Billy Packer, RIP (RPI?).

Okay, he's not dead, and good for him. But good for us, at least those of us who don't follow the ACC: after allowing him for years to cultivate his reputation as the most loathed college basketball announcer, CBS finally has pulled the plug on Billy Packer (above on left, I think). I'm not sure if I'm thrilled that Clark Kellogg is getting the nod, but literally anyone would have been better than Billy.

That's a good start. Even better would be if Jim Nantz would take his schmaltzy act to NBC, where he could more appropriately put his skills to use by broadcasting Olympic gymnastics and figure skating. I can always hope that Nantz will be gone by the next time IU plays in the NCAA Tournament, but that doesn't do much good in the short term.

Gameday!

I set forward the tempo-free numbers earlier this week here. The short story: comparable on defense, IU has the edge in offense, Arkansas has played much better lately. The biggest concern is the size of Arkansas's interior players and the Hogs' shot-blocking ability. IU has struggled against teams like that, most conspicuously against Connecticut. Here are the individuals to watch:

• Senior Darian Townes averages 12 points and 1 blocks a game and shoots 54 percent from the field;
• Seven-footer Steven Hill plays only 19 minutes a game but averages 2.4 blocks per game. He doesn't shoot much (4.4 ppg) but he shoots 68 percent from the field;
• Senior Sonny Weems (6-6) is the Hogs' leading scorer at 14.3 ppg and shoots 36 percent from three point range;
• Sophomore Patrick Beverly averages 12 points a game and shoots 38 percent on about 5 three point attempts per game;
• Gary Ervin appears to be the point guard and averages 9.6 ppg/3.7apg. He shoots quite a bit, but not with much success: 44 percent from the field and 29 percent from behind the arc (although Eric Gordon's numbers are rapidly descending to that level);
• Charles Thomas averages 8.9 ppg despite only 21 minutes per game.

Overall, Arkansas has a balanced attack, with five guys averaging between about 9 and 14 points a game. Well, as usual, no grand predictions from me. On paper, IU had a much better season than Arkansas and should be able to win if the Hoosier can recapture their ways of the first three quarters of the season. Unfortunately, IU has shown no signs of returning to form, so if forced to pick a straight-up winner I would pick Arkansas. Still, hopefully some combination of Dakich, DJ, and self-respect will compel the team to play well and advance to the second round.

Blog exchange with Hawg Blog.

I have exchanged some questions and answers with Hawg Blog, which as the name would suggest is an Arkansas blog, as a prelude to tomorrow night's matchup. Below is the first half of the exchange, and Hawg Blog has published the second half.

HR: Hawgblog, introduce us to your team. What players should IU fans fear, what are your strengths and weak spots, and how did your season turn out compared to preseason expectations in year one of the Pelphrey era?

HB: If I were the Hoosiers I'd be afraid of Arkansas Guard Patrick Beverly getting a hot hand on the perimeter. That will pull the defense away from the basket and allow Charles Thomas and Darrien Townes to dominate inside. The problem is Beverly, and the rest of the team for that matter, is streaky at best. Arkansas tends to get mentally lazy sometimes and you wouldn't expect it out of a team with this many seniors. But when there on their game they can beat anyone in the country (see victories over Tennessee and Vanderbilt), when they're not it gets ugly fast (see loss to Appalachian St). As far as Pelphrey goes I give the man a solid B+. He coached as well as can be expected with players who were recruited to play a more Big Ten style of basketball. I thought we'd finish with between 18 and 21 wins and sneak into the tourney before the season started. So, I guess I got about what I expected. Looking forward, when Pelphrey gets a couple of recruiting classes under his belt, I see a bright future ahead.

For those of us who haven't been following IU basketball, what exactly happened with Kelvin Sampson? The Hoosiers were ranked in the top ten, looking at a possible Final Four run, and it looks like it's fallen apart. Are you surprised how the team has reacted to his resignation?

HR: Well, the short story is that when IU hired Sampson in 2006, he was under investigation for improper phone calls at Oklahoma. In October 2007, IU self-reported to the NCAA that Sampson's staff had committed violations and included him in three way calls, in violation of NCAA rules and of Sampson's probation, but supposedly without Sampson's knowledge. In February, the NCAA enforcement staff issued its report, which concluded that Sampson knew he was involved in three way calls and had lied to IU and to the NCAA about it. After a short investigation by IU, Sampson "resigned" and took a pennies-on-the-dollar buyout. It's all pretty ugly. Just two years after our first true coaching search in 35 years, our once-pristine basketball program is without a coach and headed for probation.

I'm not sure if I'm surprised about the team's play. I really didn't know what to expect, because when has a team as highly ranked as IU was ever lost its coach a month before the NCAA Tournament? There's just no precedent. It does seem that there is some dissension on the team and not much rapport between interim coach Dan Dakich and many of the players. While I'm disappointed that the team hasn't been mentally stronger, I wish those who are sulking, if anyone, realize they are only hurting themselves. While IU hasn't played well since the resignation of Sampson, IU's biggest problem has been Eric Gordon's shooting slump. From the Purdue game (Sampson's last game) to present, Gordon is 33-96 from the field (34%) and 8-47 (17%) from three point range. He may have aggravated a wrist injury from earlier in the season, but for all the strife and sulking and subpar play, if Gordon were shooting just a bit closer to his ability we would have won a couple more games in the last three weeks.

If there's any basketball program that rivals IU for soap opera stuff, it's Arkansas. Like IU and Bob Knight, Arkansas and the great Nolan Richardson are on the outs. And then there was the whole Dana Altman episode. How do Arkansas fans regard Richardson and his legacy today? Are the fans divided about him or is there consensus? Any hope for reconciliation?

