Big Ten Bloggers poll, week 6.

As I said yesterday, I'll take a look at schedules of the contenders sometime early this week.

1. Purdue (19-5, 10-1). Last week: 2. I don't know how anyone could put anyone else here. Purdue leads the conference and is the only team with a road win against one of the top four.

2. Indiana (20-3, 9-1). Last week: 3. IU won a really challenging game at Illinois and handed OSU its first road loss. The Hoosiers, with MSU, PSU, and Northwestern remaining, should do no worse than 7-2 on the road in conference.

3. Wisconsin (19-4, 9-2). Last week: 1. The Badgers are undefeated against everyone but Purdue, but they are the first of the top four to lose a home game.

4. Michigan State (20-3, 8-2). Last week: 4. Michigan State can jump back in to the race this week with road games at Purdue and IU, but probably needs to win both to have a chance at the conference title.

5. Ohio State (16-8, 7-4). Last week: 5. OSU seems destined for best of the rest status, but the Buckeyes still have a few opportunities for signature wins.

6. Minnesota (15-7, 5-5). Last week: 6. Minnesota is holding on but needs quite a run to make the NCAA.

7. Iowa (11-14, 4-8). Last week: 7. Tough week for Iowa, and as PJS noted, quite a sloppy effort at the Barn.

8. Penn State (11-12, 3-8). Last week: 8. It gets ugly from here to the end.

9. Michigan (6-17, 2-9). Last week: 10. The Wolverines showed a little life with a home win against Penn State.

9. Illinois (10-14, 2-9). Last week: 9. I'm not sure where Illinois can go from here. They can go to hell as far as I'm concerned.

11. Northwestern (7-14, 0-10). Last week: 11. The worst Big Ten team in years.

Indiana 59, Ohio State 53.

Here's the box. IU finally played well in a game against a somewhat quality opponent on the road and led most of the way against Ohio State in Columbus. IU now begins a three game homestand against Wisconsin (Wednesday) Michigan State (Saturday) and Purdue (Tuesday) that likely will decide the Big Ten championship. If IU wins the next three, the Hoosiers likely will become the favorite to win the conference. Any misstep would give an advantage to whichever team manages to beat IU in Bloomington. Thanks to Purdue's win in Madison on Saturday, the Boilers are in a great position, but are disadvantaged in that they have to go to Bloomington and IU doesn't have to go to Mackey. Sometime early in the week I will take a look at the four contenders' remaining schedules (OSU's loss today probably ended OSU's slim hopes).

This was a snail slow game, if my math is correct, about 56.5 possessions per. OSU is always a slow, defensive minded team, and IU's zone really forced the Buckeyes to take their time today. OSU shot only 7-27 from three point range (26.5%), and that accounted for over half of OSU's 53 field goal attempts. In short, the zone worked, in that it forced a poor three point shooting team to bomb away (although OSU did shoot 50 percent from 2). Both teams had identical rebound numbers (10 offensive, 23 defensive), with both teams holding their own on the defensive end. Uncharacteristically, IU shot only one free throw until the last minute of the game, when OSU was forced to start fouling, but finished 7-7 for the game. OSU was 4-8 from the line. IU's total of seven turnovers isn't quite as impressive as it might be given the pace, but that's still less than a 13 percent turnover percentage. Very good. While IU led for most of the way, this really was a game of inches. IU shot just a bit better from the field, took just a little better care of the ball, and made free throws at the end. Still, a nice win over a talented team in a situation that seemed ripe for letdown. I'll come back with an edit to discuss the individual lines.

EDIT: the individuals:

• Absent a big change, I think DJ White will edge his teammate Eric Gordon for Big Ten MVP. White was great again today: 10-15 from the field, 13 rebounds, 21 points.
• Gordon scored 15 points on 10 shots, thanks to 3-8 from three point range. Gordon shot (and made) four free throws, all in the last 30 seconds of the game. He had two turnovers, but both were offensive fouls, one obvious and the other iffy.
• Jordan Crawford has been infuriating at times this season, but he's going to be a great player. Crawford has shot very well at times this season (not today), but he really played well outside of his 3-10 shooting today: 8 points, 6 rebounds, 7 assists, no turnovers.
• Lance Stemler really struggled: 1-6 from the field, including 0-4 from three. A couple of his good looks could have secured this game before the final minute.

