. Still, they haven't moved on. Not by a longshot. The Orange Krush will be in rare form tomorrow night and the Illini team will be pumped up. After a rough first half against Wisconsin, Gordon has shot well despite the splint on his non-shooting hand. He can do it physically, but playing at the other Assembly Hall, the place where he once thought he would be playing college basketball, will present a psychological challenge. Writers and fans often overestimate the effect of intangibles on any given game, but such things will matter in this game. The Illini are 10-13 with nine games remaining, including the first game of the Big Ten Tournament. To so much as qualify for a NIT bid, the Illini must win at least seven of those games. Illinois has played the toughest part of its schedule, but with four road games left plus home games against Michigan State and Wisconsin, such an outcome is not likely. In other words, tomorrow night is the Illini's bowl game, so to speak. The Hoosiers need to approach this one like it's the NCAA Tournament, or they will lose.

Tomorrow I will take a closer look at the tempo free stats and other matters.

Indiana 62, Illinois 58.

Sorry I'm late.

Billy Packer made an odd but accurate comment during Sunday's game, something like: "Illinois is a great team except that they can't shoot from the perimeter or the foul line." Shooting is an important part of the game, of course, but as I noted in my preview post, Packer is right, essentially. The Illini defend well, rebound well, and take care of the ball. If they could make baskets, they would have won a bunch more games, including Sunday's game. This deficiency also highlights why Illinois wanted Eric Gordon so badly. Win or lose, watching IU play Illinois during the Weber era has been very frustrating. The Illini do a great job of clogging up IU's offense.

Here's the box. The pace? We played the Illini's game, at roughly 62 possessions per team. That means the Hoosiers were at right around one point per possession, which is pretty low for a team averaging much more on the season. It's really uncanny just how similar the two teams' lines were in this game. IU and Illinois posted nearly identical totals in field goals made, field goals attempted, three point shooting, both rebounding categories, and turnovers. IU shot 25 free throws and made 18. Illinois shot 21 free throws and made 13. Really, that was the difference. Illinois took an early lead on the basis of uncharacteristically good shooting to start the game (6-6, and the Illini led 13-4 four minutes into the game). After that start, the Illini shot only 4-19 in the remainder of the first half and 13-43 (31 percent) for the rest of the game. I would love to say that IU's defense was suffocating. The defense was good, but this is a circumstance where stats don't tell the whole story. These guys just cannot shoot.

Individual performances:

• Ho hum. DJ White picked up another BTPOW award. After a 22-rebound performance at Michigan, White was his efficient self: 15 points on 9 shots, 5-6 from the line, 10 rebounds (close to a third of Illinois's 32 misses).
• Eric Gordon posted his usual "bad game" totals. Gordon was only 4-10 from the field but was 8-10 from the line and finished with 17 points. Again, too many turnovers (4), but this guy's ability to be productive even on bad shooting nights is what makes him one of the best players in the country.
• Mike White, in 19 minutes, posted a solid line: 4 points on three shots, 6 rebounds (the bad: 0-3 from the line).
• Armon Bassett was excellent in his return to meaningful action: 3-5 from the field including 3-4 from three point range, 11 points.
• Jamarcus Ellis struggled to 1-6 from the field and 3 turnovers.
• Jordan Crawford shot abysmally, four points on 2-8 from the field.
• AJ Ratliff, who has played well in some respects, can't quite find his shot. I'm sure he will.

Like all of IU's three Big Ten wins, IU won despite not playing particularly well. That will have to change Thursday at Minnesota.

The Illinois game.

Illinois Fighting Illini

Current record: 8-8

Big Ten record: 0-3

Current RPI: 114

Current Sagarin: 93

2006-07 record:

2006-07 RPI: 30

2006-07 Sagarin: 51

Series: IU leads 81-77

Last IU win: 2/12/07, 65-61 in Bloomington

Last Illinois win: 3/9/07, 58-54 (OT) in Chicago (BTT quarterfinals)

Last Illinois win in Bloomington: 2/3/04 (51-49)

TV: 4:30 pm, CBS

Pomeroy profile

Eric Gordon's decision to decommit from Illinois and simultaneously commit to IU, back in October 2006, had wide-ranging repercussions. Kelvin Sampson, tarnished by Phonegate I, had instant credibility with IU fans. Many opposing fans and coaches, including Bruce Weber, criticized Sampson for breaking the "unwritten rules" that require a coach to be more loyal to the coaching fraternity than to the university that is paying him over a million dollars a year. Illinois fans reacted with particular venom, egged on by the compliant downstate Illinois media, including Illinois's head cheerleader Mark Tupper and most infamously, Bill Liesse of the Peoria Journal Star. The paper no longer hosts the article on its website, but here's what Liesse, a middle aged sports editor, had to say about a 17 year old kid who changed his mind about where to attend college:

Now that Eric Gordon has decided he wants to wear candystripe pants and play for a coach (Kelvin Sampson) who has as much to do with the NHL as he does the NBA, we thought we'd dedicate this week's (NFL) Lines to that steaming pile of two-guard.