HB: Last March I figured if Stan Heath didn't pull thru and win at least a game in the NCAA's he'd be done and ol' Frank Broyles still had one good firing in him. Sure enough Stan was gone after the loss to USC and the search was on. The thing was this...Frank was sure he could get Billy Gillispie to come to Fayetteville from Texas A&M. What Frank didn't count on was the Kentucky job opening up and Gillispie passing him over. Which left Arkansas scrambling to fill it's vacancy. Enter Altman from Creighton...and Exit Altman. This left so much egg on Broyles' face that he gave up the search to a search firm where we were extremely lucky to land Pelphrey.That's the funny think about Broyles, it was always hard for him to let things go. Which leads me to Richardson. Most of the wounds are healing around the state in regards to Nolan. It took longer than it should have since Richardson sued the University for discrimination and wrongful termination. But now most regard him as a great basketball coach who let his personal political feelings get in the way. Although, most who wanted him gone now recognize how good he was. Richardson and 9 members of the '94 championship squad were recognized at a Northwest Arkansas Tip-Off Club meeting last month. New Arkansas AD Jeff Long was in attendance and met Richardson for the first time. Media reports from the meeting stated that there is a possibility of a ceremony recognizing the 15th anniversary of the '94 title team being set for next season and that Long and Richardson planned to talk more at a later date. This was all before Richardson flirted with the Arkansas State head coaching job last week. So, we'll see what happens.

With IU announcing that they've formed a search committee to fill your head coaching vacancy, who do you think would be a good fit as a head coach at IU? Can IU still draw a big name with the sanctions hanging above the program?

HR: That's nice to hear about Richardson. I hope that IU and Knight can make some progress some day, but I'm not holding my breath.

There seem to be two schools of thought on the issue. Some think that IU will attempt to hit a home run and will attempt to land someone like Bruce Pearl of Tennessee or Rick Barnes of Texas, guys who are doing well where they are but who will never be "the king" in the way that a basketball coach is at IU (Sampson to IU and Gillispie to Kentucky fit this general pattern). The other school of thought is that IU, particularly given the sanctions issue, might be a better fit for a young up-and-comer. The most common names mentioned from that category are Tony Bennett of Washington State (Wisconsin native with strong midwestern ties), Sean Miller of Xavier (recruits Indiana well, humiliated IU in a preseason tournament), and Brad Brownell of Wright State (Indiana native who has taken two mid-major programs to the NCAA Tournament).

One thing that IU fans have learned in recent years is to distrust information from those who claim to be in the know. When current AD Rick Greenspan hired the late Terry Hoeppner to coach the football team, news didn't leak until Hep told his players at Miami. During the last basketball search, Sampson's name didn't leak until Andy Katz broke the story hours before the introductory press conference. Whether the involvement of a more high-profile search committee will result in more leaks, I don't know. But just to be clear, all of the above is speculation. If history is any guide, IU will hire someone not on the list.

As for the sanctions, I really don't know. I'm not sure that successful coaches are terribly intimidated by such things. While I think it's unlikely that IU will face a postseason ban, unfortunately, IU is in uncharted water. IU has never had a major violation in basketball and hasn't had one in any sport since the late 1950s. While that would normally work in IU's favor, on the other hand, IU hired a coach who was in NCAA trouble and he and his staff committed the similar offenses at IU. So, will the NCAA treat IU as a repeat offender even though we technically are not? Will we get brownie points for self-reporting and an aggressive investigation? Those are the big questions, and any new coach is going to have to accept some short-term uncertainty. I tend to think that the prestige of the IU job along with some ongoing facilities improvements will allow IU to hire a very good coach, but it may dissuade some of the household names from considering the job.

Again, be sure to check in with Hawg Blog for the second half of our discussion.

Arkansas through the years.

While many would consider Arkansas a football school, the school does have a fine basketball tradition. The Razorbacks are 37-29 all-time in the NCAA Tournament, ranking #17 in all-time Tournament wins. Arkansas has been to the Final Four six times (1941, 1945, 1978, 1990, 1994, 1995) and won the NCAA title in 1994. Arkansas was the dominant basketball program of the old Southwest Conference, winning the conference title 22 times before moving to the SEC in 1991-92.

One thing Arkansas has in common with IU? Acrimonious relationships with former coaches and general coaching upheaval. The fallout after the Knight firing in 2000 is well-known around here. In 2002, Nolan Richardson, who led the Hogs to three Final Four appearances and the 1994 title, was ousted amid his accusations of racially discriminatory treatment by the university. Richardson sued the university unsuccessfully. Knight and Richardson are somewhat unusual as NCAA champion coaches who are on the outs with the schools where they had their greatest success. Arkansas hired Stan Heath in 2002. Heath is best known among IU fans for leading the Kent State team that lost to IU in the 2002 South Regional final. Heath was let go after last season, and Creighton coach Dana Altman was introduced as the new Arkansas coach before backing out within a day or so.

Notes:

• From 1990 through 1996, Arkansas reached the Sweet 16 or beyond 6 times in 7 seasons. Arkansas hasn't played on the second weekend since then.
• Arkansas's current coach is John Pelphrey, a former Kentucky player who was a member of "the Unforgettables," Kentucky's 1992 team that exceeded all expectations and is best remembered for losing in the 1992 Elite Eight on Christian Laettner's shot.
• Arkansas has lost in the first round in its last four NCAA Tournament appearances. The Hogs last won a Tournament game in 1999 (Siena). Arkansas last defeated a team from one of the six "power conferences" in 1998 (Nebraska in the first round).
• On the flip side, IU has now won four consecutive first round games (Utah in 2002, Alabama in 2003, San Diego State in 2006, and Gonzaga in 2007). IU's last first round loss was to Kent State in 2001.
• IU won its first game of the Tournament in nine consecutive appearances from 1973 through 1984. After winning in the first round in his first nine NCAA appearances, Bob Knight went 8-7 in the first round from 1986-2000. Mike Davis and Kelvin Sampson then went 4-1 from 2001-2007.
• Since the field expanded to 64 teams in 1985, this is the seventh time IU has faced a "power conference" opponent in Round 1. IU is 2-4 with wins over Oklahoma (1998) and Alabama (2003) and with losses to California (1990), Missouri (1995), Boston College (1996), and Colorado (1997).
• Arkansas is 4-1 all time in NCAA Tournament games against Big Ten opponents: Arkansas beat Purdue (second round 1983), Iowa (first round 1985), Michigan (regional final 1994), and Penn State (first round 1996) and lost to Iowa (second round 1999).
• IU is 9-2 all time in NCAA Tournament games against SEC opponents. IU beat LSU (national semifinals in 1953), LSU (1954 consolation game), Tennessee (1955 consolation game), Kentucky (1973 regional final), Alabama (1976 Sweet 16), LSU (1981 national semifinal), LSU (1987 regional final), LSU (1992 second round), and Alabama (2003 first round). IU lost to Kentucky in the 1975 regional final and the 1983 Sweet 16.
• Beating an SEC team historically is a good omen for the Hoosiers. IU has defeated an SEC team en route to six of its eight Final Four appearances and four of five NCAA championships. Indeed, setting aside the 1954 and 1955 consolation game wins, the 2003 win over Alabama is the only win over an SEC team that didn't lead to a Final Four bid.

Indiana vs. Arkansas: tale of the tape.

Here's a quick comparison of tempo-free stats for IU and Arkansas, courtesy of Pomeroy's scouting reports for the Hoosiers and the Razorbacks (the parenthetical is the national rank), and other factors such as computer ratings. My usual color-coding won't work really well considering that the two teams wear the same colors. Since IU used to wear fire engine red, this is Indiana and this is Arkansas:

GENERAL

Record: IU 25-7; UA 22-11

RPI: IU 23; UA 32

Sagarin: IU 19; UA 39

Pace: IU 67.1 (167); UA 69.2 (92)

OFFENSE

Raw efficiency: IU 110.7 (34); UA 106.4 (90)

Adjusted efficiency: IU 116.4 (21); UA 11.0 (58)

Effective FG%: IU 52.4 (72); UA 51.7 (100)

Offensive rebound %: IU 36.2 (59); UA 38.0 (21)

Turnover %: IU 20.0 (106); UA 22.0 (235)

Free throw rate: IU 32.6 (11); UA 24.9 (186)

3 point %: IU 34.6 (186); UA 33.9 (216)

2 point %: IU 52.6 (37); UA 52.0 (49)

Free throw %: IU 76.3 (10); UA 67.2 (233)

Block %: IU 7.9 (76); UA 9.8 (230)

Steal %: IU 9.0 (97); UA 9.8 (156)

3PA/FGA: IU 34.8 (161); UA 30.2 (267)

Assists/made field goals: IU 52.0 (233); UA 54.4 (176)

DEFENSE

Raw efficiency: IU 95.4 (42); UA 96.5 (55)

Adjusted efficiency: IU 90.9 (31); UA 91.3 (35)

Effective FG%: IU 46.9 (48); UA 47.4 (63)

Offensive rebound %: IU 28.9 (30); UA 31.6 (110)

Turnover %: IU 19.4 (258); UA 21.2 (155)

Free throw rate: IU 30.0 (48); UA 36.5 (169)

3 point %: IU 33.9 (103); UA 32.6 (47)

2 point %: IU 44.7 (43); UA 46.6 (100)

Block %: IU 10.3 (90); UA 14.6 (13)

Steal %: IU 10.4 (140); UA 10.0 (165)

3PA/FGA: IU 35.6 (218); UA 35.3 (206)

Assists/made field goals: IU 56.1 (209); UA 52.3 (100)

It's not terribly surprising that although this is an 8/9 matchup, IU has a decided statistical advantage. IU is an eight seed because of abysmal recent performance, which hasn't been quite bad enough for long enough to ruin IU's once-excellent overall numbers. Still, IU's offense seems to be a bit more effective that the Razorbacks' offense while the defenses are fairly comparable. Arkansas blocks lots of shots and plays good three point defense, which, given Eric Gordon's recent slump, is not good news. On the flip side, IU excels at getting to the free throw line and Arkansas sends its opponents to the line quite a bit. If the three isn't falling, Gordon should drive early and often (but carefully, given the Hogs' shot-blocking prowess).

Given the coverage, which has centered on how IU needs to pick up the pace against Arkansas, I was surprised to see the Hogs' middling pace of 69.2 possessions per game, only 2.1 more per game than IU. In the linked article, Dan Dakich mention the Arkansas-Tennessee game in the SEC Tournament, but that 72 possession game was close to Tennessee's average than to that of Arkansas. Arkansas broke to 70 possession barrier only 6 times in 19 SEC games (compared to 4 times in 19 Big Ten games for IU). Certainly, Arkansas plays faster, but they aren't exactly like Loyola Marymount was in the 1980s.

More on Arkansas's season and individuals as the week continues.

Initial thoughts.