It's going to be interesting to see what happens to the rotation at the 4. Kyle Taber played 16 minutes today, Mike White 2, Stemler 24, and Deandre Thomas none. It will be best for the team in the long term if White and Thomas can earn some of Stemler's and Taber's minute with their play, but Sampson seems to be sick of waiting for them to do so.

IU on the road against Big Ten NCAA Tournament teams, 1995-2007.

The most frustrating part of following IU for the last 13 years has been the Hoosiers' inability to win road games against anyone with a pulse. Here's how IU has done against Big Ten NCAA Tournament teams since 1995 (the year after Knight's last Sweet 16 appearance):

1995
Purdue L 66-76
Michigan L 50-61
MSU L 61-67
Minnesota DNP
Illinois L 67-78

1996
PSU L 68-82
Michigan L 75-80
Purdue L 69-74
Iowa L 50-76

1997
Wisconsin L 58-71
Minesota L 72-75
Illinois DNP
Purdue L 53-70
Iowa L 67-75

1998
MSU L 66-84
Purdue L 89-94
Michigan L 64-112
Illinois L 72-74

1999
Wisconsin DNP
Purdue W 87-76
MSU DNP
Ohio State L 56-73
Iowa L 52-67
Minnesota L 83-90

2000
Illinois
MSU L 71-77
OSU DNP
Purdue L 77-83
Wisconsin L53-56

2001
OSU W 70-67
Iowa L 66-71
Illinois DNP
MSU L 57-66
Penn State W 85-78
Wisconsin L 46-49

2002
Wisconsin DNP
MSU L 54-57
Illinois L 62-70
OSU L 67-73

2003
Wisconsin L 59-71
MSU L 54-61
Purdue L 47-69
Ill L 54-80

2004
Wisc L 45-79
MSU L 72-84
Illinois DNP

2005
Ill L 47-60
Wisc L 60-62
Minn L 65-70
MSU DNP
Iowa L 57-72

2006
Iowa L 60-73
Illinois DNP
MSU L 73-87
OSU L 58-70
Wisconsin L 54-72

2007
Wisconsin DNP
Purdue L 68-81
MSU L 58-66
OSU L 67-74
Illinois L 43-51

Thoughts:

• IU's total record on the road against Big Ten NCAA Tournament qualifiers is 3-46.
• 21 losses by double digits.
• Knight 1-22; Davis 2-20; Sampson 0-4.
• To some degree, this is self-fulfilling. IU hasn't been very good during that time frame, and road games against good teams are the toughest to win. Also, teams that lose at home to 20-10 type teams (IU's typical output from 1995 to present) are the sort of teams that miss the NCAA Tournament. For instance, IU's epic 20 point comeback at Michigan in 1997 probably cost the Wolverines a Tournament bid.
• Obviously, I need to take look at IU's results from 1985 (the first year of the 64-team Tournament) through 1994, but I'm too busy today.

The point, of course, is that a win at OSU, a likely NCAA team, would be one of IU's best wins in years, unfortunately.

The Ohio State game.

Ohio State Buckeyes

Current record: 16-7

Big Ten record: 7-3

Current RPI: 31

Current Sagarin: 30

2006-07 record: 30-3, 15-1 (NCAA runner-up)

2006-07 RPI: 1

2006-07 Sagarin: 2

Series: IU leads 99-72

Last IU win: 1/7/06 (81-79 in Bloomington)

Last Ohio State win: 1/2/07 (74-67 in Columbus)

Last IU win in Columbus: 1/20/04 (69-61)

TV: 1 pm Sunday, CBS

Pomeroy profile

Blogs: Eleven Warriors, Around the Oval, The Buckeye Blog

Eleven Warriors has a nice preview up.