There's no doubt that when IU plays at Illinois, the media and the Orange Krush and Bruce Weber will have the arena whipped in to a frenzy. I'm glad Gordon gets to break the ice against Weber and the Illini in more friendly surroundings.

History

Currently, IU leads all Big Ten schools in the all-time series except Purdue. Other than Purdue, Illinois is the closest. Since Lou Henson retired, IU is only 7-16 against the Illini. IU was 2-6 against Lon Kruger, 3-4 against Bill Self, and 2-6 against Bruce Weber. IU hasn't won at Champaign since 1999. Especially, IU has struggled to a 1-6 record against Illinois in the Big Ten Tournament. There have only been ten Big Ten Tournaments, so that means Illinois has eliminated IU more often than every other team combined. IU needs a winning streak against the Illini.

It also helps that the Illini aren't much of a team this year. Illinois started fairly well. Although they were only 6-3 after their first nine games, Illinois beat Arizona State and Oklahoma State and lost to three respectable teams in road/neutral games: Duke, Arizona, and Maryland (they also had a later win against Missouri). In the last three weeks, the wheels have fallen off: the Illini lost home non-conference games to Miami of Ohio and Tennessee State and have opened 0-3 in the Big Ten, including home losses to Ohio State and Penn State.

Team stats

As I mentioned earlier in the week, the Illini have one of the toughest conference schedules and don't even get a quasi-home game in Evanston this year. The Illini certainly have had some respectable wins, but do not seem to be improving. The Illini's 64.3 possession pace is #289 nationally, and their 1.07 points per shot is slightly below average (although when adjusted for their tough schedule, the Illini rank #70). The Illini don't shoot terribly well, and their 29 percent three point percentage is one of the worst in the nation. The Illini do take care of the ball (ranking very high in steal percentage and turnover percentage offensively) and are a strong offensive rebounding team. So, while the Illini maximize their possessions, they don't shoot well and don't get to the line. Our Big Ten rivals like to complain that no one gets to the line in Assembly Hall, so it would be surprising if the Illini do so tomorrow.

On the defensive side, the Illini are #72 in raw efficiency and #35 in adjusted efficiency. The Illini are an interesting case. Their opponents get to the line quite a bit (the Illini are #325 in defensive free throws allowed percentage) but are great in traditional shooting percentage measures. Illinois allows only 30 percent (#32 nationally) in three point shooting and 43 percent (#55 nationally) two point shooting,

I'll try to check back later with some discussion of the individuals.

Illinois 27, Indiana 14.

Here's the box score. My thoughts as the game transpired are set forth all too plainly below. Looking at the final box doesn't really change much. Astoundingly, IU ended up outgaining Illinois, 397-386, largely on the strength of a last-gasp, 75 yard drive by IU that ended with an endzone interception. Illinois ran the ball at will. Mendenhall is a handful, and IU did not defend the option well, particularly in the first half. I gave Isiah Williams some heat this week, and for the most part, he proved himself to be a terrible passer, but he managed a couple of nice downfield throws (his only nice downfield throws, as I recall) on Illinois's drive at the end of the first half. Illinois led 13-0, and IU scored its first touchdown with about 2 minutes left in the second quarter. IU was due to receive the second-half kickoff, so a defensive stop would have been a big deal. Instead, Williams looked like a quarterback on that drive, Illinois led 20-7, and really, the game was over at that point. IU never got closer than 13. I think the Illini will struggle to beat a team that is strong enough in the front 7 to stop the running attack with average manpower, because Isiah Williams cannot throw the ball. But the talent infusion is now obvious. The best team won.

As I said below, following IU football is similar to being Charlie Brown, really wanting to believe that Lucy is going to let us kick to ball this time. A win yesterday would have been a big moment for the program. Not only did the Hoosiers lose, but it really wasn't a close game. It won't help attendance or publicity or buzz. The Hoosiers still have a good chance to win six (home games against Minnesota and Ball State, on the road against Northwestern), but IU will need a significant upset to get to 7 wins, which may be necessary for a bowl bid.

Fourth quarter thoughts

• 14:30 Not our day. Stupid plays by important players. This one's over.
• 12:45 Oh well. Beat Iowa.
• 5:30 Well, glad my wife failed to drag me away. Let's go.
• 4:46 Not our day.

Third quarter thoughts.