I haven't done a bit of homework yet, but I'll have much more to say about the Razorbacks as the week progresses. As for the bracket overall:

• It seems that the NCAA loved some clever matchups this year: the two freshman phenoms, Michael Beasley of Kansas State and OJ Mayo of Southern Cal, will play in the first round. I wonder if the possible UNC-IU matchup in round 2 was at all influenced by the opportunity for some more blathering about Dan Dakich's defense against Michael Jordan during IU's 1984 upset of top-ranked UNC.
• Not that I am banking on IU beating Arkansas--not in the least. The last time the committee tried to set up an IU-UNC matchup in round two was in 1997, when Dean Smith was on pace to break Adolph Rupp's record in the second round (in Winston-Salem, of course--has a highly ranked team from Duke or UNC ever had to leave the state for a first round game?). Unfortunately for CBS (I'm sure Jim Nantz had some schmaltzy catch-phrases ready for the Knight-Smith matchup), Chauncey Billups and Colorado made damn sure that IU wasn't going anywhere.
• Speaking of Arkansas, this will be only the second meeting between these two tradition-rich programs. I have no idea if the committee knew that. The only previous meeting was in Bloomington on December 15, 1949. IU won 75-50.
• Another little tidbit: the East region is the honorary "IU coaching search bracket." Including Dakich, five of the 16 coaches have been the subject of media speculation about the IU job: Washington State's Tony Bennett, Notre Dame's Mike Brey, Louisville's Rick Pitino, and Tennessee's Bruce Pearl.

NCAA to Big Ten: drop dead.

IU is seeded #8, playing an improving Arkansas team that finished second in the SEC tournament. If IU wins its first game on in Raleigh, NC on Friday, the Hoosiers will play top-ranked North Carolina on Sunday. Other than Michigan State, which is a five, #3 seed Wisconsin and #6 seed Purdue seem a bit low. Clearly, the Committee did not believe in the Big Ten this year, and IU in particular seems to have been knocked down because of its recent play. Much more later, of course.

IU against Big Ten NCAA Tournament teams on the road, 1985-1994.

Yesterday, I listed IU's results against Big Ten teams that qualified for the NCAA Tournament. It wasn't pretty. The Hoosiers have won only three such games in the last 13 seasons. The cutoff I chose was 1994, which was Bob Knight's last Sweet 16 team. To determine how noteworthy that 3-46 record is, I figured I better compare it to the ten years prior, from 1985 (the first year of the 64-team tournament and the first year that "NCAA Tournament team" came to mean what it means now). Here goes:

1985

Illinois

Ohio State L 84-86

Michigan State L 61-68

Michigan W 87-62

Purdue L 52-62

1986

Michigan L 52-83

Michigan State W 97-79

Iowa L 69-79

Illinois W 61-60

Purdue L 68-85

1987

Purdue L 64-75

Michigan W 85-84

Illinois L 67-69

Ohio State W 92-80

Iowa L 88-101

1988

Purdue L 85-95

Illinois W 75-74

Michigan L 72-92

Iowa L 70-84

1989

Iowa L 70-87

Minnesota W 75-62

Illinois L 65-75

Michigan W 71-70

1990

Purdue L 49-72

Illinois L 65-70

Michigan State L 66-72

Minnesota L 89-108

Michigan L 71-79

Ohio State L 67-69

1991

Purdue W 65-62

Ohio State L 95-97

Iowa W 99-79

Michigan State W 62-56

1992

Iowa W 64-60

Michigan State L 60-76

Ohio State W 86-80

Michigan L 60-68

1993

Purdue W 74-65

Iowa W 73-66

Michigan W 76-75

Illinois W 83-79

1994

Michigan L 67-91

Illinois L 81-88

Purdue L 76-83

Michigan State L 78-94

Minnesota L 56-106

Wisconsin DNP

Thoughts:

• The record: 17-28.
• I thought about making the cut-off after 1993, Knight's last great team. That would have resulted in a record of 17-23 before the cutoff and 3-51 after.
• I often contended that because of the absence of a championship during that stretch, 1991-1993 is the most underrated stretch of Knight's career. During those 3 seasons, Knight was 9-3 on the road against Big Ten NCAA qualifiers.
• Even some of the less remarkable teams of this era did okay: 1985 (NIT) 1-3; 1986 (first round loss) 2-3; 1988 (first round loss) 1-3. Only the 1990 team, one of Knight's few seasons with a losing record in the conference, and the 1994 team, the beginning of the end, were shut out.

I don't know if it is cause or effect, but if IU wins at Michigan State, we may finally be putting the worst years behind us.

IU on the road against Big Ten NCAA Tournament teams, 1995-2007.

The most frustrating part of following IU for the last 13 years has been the Hoosiers' inability to win road games against anyone with a pulse. Here's how IU has done against Big Ten NCAA Tournament teams since 1995 (the year after Knight's last Sweet 16 appearance):

1995
Purdue L 66-76
Michigan L 50-61
MSU L 61-67
Minnesota DNP
Illinois L 67-78

1996
PSU L 68-82
Michigan L 75-80
Purdue L 69-74
Iowa L 50-76

1997
Wisconsin L 58-71
Minesota L 72-75
Illinois DNP
Purdue L 53-70
Iowa L 67-75

1998
MSU L 66-84
Purdue L 89-94
Michigan L 64-112
Illinois L 72-74

1999
Wisconsin DNP
Purdue W 87-76
MSU DNP
Ohio State L 56-73
Iowa L 52-67
Minnesota L 83-90

2000
Illinois
MSU L 71-77
OSU DNP
Purdue L 77-83
Wisconsin L53-56

2001
OSU W 70-67
Iowa L 66-71
Illinois DNP
MSU L 57-66
Penn State W 85-78
Wisconsin L 46-49

2002
Wisconsin DNP
MSU L 54-57
Illinois L 62-70
OSU L 67-73

2003
Wisconsin L 59-71
MSU L 54-61
Purdue L 47-69
Ill L 54-80

2004
Wisc L 45-79
MSU L 72-84
Illinois DNP

2005
Ill L 47-60
Wisc L 60-62
Minn L 65-70
MSU DNP
Iowa L 57-72

2006
Iowa L 60-73
Illinois DNP
MSU L 73-87
OSU L 58-70
Wisconsin L 54-72

2007
Wisconsin DNP
Purdue L 68-81
MSU L 58-66
OSU L 67-74
Illinois L 43-51

Thoughts:

• IU's total record on the road against Big Ten NCAA Tournament qualifiers is 3-46.
• 21 losses by double digits.
• Knight 1-22; Davis 2-20; Sampson 0-4.
• To some degree, this is self-fulfilling. IU hasn't been very good during that time frame, and road games against good teams are the toughest to win. Also, teams that lose at home to 20-10 type teams (IU's typical output from 1995 to present) are the sort of teams that miss the NCAA Tournament. For instance, IU's epic 20 point comeback at Michigan in 1997 probably cost the Wolverines a Tournament bid.
• Obviously, I need to take look at IU's results from 1985 (the first year of the 64-team Tournament) through 1994, but I'm too busy today.