While Ohio State is flying beneath the radar, escaping the attention given to the top four teams in the standings (IU, Purdue, Wisconsin, and Michigan State), the Buckeyes still have the opportunity to make a run in the Big Ten and should qualify for the NCAA Tournament. While IU already is finished with Iowa, Illinois, and Michigan, this is the Hoosiers' first look at the Buckeyes. This game is also IU's last good chance to win a quality road game. After this game, IU has only three road games remaining: a likely loss at MSU and likely wins at Penn State and Northwestern. A win tomorrow would make a 16-2 conference record a realistic possibility.

The Buckeyes play slowly (64.8 possessions per game) and, like Illinois, distinguish themselves with their field goal defense. They allow 42.9 % from two point range (#22) and 30.2 percent from three (#17). Offensively, other than two point field goal percentage (#58), OSU really doesn't distinguish itself. The Buckeyes are really bad at getting to the line and at shooting three pointers, but basically are middling at everything else. OSU's only home loss was in the Big Ten/ACC challenge to North Carolina. The Buckeyes, like most teams that have had success against IU. Of the nine Buckeyes who play meaningful minutes, four are 6-8 or taller and all but two are 6-5 or taller.

Senior guard Jamar Butler is the key to OSU's offense. He shoots 41 percent from three point range and averages 14.8 points per game. Othello Hunter averages only 9.5 points per game but he shoots 57 percent from the field. Hunter and Kosta Koufos (OSU's only other double digit scorers) are basically tied with about 6.7 rebounds per game.

Pomeroy gives Ohio State about a 55 percent chance of winning. IU must be drained after the effort Thursday night. This feels like a letdown game, and if IU wins, in whatever manner, we should feel good about it.

Indiana 83, Illinois 79 (2OT).

As I said last night, I can't believe IU won. I wasn't confident going in, the atmosphere was even worse than expected, and IU ended up down 10 in the second half, thanks to the Illini's uncharacteristically good performance from behind the arc. Eric Gordon struggled, scoring only one point in the first half and finishing 3-13 from the field. Still, despite a nice performance from Illinois, IU pulled it out.

About that atmosphere. IU fans are not innocent in this regard. Transfer Luke Recker and hometown product/legacy Sean May were treated poorly by IU fans when they played in Assembly Hall in recent years, as was Lawrence Funderburke back when I was a student. When I was a student, I thought it was just great. By the time the Recker/May games rolled around, I thought it was a bit much. The booing, the chants, and all that aren't classy, but they happen everywhere. And I certainly won't object to the well-deserved ribbing that Kelvin Sampson takes for his NCAA violations. My problem with Illinois is that the atmosphere wasn't a grass roots exercise spurred by immature and intoxicated students: at Illinois, it starts at the top. Illinois athletic director Ron Guenther repeatedly has referred to Gordon's change of heart as a "defection" (who the hell does Guenther think he is, Fidel Castro?). Weber complains about it constantly, particularly in the press conferences surrounding the first IU game, when he discussed being one player away and all that. Of course Weber is right, to a degree. As I have noted in most of my previous posts, Illinois does lots of things very well, but offsets those successes by shooting very poorly most of the time. This would be a much better Illinois team if Eric Gordon were on the team. But he's not, and he never will be.