• Phenomenally stupid play by Lewis. You have to get it past the line of scrimmage. Everyone knows that.
• 12:09 Well, this is time for the defense.
• And, a blocked punt. Sorry defense. This one could get out of hand.
• Glen Mason thinks Illinois should rely on Williams's arm, yet IU should rely on Kellen's feet. That's why you're in the booth, Glen.
• 11:00 That's the Isiah Williams we all know and love. Thank you.
• 9:38 Wasted.
• 8:25 need a three and out
• 8:06 didn't get it.
• 6:50 The defense is doing its part this quarter.
• 6:39 F me. How often does a punt do that? Once a year?
• 5:10 We just can't string together a handful of decent plays. Great run by Payton, two plays of crap.
• Sounds like sour grapes, but that should have been a 15 yarder on the third down cheap shot. The ball flew in front of the defensive back's eyes.
• 1:51 We're getting thrashed. We may find a way to win this, but we are going to need the Illini's help.
• Atrocious, game ending call. He dropped it.
• And Zook is fucking stupid enough to try to help us out. Why in the world are they throwing the ball? I'll take it.
• :00 Sears is still on the team. Where has he been?

Stats through 3:

• Yards: Illinois leads 314-266
• Rushing: Illinois and 216 and 6.o per; IU has 111 and 4.1 per
• Williams is 13-28 for 97 (2 INT); Lewis is 16-29, 155
• Turnovers are now even.
• We've punted 5 times, Illinois 4.

Second quarter thoughts.

• Touchback on the punt. Let's start over.
• 14:08 First down on a busted play. The defense needs to get off the field. It's hot today.
• 12:12 Atrocious production by the BTN.
• 11:15 Illinois is doing whatever they want.
• 10:25 Even Williams couldn't screw up that throw. Three different guys could have caught it. 13-0, and we're getting manhandled.
• If I were Zook, I may well have gone for 2 this year. We can't stop these guys.
• 9:22 Whew. 1st down run by KL. That could be a day-saver.
• 8:37 So much for that. Again, Wayne's World caliber production from the BTN.
• 7:30 Jesus. Blitz again. This guy cannot throw downfield!!!!
• 5:10 Well, we're hanging on by a thread. We need a long scoring drive, and get the ball back in the second half. Come on!
• 5:02 Nice gain, but we can't hold onto the ball.
• 3:16 We needed that one, James.
• 3:06Bloggers unite! Great run by Bryan Payton.
• TD Hardy. Now the defense has to hold Illinois for 2:04. Man, Lewis threw some nice balls on that drive.
• 1:35 a couple of good throws by Williams
• Wiliams looked good on that drive.
• What was that third down call? Even ultraconservative Glen Mason won't defend it.

Halftime stats:

• 20 first downs for Illinois, 13 for IU
• yards: Illinois leads, 265-211
• Illinois rushing 178 yards, 6.8 per; IU 68, 3.8 per. IU did move the ball pretty well in the second quarter. The fumble was a killer.
• Williams is now 12-20 for 97 yards. That means he was 10-14 in the quarter. Mostly dink and dunk, but a couple of nice downfield tosses in the late drive.
• IU has three fumbles, two lost. Illinois has one turnover, the early INT.

First quarter thoughts.

• 14:22 Thanks for the dying quail, Isiah.
• 13:22 Damn. We need to exploit turnovers, not give it right back.
• 12:20 Horrendous pass interference call.
• 10:20 Field goal Illinois. Well, better than a TD, but we really needed to exploit that turnover. Let's just hope that Isiah keeps throwing it downfield and the refs stop bailing him out.
• 10:20As promised, Zooker is kicking it away from Thigpen. The way he has played so far (drop and fumble) BFD.
• 9:26 Now that's a real pass interference call.
• 7:55Damn. Lewis sacked. Let's hope the defense can keep this a one possession game.
• 7:42 Terrible, terrible punt. All you need is a decent 35 yarder and you pin them back. Jeesh.
• 6:55 I know I picked on him too much this week, and I know he seems like a good kid, but Isiah Williams is an awful passer.
• 6:30 No excuse. Dive play for first down on 3rd and 10.
• Let's hope we don't have a controversial play in this game. The BTN's camera work isn't going to help.
• 5:05 Williams does run the option well. His fakes are convincing.
• 4:33 Too bad this isn't Oklahoma circa 1980. Williams cannot pass. They may beat us today, but Illinois isn't going to beat anyone at the top of the conference with this QB.
• 4:29 Well, we've been pretty bad so far, and it's only 6-0. Let's get going.
• 1:45. Hey, a good bounce! Let's not waste it.
• 1:11 was means looking to throw that ball?
• :41 That may be the first time Hardy has been on the TV screen today, let alone near the ball.
• :32 We called a timeout for that?

End of quarter stats:

First downs: IU 5 Illini 7

Yards: IU 73, Illinois 86

Rushing: Illinois: 78 yards, 6.5 per; IU 22 yards, 2.2 per

Passing: Williams is 2-8, and hasn't thrown a good ball downfield. Lewis is 4-7 for 51, but nothing to show for it.

Mendenhall is 3-40.

Lewis has been sacked twice already.

Gameday!

IU's eleventh hour recruitment of Kellen Lewis is well-documented, but I had not thought about the Zook angle: Zook was the coach at Florida then, and recruited Lewis as an "athlete."

Not much else to say. This one could go either way, and whoever wins will be in a good position regarding the postseason.