The point, of course, is that a win at OSU, a likely NCAA team, would be one of IU's best wins in years, unfortunately.

UCLA 54, Indiana 49.

I suppose it's fitting that it was two of college basketball's most tradition-rich programs that set college basketball back to the peach basket era last night. UCLA was very impressive defensively, but even that defense can't quite account for 5-28 and 13 points for IU in the first half. Here's the ugly box score. The most disappointing statistic is the 10-21 freethrow shooting. As poorly as IU played offensively in the first half, the unforced errors are the most troubling. In a 59 possession game, even with IU's late run IU managed only .83 points per possession, although UCLA had only .91. Many will point to the impressive rebounding numbers, but of course those numbers are skewed by the sheer number of missed shots.

Still, for all of the ugliness on the court on in the statistics, IU rallied from a significant deficit playing in front of a hostile crowd against a #2 seed that played in the NCAA title game last season. Suffice it to say that if we are in this position after the first weekend next year, there will be much gnashing of teeth. For this season, the Sampson era is off to a promising start.

The UCLA game.

UCLA Bruins
Overall record: 27-5
Pac-10 record: 15-3 (plus 0-1 in conference tournament)
RPI: 2
Sagarin: 6
Series record: IU leads 6-5

IU and UCLA have a combined 16 NCAA titles. In the history of the NCAA Tournament, the only game that involved more combined championships was Kentucky's win over UCLA in the 1998 Sweet 16. Those two teams had 17 combined NCAA titles, although Kentucky would win its seventh a few days later. IU and UCLA last played in the West Regional final in Alberquerque in 1992, a game that IU won 106-79. IU and UCLA met in the first game of that season, in the Tipoff Classic in Springfield, Mass., and UCLA won 87-72. In that game, Bob Knight famously ended Chris Reynolds's red shirt season in the middle of the game. Reynolds began the game in streetclothes and ended it in uniform.

Of the 11 games between IU and UCLA, three have been in the NCAA Tournament (including the aforementioned 1992 game). UCLA defeated IU in the 1973 Final Four national semifinals, when UCLA was in the midst of its record 88-game winning streak and its long NCAA championship streak. IU returned the favor in the 1976 national semifinals as IU proceeded to its own undefeated national championship. Also, UCLA, led by future Pacer legend Reggie Miller, defeated IU in the 1985 NIT championship game.

Other than Ohio State, UCLA is IU's most formidable opponent of the season. Here is Ken Pomeroy's UCLA scouting report, and here's how UCLA's numbers compare to those of IU:

Efficiency
Pace: Indiana 64 possessions per game (267/215); UCLA 64.3 (257/274)
Offensive efficiency: Indiana 1.105 points per possession (37/9); UCLA 1.116 (27/19)
Defensive efficiency: Indiana .967 points per possession (59/42) ;UCLA .928 (14/9)

Offense
Effective field goal percentage (extra credit for made three pointers): Indiana 52.4 (78); UCLA 54.2 (27)
Turnover percentage: Indiana 19.0 (61); UCLA 18.3 (34)
Offensive rebound percentage: Indiana 35.6 (91); UCLA 34.7 (130)


Defense
Effective field goal percentage: Indiana 46.7 (45); UCLA 47.8 (82)
Turnover percentage: Indiana 22.2 (101); UCLA 23.3 (51)
Offensive rebounding percentage: Indiana 32.5 (126); UCLA 29.9 (39)

What does this tell us? UCLA is statistically superior to IU in nearly every category and played a quality schedule. IU s better than Gonzaga by the numbers, but UCLA's status as the comfortable favorite is supported by these numbers. UCLA's top three scorers, Aaron Affalo, Josh Shipp, and Darren Collison are all threats from three point range. Affalo shoots 6.5 threes a game and makes about 38 percent.

This has been a promising season, and will remain so even if IU falls short tonight. A win, on the other hand, would put IU in a great position, would increase the buzz around Sampson's IU program as we approach the summer recruiting season, and would be a great start to the new era of IU basketball.

Indiana 70, Gonzaga 57

That was a really nice win. After a competitive first half, we managed to expand our lead in the second half. Gonzaga pulled to within 3, at 38-35 at the 17:37 mark. Rod Wilmont hit a three at the 17:00 mark, and the Bulldogs never were within a possession again. Neither team shot particularly well, although IU did manage 47 percent in the second half. In the first half, IU shot only 34 percent but managed 38 percent (7-18) from behind the arc, which accounted for the lead. My quick calculations indicate a 66 possession game--nothing out of the ordinary for Gonzaga, but run-and-gun by Big Ten standards. As the Wonk notes, this was an outstanding performance for the Hoosier defense, or at least a fairly deficient performance by Gonzaga's offense. The Wonk says 67 possessions, I say 66, but in any event, something in the neighborhood of .86 points per possession for the Zags, while IU was just south of 1.0. Again, this was a quicker game than most of the games IU played during the Big Ten season, so while the 13 turnovers may look a bit high, the 19.6 turnover percentage is just a tick higher than IU's 18.9 average in Big Ten play.