Weber should look in the mirror and ask himself how in the world a program that played in the NCAA title game in 2005 can be so dependent on a single one-and-done recruit that the program ends up in the cellar without him. He also should ask himself whether his constant whining enhances the public image of his program. He and Illini fans have allowed Eric Gordon's switch to become the defining moment of his program. At some point, he should move forward, accept it, and try to beat Kelvin Sampson for the next recruit. For a college head coach, Weber just doesn't seem to relish competition. In his press conference last night, all he did was whine about the bad bounces that the Illini have had this year. They have had some bad bounces, but they also shoot 30 percent from three point range and 60 percent from the line. Any team with numbers like that is going to lose a bunch of games. As I said, the chants were going to happen no matter what. But Weber's constant complaining about this certainly fuels the anger of the Illinois fans. I won't blame him for the chants, but I will blame him for promoting an atmosphere that led to debris raining down on the Gordons and an Illinois player taking a cheap shot at Gordon during introductions. The game should have begun with two shots and the ball for IU. What kind of wuss must one be to take a cheap shot at someone during introductions? The kind of player who plays for a self-pitying, mouth-breathing crybaby like Bruce Weber, apparently. He complains publicly. He won't shake the hands of IU players or assistants. All this over a 17 year-old who changed his mind about where to go to college.

Box score. Yes, there was a basketball game, and a damn good one. It is to the Illini's credit that watching them play IU is a stressful experience--I can't imagine what it's like to play them. They defend well, crash the offensive boards, yet still manage to get back on defense to prevent transition opportunities. Pomeroy's tempo-free numbers for this game aren't up yet, but this appears to have been about a 77 possession game, which computes to about 61.5 possessions for a 40 minute game. So the pace certainly was consistent with Illinois's game. It certainly felt as if the Illini shot better than 36 percent from behind the arc, probably because of the sheer number of threes made (11). The Hoosiers also made 11 on 23 attempts. Illinois took more shots, mostly because they took good care of the ball (11 turnovers, which is very good for a 77 possession game) and didn't shoot many free throws. Ultimately, the Hoosiers won the game at the line, with 22-29 compared to Illinois's 8-17. Neither team rebounded all that well offensively, given the number of missed shots. Really, this was a pretty evenly matched game that came down to free throws at key moments at the end of regulation and overtimes, and IU made shots while Sean Pruitt did not.

Individuals:

• Further evidence that Eric Gordon isn't capable of a truly bad game. Sure, 3-13 and seven turnovers are bad numbers, and the 10 second violation was inexcusable, but Gordon still scored 19 points thanks to the free throws.
• Jamarcus Ellis also shot poorly (9 points on 10 shots), including two free throws that could have ended the game in the first overtime. Still, 11 rebounds on 3 steals.
• DJ White's line wasn't as impressive as in other games (17 points on 11 shots, 9 rebounds), but he also added 3 steals and 2 blocks.
• Jordan Crawford is always dangerous to one team, and fortunately he was dangerous to the opponent this time. 18 points on 13 shots, 4-6 from three point range, only 2 turnovers in 32 minutes.
• Armon Bassett scored 16 points on eight shots. Despite 3-8 from the field, he was 8-8 from the line, mostly in the second overtime.
• Kyle Taber, by playing invisible, mistake free ball, continues to take minutes from Mike White and Deandre Thomas. In 21 minutes, Taber made his only shot (a putback), pulled down three rebounds, and didn't turn the ball over (although he did bobble a ball that he could have saved from going out of bounds). Hopefully his do-no-harm approach will provide an example to his teammates at the power forward position.

Well, I'm glad it's over, although IU certainly could face the Illini in the BTT if the Illini win on the first day. IU now plays at Ohio State on Sunday (thankfully, it's not Saturday, so the Hoosiers will have some time to recover. After that, IU plays home games against Wisconsin, Michigan State, and Purdue. While IU has a good chance to win each individual game, even a 3-1 record over that stretch will put IU in excellent position to contend for the Big Ten title and a high seed. IU is now 4-1 on the road in the Big Ten with Penn State and Northwestern still remaining (in addition to OSU, a toss-up, and MSU, a likely loss). If the Hoosiers can continue to defend their homecourt, and especially if they pick up a win in Columbus, they will be in the hunt for the conference title until the very end.

We won that game.

I still can't believe it. For the record, Bruce Weber, Chester Frazier, and every member of the Orange Krush can blow me.

Ratliff to miss tonight's game.

AJ Ratliff, who missed the first semester for academic reasons, is staying home tonight to "deal with a family member," per Ratliff's guardian (as reported by Hoosier Scoop). Ratliff, who shot 40 percent from three point range and scored 9.3 points per game last year, has been brutal this year in the nine games since his return (18.5% from the field, 16.5% from three, 1.7 ppg). His 2-7 from the field performance in the first Illinois game accounted for his season high of 7 points (he has only eight points in the other eight games). Hopefully, AJ can resolve whatever issues he is addressing today and also regain his 2006-07 form, but he has shown no sign of it so far.

More Illinois stuff.

No, not Eric Gordon stuff, but the actual game. Taking a quick look at the team's Pomeroy profiles, here's what we find:

IU's strengths:

• productive shooting (53.9 effective FG% (#37 nationally)
• offensive rebounding (37%, #49)
• defensive rebounding (#18)
• blocking shots (#33 by percentage)
• getting to the line (#19 in free throw rate
• two point field goal defense (43.2%, #26)
• shooting defense (45.2 EFG, #45)

IU's weaknesses:

• offensive turnover percentage (20.6, #121)
• defensive turnover percentage (20.8, #195)

Illinois's strengths:

• field goal defense (30.8 three point percentage (#28) and 44.5 from two (#47)
• offensive rebounding (38 percent, #23)
• defensive rebounding (#81)

Illinois's weaknesses:

• productive shooting (48.3 effective FG%, #228 nationally)
• Getting to the line (#270 in free throw rate)
• shooting free throws (60%, #330)
• three point shooting (30 percent, #321)
• forcing turnovers (#221 in TO%, #307 in steal %)

Really, IU doesn't have many glaring weaknesses compared to Illinois. Other than defensive turnover rate, IU is in the top have of Division I in every quality-based measure. Unfortunately, IU's biggest problem in recent losses, making baskets, plays in to Illinois's only real strength, field goal defense. Illinois does not shoot well from anywhere, but particularly not from the line or from three point range. Fouls, as long as IU isn't in foul trouble, won't necessarily hurt. This might be a good game to give Taber, Deandre, Mike White, and Brandon McGee ample minutes and ample fouls. I can't say I'm looking forward to this game, but it will be interesting to see if a Sampson-led team can finally have an explosive offensive performance against Illinois.

Knight roundup.

I'm not going to cover the Knight story to death (my goodness, between the Knight retirement and Eric Gordon's trip to Champaign, Musberger and Lavin probably won't even notice the basketball game transpiring in front of them), but did want to provide some links:

• the Texas Tech blog Double-T Nation has lots of thoughtful coverage of the issue. For those of you who haven't followed Knight career at TT closely (that includes me), DTN's Monday night post provides some background about Knight's recruiting and the like.
• In Big Ten circles, Black Heart Gold Pants (Iowa) weighs in favorably and the Buckeye Blog (OSU, obviously), less favorably. Just a reminder to our Ohio brethren: Knight was a Buckeye before he was a Hoosier. How were we to teach him any manners after four years in Columbus. He did throw a chair, but at least it wasn't on fire.
• The Louisville Courier-Journal has an article quoting former players and current IU officials about the possibility of IU honoring Knight. All seem to agree that it would be appropriate, but both IU AD Greenspan and assistant AD Kit Klingelhoffer (who has been at IU for nearly 40 years) seem pessimistic about it happening anytime soon.

Illinois, take two.

Illinois Fighting Illini

Current record: 10-13

Big Ten record: 2-8

Current RPI: 123

Current Sagarin: 87

2006-07 record:

2006-07 RPI: 30

2006-07 Sagarin: 51

Series: IU leads 82-77

Last IU win: 1/13/08, 62-58 in Bloomington

Last Illinois win: 3/9/07, 58-54 (OT) in Chicago (BTT quarterfinals)

Last IU win in Champaign: 2/24/99 (70-64 in OT)