The Big Ten has taken quite a bit of grief for the style of play and the number of bids and quality of seeds that the tournament committee awarded to the Big Ten. I'm not really a "conference pride guy," meaning I don't feel any particular obligation to root for Purdue or Illinois or Wisconsin in the tournament because it's "good for the Big Ten." I vaguely hope that the Big Ten does well, but it doesn't mean I will sit down on the couch and root for Purdue in the tournament. Today might be an exception. The criticism of the Big Ten has been so harsh that I would love to see a 6-0 start, even if it means rooting for the loathesome Boilers and Illini. I love that MSU managed lull a quality Big East team that averages over 67 possessions per game into a snail's pace, 58 possession game, and won comfortably. IU played at a faster pace than normal, and won comfortably. I realize that ugly, slow basketball does not always indicate good defense, but at the same time, a 49-45 score does not always indicate a poorly played game, and I'm sick of the simpletons in the media who say so.

More on Gonzaga.

IU’s defensive problems this season have been on the interior. Our 2-point field goals allowed percentage is very pedestrian, but at least for most of the season, our three point defense was the best in the Big Ten. Gonzaga, despite the aforementioned loss of Josh Heytvelt to the devil ‘shrooms, is still pretty tall, with two 6-9 guys in the starting lineup. The Zags leading scorer is Derek Raivio, who averages 18.2 points on only 12 shots per game. As the Wonk has noted, the Bulldogs don’t shoot three pointers often, but they shoot them well. Raivio is the most frequent long bomber for the ‘Zags. He shoots 6.6 threes a game and makes 41 percent. Other than the departed Heytvelt, Gonzaga has only one other double digit scorer, point guard Jeremy Pargo, who averages 12.2 points a game on 8.4 shots per game. This article from the Seattle Post-Intelligencer notes the production increases of 6-6 David Pendergraft, 6-8 Micah Downs, and 6-9 Abdulli Kuso since Heytvelt’s suspension. Pendergraft and Downs have doubled their points per game since then, which makes a look at Gonzaga’s season stats a bit misleading. For programs that play in major conferences, the latter two thirds of the season tend to be a more reliable indicator of a team’s quality because of better competition and more uniform competition as compared to other major conference teams. For Gonzaga, it’s a bit different. The Bulldogs play the bulk of their high quality opponents in the non-conference season to offset the comparatively weaker WCC schedule. Accordingly, it is tough to give as much weight to those players’ increased production as it would be if they had done so with a more "conventional" major program.

I don't have any parting thoughts of any significance in this, my last post before IU begins (and possibly ends) its 2007 NCAA Tournament appearance. By the numbers, by seed, by the Vegas odds, IU is a narrow but decided favorite. The Hoosiers should win, but a Gonzaga win would not be a momentous upset. As of noon today, the ESPN Bracket Challenge entrants favored Gonazaga by about a 55/45 margin. I love picking against the trendy upset. I don't expect great things from IU in this tournament, and I will be quite surprised if I am writing a preview this time next week, but winning an NCAA Tournament game would be a nice step and a nice reward for team and coach after a promising first season. Let's go Hoosiers.

Indiana and Gonzaga, toe to toe.

The numbers are courtesy Ken Pomeroy and Big Ten Wonk. You should know that, because you should be reading those guys anyway. The number in the parentheses is the national rank, with the Pomeroy weighted ranking as the second parenthetical number in the efficiency rankings:

Efficiency

Pace: Indiana 64 possessions per game (267/215); Gonzaga 69.4 possessions per game (82/108)

Offensive efficiency: Indiana 1.105 points per possession (37/9); Gonzaga 1.124 points per possession (22/31)

Defensive efficiency: Indiana .967 points per possession (59/42) ;Gonzaga .992 points per possession (97/79)

Pomeroy also uses some sort of method that I don't fully understand for adjusting the above statistics based upon the quality of opposition. In all of those measures, Indiana does better than its raw score and Gonzaga does worse.

Offense

Effective field goal percentage (extra credit for made three pointers): Indiana 52.4 (78); Gonzaga 54.5 (22)

Turnover percentage: Indiana 19.0 (61); Gonzaga 18.8 (51)

Offensive rebound percentage: Indiana 35.6 (91); Gonzaga 33.6 (163)

Defense

Effective field goal percentage: Indiana 46.7 (45); Gonzaga 46.6 (44)

Turnover percentage: Indiana 22.2 (101); Gonzaga 18.7 (295)

Offensive rebounding percentage: Indiana 32.5 (126); Gonzaga 29.9 (39)

So what does this tell us? Gonzaga plays faster, but Indiana is in the Big Ten, so that is understood. Both teams are efficient on offense, while IU is a bit tougher on defense. The two teams' offensive numbers are strikingly similar across the board. The main distinctions come on defense, where IU forces more turnovers and Gonzaga is a much better defensive rebounding team. Mitigating Gonzaga's advantages are IU's stronger schedule (hence IU's more favorable rating in Pomeroy's weighted stats) and the fact that Gonzaga lost its best big man because of a drug possession charge. IU is justifiably favored in this game.

More on the individuals later.

And the worst five.

1. Pepperdine, NCAA first round 2000. We didn't know it at the time, but this was Bob Knight's last game at Indiana. The 2000 team frustrated. They started well, with a huge win over Kentucky, but never quite recovered from blowing a five point lead at Breslin against eventual NCAA champ Michigan State. IU also lost on the road to Dan Monson's first Minnesota team, in Joel Pryzbilla's last game for the Gophers. IU then lost in the 4/5 game of the Big Ten Tournament to Illinois, and a team that looked like it had the potential to return IU to the top echelon ended with a sixth seed.