TV: 9 pm Thursday, ESPN

Pomeroy profile

The Illini, just three years removed from a one-loss regular season and NCAA title game appearance, would require a dramatic turnaround even to find themselves in NIT contention. Still, the Illini were very effective against IU in the Hoosiers' close win in Bloomington a month ago and have invariably played the Hoosiers tough during the Weber era. Weber is 6-3 against IU, and the three Illinois losses have been by four points or fewer. IU's effective field goal percentage (the Pomeroy metric that includes free throws in the calculation) of 44.9% is IU's second lowest total of the season (the loss to Wisconsin was worse). Last year, Illinois (in the two losses, in Champaign and Chicago) was responsible for two of IU's six worst EFG performances. IU managed a 50 percent EFG in the 2006-07 win in Bloomington, but IU's EFG was worse than 50 percent in only 13 of IU's 32 games that season. In short, win or lose, no Sampson-led IU team has had a good offensive game against Illinois. IU currently ranks #37 nationally with an EFG of 53.5, while 44.9 is a sub-300 average. So, IU, normally one of the most efficient shooting teams in the country, was made to look like one of the worst on its home court by an Illinois team that is now 2-8 in the Big Ten. Is it clear that I'm worried about this game?

My concerns go beyond the objective, obviously. To hear Bruce Weber and his compliant downstate media types talk, Eric Gordon's decision to back out of his verbal commitment to Illinois and attend Indiana is the only reason that Illinois isn't in the top 10 this year. While I think it would be in the best interest of the Illinois program and Bruce Weber for all involved to move on, they may have a point, given how well Illinois does everything except shoot and force turnovers. Still, they haven't moved on. Not by a longshot. The Orange Krush will be in rare form tomorrow night and the Illini team will be pumped up. After a rough first half against Wisconsin, Gordon has shot well despite the splint on his non-shooting hand. He can do it physically, but playing at the other Assembly Hall, the place where he once thought he would be playing college basketball, will present a psychological challenge. Writers and fans often overestimate the effect of intangibles on any given game, but such things will matter in this game. The Illini are 10-13 with nine games remaining, including the first game of the Big Ten Tournament. To so much as qualify for a NIT bid, the Illini must win at least seven of those games. Illinois has played the toughest part of its schedule, but with four road games left plus home games against Michigan State and Wisconsin, such an outcome is not likely. In other words, tomorrow night is the Illini's bowl game, so to speak. The Hoosiers need to approach this one like it's the NCAA Tournament, or they will lose.

Tomorrow I will take a closer look at the tempo free stats and other matters.

Signing day!

As you will note from the nearly complete absence of posts on the topic, recruiting isn't my thing, particularly football recruiting. Still, today is national signing day for football, and IU is updating its website throughout the day. As of 8:45 the IU site shows ten letters of intent, including from one of the class's gems, Franklin Central running back Darius Willis.

Bob Knight resigns.

Numerous media sources report that former IU coach Bob Knight, the winningest coach in NCAA Division I and Big Ten history, has resigned as Texas Tech's basketball coach. Pursuant to his contract, former Hoosier player Pat Knight will become the head coach at Texas Tech. As yet, there is nothing on the official TT site, but check here for updates if you are so inclined. If this is the end for Knight, he finishes his career with an all-time Division I record of 902 wins. He won 661 games in 29 seasons at IU, plus three NCAA titles, one NIT title, a title in the short-lived College Coaches Association postseason tournament, and eleven Big Ten titles.

Knight currently has a complicated relationship with the school where he enjoyed his greatest success. Knight was fired in September 2000 by former IU president Myles Brand. Brand, instead of helping the IU community heal after a painful episode, elected to use his new-found fame resulting from the Knight firing to his professional and financial advantage. Brand gave a number of self-congratulatory speeches and interviews in the aftermath of the Knight firing and ultimately parlayed his status as a hero to university presidents by becoming the president of the NCAA. Brand resigned as IU president on October 10, 2002 to become president of the NCAA, effective January 1, 2003. Brand gave IU less than three months notice of his resignation, an incredibly short notice period for a university president, and forced IU into a lengthy interim presidency. Reasonable people can disagree about whether Knight should have been fired. That Myles Brand placed his career ahead of the interests of the IU community is beyond debate in my mind.