Coincidentally, the week of the NCAA Tournament was the week that the now-defunct CNN/SI TV network finished its work on the Bob Knight expose. CNN/SI managed to obtain (from Ron Felling, if I recall correctly) a copy of the video of Knight's choke/push/adjustment of Neil Reed. Whatever one thinks or thought of Knight and his methods, that story must have put a tremendous amount of strain on the team. I hoped they would rally around the coach, but unfortunately, the Hoosiers looked like they were mailing it in, losing by 20.

2. Kansas, 1993 NCAA regional final. This was The Team. IU had won titles in 1976, 1981, and 1987. So the timing was about right. IU returned four starters from a Final Four team, finished 31-3 and 17-1 in the Big Ten, was ranked #1, and looked powerful. Unfortunately, while IU survived Alan Henderson's knee injury with only one loss and still managed to get to the Elite Eight, Kansas simply had too much. In addition to Henderson's injury, Brian Evans, the lanky perimeter player who was forced into duty as Henderson's replacement, injured a finger in the Louisville Sweet 16 game and was not effective, either. The only flaw of that team was a lack of depth. I remain fully convinced that but for the Henderson injury, IU would have held it together and won it all.

3. Colorado, 1997 NCAA first round. This game was a red flag, an indication that something was really wrong with the IU program. IU started well in 1997, whipping Duke in the PNIT and ascending inot the top 10. But again, IU limped through the Big Ten season and ended up as a #8 seed against Colorado, with Chauncey Billups, a program that hadn't been to the tournament in eons. IU was absolutely spanked, much to the chagrin of the NCAA, which had placed IU in the same bracket as #1 seed North Carolina. Dean Smith entered the NCAA Tournament one win short of Adolph Rupp. Smith broke the record against Colorado instead of Indiana.

4. Boston College, 1994 NCAA Sweet 16. IU was the five seed and knocked off Ohio and Temple in the first two rounds. As importantly, Boston College upset top seeded North Carolina in round two, and therefore the Hoosiers' opponent was a bit less formidable than expected. Again, the Hoosiers were struck by an injury at the worst possible time. In the second round game against Temple, freshman point guard Sherron Wilkerson suffered a nasty spiral fracture of his leg, and injury that would cost him a full season. Would he have been enough to push the Hoosiers past BC and then Lon Kruger's Florida team? Who knows. IU has had so much success over the years that it seems like bad form to complain about injuries, but Wilkerson's was a tough one.

Tournament memories.

I have lived in Indiana for nearly all of my life, but I didn't become an IU fan until I enrolled in autumn 1992. Growing up in Indiana as a sports fan, it was impossible to not follow IU, so I remember the 1987 title, "the chair," the amazing 1989 team that won the Big Ten over Illinois and NCAA champ Michigan, and so forth, but not in the capacity of a fan. So, from 1992-93, here are my top four and bottom four NCAA Tournament games:

1. IU over Duke, 2002 NCAA Sweet 16: Ultimately, the Mike Davis era did not end well, but clearly, this was the highlight, and is the highlight of IU basketball over the last 20 seasons. That particular IU team had some great games, but ultimately ended the regular season 20-9 and outside the AP top 25. IU knocked off Utah in round one, and profited from UNC-Wilmington's upset of USC, and prevailed over Wilmington in round two. IU was fortunate that the South Regional was held in Lexington, Kentucky, that year. Many IU fans found their way into the building, and Kentucky fans hate Duke even more than they hate IU. That particular IU team thrived on three point shooting, but how many recall that in the amazing 17-point second-half comeback against Duke, IU did not make a three pointer? I still cannot watch the Dane Fife foul on Jay Williams.

This was an important win for IU because it proved that there was life after Knight for IU basketball. Clearly, the Davis era turned out to be a disaster. But I'll always be grateful to Davis for that team. Given his failings, it's amazing that it ever happened.

2. IU over Oklahoma, 2002 NCAA Tournament national semifinal. It's hard to believe Kelvin Sampson is on our side now. IU held on in the first half, and went crazy from three point range in the second half. Oklahoma was plagued by foul trouble and poor shooting. Jeff Newton played the game of his life in his hometown.

This game was special to me because it was the first Final Four game I ever attended in person--indeed, the first IU NCAA Tournament game I ever attended. A buddy and I drove to Atlanta on a lark and without tickets. After five minutes on the largely deserted streets of downtown Atlanta, we somehow stumbled into face value tickets for the seminfinals and the championship game. I still remember when it really sunk in what that 5th seed team had managed to do. After the game ended, my buddy and I were just shaking our heads and saying, "Monday night." "Monday night." At that moment, the Georgia Dome jumbotron displayed the last single bracket with "Indiana" on the top line.

3. IU over Kent State, 2002 NCAA South Regional final. This one felt more like a coronation than anything else. Because my buddies and I didn't see much postseason success during our years in Bloomington, we drove down to watch this one at the house of a firend of a friend. The Hoosiers let Kent stick around too long, but thanks to some incredible three point shooting, the Flashes never led. We then flocked to downtown Bloomington to watch the youngsters celebrate on Kirkwood Avenue. Hours later, we shook hands with Jared Jeffries, who had come to celebrate after the team returned from Lexington. Kent State was a formidable opponent. The #10 Flashes knocked out the #2 seed Alabama and the #3 seed Pitt before playing IU. Still, losing the regional final to a MAC school two days after beating top-ranked Duke would have taken all of the luster off that upset win.

4. IU over Louisville, 1993 NCAA Sweet 16. The last win for a great team. That edition of the Hoosiers won the Big Ten with a 17-1 record, swept the Fab Five, and finished the regular season ranked first in both polls. Unfortunately, IU could not overcome Kansas and big oafs like Greg Ostertaag in the regional final, but that Thursday night, as an IU freshman, I was already plotting my Saturday dash to Showalter Fountain.

The bottom four, as well as a systematic look at the 'Zags, later to come tonight.

The Gonzaga game (NCAA Tournament first round)

Gonzaga Bulldogs
Overall record: 23-10
West Coast Conference record: 11-3 (plus 2-0 in the tournament)
RPI: 60
Sagarin: 46
Series record: tied at 1-1

Eight years ago, Gonzaga was nothing but a delightful mid-major feel-good story. The Bulldogs reached the Elite Eight in 1999 and nearly defeated eventual NCAA champ Connecticut in the regional final. After that, coach Dan Monson left for Minnesota, and most expected that Gonzaga would be relegated to the dustbin of history like other mid-major darlings such as Ball State, Santa Clara, Miami of Ohio, Valparaiso, etc. Instead, while playing in the West Coast Conference and at a school that was barely known to the average sports fan a decade ago, Gonzaga has become a legitimate basketball power, even to the point that some have referred to the 'Zags as "Duke West" because of the media's adulation of this admirable program. Who would have guessed that Gonzaga would still be going strong in 2007 while Monson's career lies in ruin?

How have they done it? I really don't have a clue. Some have suggested that Few was the brains behind the whole operation in the first place. That could be true, or it could be after-the-fact rationalization. Whatever Monson contributed to the initial success of Gonzaga, it is clear that Mark Few is an excellent coach and, as importantly, has been willing to turn away power conference programs that have sought his services. Many mid-major schools have meager fan following, subpar academics, or various other flaws. Gonzaga, while it shares a state with two Pac-10 schools, seems to be the only show in town in Spokane, and despite recent success, neither Washington nor Washington State is a traditional basketball power. In other words, Gonzaga has an easier path than a school like Butler, which shares its city with the Colts and Pacers and its state with Indiana, Notre Dame, Purdue, and a host of respectable mid-majors with glass-slipper tournament histories (Indiana State, Evansville, Ball State, and Valparaiso have all made runs to the Sweet 16). Could it be the funny name? Really. Most Jesuit universities in the United States seem to bear the name of their home cities (e.g., Dayton, Detroit, St. Louis) or the names of one of the co-founders of the Jesuit order, St. Francis Xavier or St. Ignatius Loyola . Can't swing a dead cat in this country without hitting a "Xavier" or "Loyola." Instead, the university's founders made the fortuitous decision to name the school for St. Aloysius Gonzaga, an Italian nobleman who gave up his riches and rights of inheritance to join the Jesuit order and died in his early 20s. Would the 'Zags be the 'Zags if the school had been named "the University of Spokane" or "Loyola (Washington)"? Well, sure, they literally would not be "the 'Zags," but would they be in the position they are now? I don't know, but the funny name seems as good an explanation as any for why Gonzaga has been able to not just maintain its position at the top of a non-power conference, but has become a legitimate national power that generates interest and television ratings.

It's worse than I thought.

IU played its first round games in Indianapolis in 1993, when IU was the top seed in the Midwest and ranked #1 in the nation. Since then, IU has not played a first or second round game closer to Bloomington than Buffalo, which is about 550 miles (a good 9 hour drive) away.

Here are IU's opening round sites since 1993:

2007: Sacramento
2006: Salt Lake City
2005: n/a
2004: n/a
2003: Boston
2002: Sacramento
2001: San Diego
2000: Buffalo
1999: Orlando
1998: Washington
1997: Charlotte
1996: Orlando
1995: Boise
1994: Landover, MD

Now, I'm not complaining about this. Only once in the last 14 seasons has IU been seeded fourth or higher. That was in 2001, Mike Davis's first year. The NCAA introduced the pod system in 2002. Under the current arrangement, that IU team might have been closer to home than San Diego, where IU lost in the first round to 12 seed Kent State. As I noted below, we can solve this problem by improving our regular season performance. Frankly, it's easier now than it was in previous years. In 1992, IU blew the Big Ten championship and top seed in the Midwest or Southeast by losing the regular season finale at Purdue and instead became the #2 seed in the West. Of course, that IU team handled the adversity just fine: they cruised through the West Regional with four double digit wins, ended Shaquille O'Neal's college career in the second round, and spanked top-seeded UCLA 106-79 in the Regional Final in Alberquerque. Still, such a late season drop was much more significant then than it is now. Because of that late-season loss, IU was relegated to Boise for its first and second round games. If that happened today, IU still would have ended up in the West, but likely would have played its first round games in Cincinnati or Dayton in front of a partisan IU crowd.

I'll have more later on Gonzaga in particular and the bracket and selection process in general. It should be a fun week as always.

Gonzaga again.

IU plays Gonzaga for the second consecutive year in the NCAA Tournament. Last year, the Bulldogs eliminated IU in the second round after IU's first round win over the evil Steve Fisher and San Diego State. Clearly, Gonzaga is not the team they were last season. Adam Morrison is gone. Gonzaga did not win the WCC in the regular season but managed to defeat Santa Clara in the conference tournament. The game will be in Sacramento, not to terribly far (by western US standards, at least) from Gonzaga's campus in Spokane. The selection committee has dispatched IU to the western US several times in recent years, at least for the first couple of rounds. This year, IU is in the West region and will play out west if they advance to the Sweet 16. Sacramento should conjure up some nice memories for IU fans: IU beat Utah and UNC-Wilmington in 2002 on the way to the Final Four. That year, of course, IU was in the South and played at Rupp Arena in Lexington for the Sweet 16 and regional final.

Off the top of my head, IU played out west in 2006 (Salt Lake City), 2002 (Sacramento), 2001 (San Diego), and 1995 (Boise). That's five times in IU's last 11 NCAA appearances and four of the last five. It's well past time for us to control our own destiny by finishing as a top four (preferably number one) seed next season. More on this matchup and the tournament later.

I was a bit surprised by the seed. It is now even more frustrating that we lost that game to Illinis Friday night, because a win probably would have given IU a sixth seed and avoided playing UCLA in the second round in California (if IU beats Gonzaga.