Unfortunately, Knight has been embroiled in litigation against IU in the seven years since his firing. Knight isn't in the IU Athletics Hall of Fame, and it seems fairly clear that he would decline the honor if offered. Despite significant turnover in the president's office, the Board of Trustees, and in the athletic department administration since September 2000, Knight has shown no inclination toward mending fences. When he broke Dean Smith's Division I wins record, he pointedly avoided any public mention of IU. His resentment toward the IU leadership is understandable, but "IU" is more than its administration, of course, and includes the fans who so staunchly defended him after various misunderstandings and worse. Knight doesn't much like Kelvin Sampson, so any reconciliation in the near future seems unlikely.

For years, Dick Vitale blathered on about how IU should name the Assembly Hall court after Knight before someone informed Vitale that the court already is named after Branch McCracken. As sick as I am of Vitale's well-worn material, I certainly do hope that Coach Knight will someday come back to be honored as he deserves, that he will allow IU fans to give him the proper sendoff that he never received. If I had to bet I would predict that it will never happen, but I hope I'm wrong. Nevertheless, IU fans owe much to Knight, who whatever troubles his temper caused him, led IU's basketball program admirably and ethically for three decades and provided the school's greatest period of basketball success. For that, he deserves our thanks for the memories and best wishes in retirement.

UPDATE: A word on the midseason timing, which doesn't shock me. I can't find a link, but I recall Knight speaking with some admiration about the decision of former North Carolina coach Dean Smith to resign in September, immediately before the start of the basketball season. If I recall correctly, Knight said that he usually dreaded the recruiting and schmoozing associated with the offseason, so resigning immediately after the season might not be the best option, but that when he was tired of the basketball, he would know it was time. This sort of timing isn't unprecedented for coaching legends: John Thompson resigned on January 8, 1999. Also, Dick Bennett resigned at Wisconsin early in the 2000-01 season, although he ultimately returned to coaching at Washington State.

Time warp.

Who will step up to help Keith Smart and Dean Garrett fill the void created by the graduation of Steve Alford and Daryl Thomas? Will David Rivers recover from his off-season car accident and lead the Irish back to the Sweet 16? With the help of Troy Lewis and Todd Mitchell, can Gene Keady finally move beyond a gaudy regular season record and score some NCAA Tournament success?*

Those were the storylines on December 8, 1987, the last time that Indiana (#6), Purdue (#13), and Notre Dame (#19) were all ranked by the AP (it then was the top 20). Today, IU fell to #14, Notre Dame broke into the poll at #22, and Purdue made its season debut at #24. Butler is #10, so the state of Indiana is well represented.

* No.

Big Ten Bloggers poll, week 5.

Quite an interesting weekend in the Big Ten. While anything can happen, for now it appears to be a three-team race for the Big Ten title. Of the top 4, IU, Purdue, and Wisconsin each have one road loss to a top 4 team. MSU has lost two games to teams that won't sniff the NCAA Tournament. The Spartans are good enough to beat any of the top 3 on the road, and that's exactly what MSU will have to do to have a chance. Holding serve at home won't be enough.

1. Wisconsin (18-3, 8-1). Last week: 2. This was a tough call, but the Badgers dominated IU for most of the game and avoided a letdown at the Barn yesterday.

2. Purdue (17-5, 8-1). Last week: 1. Purdue played well against Illinois but nearly gacked up a home game against Iowa. They still have as good a chance as anyone to win the conference.

3. Indiana (18-3, 7-1). Last week: 4. IU mostly was kicked around by the Badgers and played terrible defense in a 12 point home win against Northwestern, but they didn't lose to Penn State, at least.

4. Michigan State (19-3, 7-2). Last week: 3. Tom Izzo must be beside himself. MSU was the preseason favorite but has looked bad on the road so far.

5. Ohio State (15-7, 6-3). Last week: 5. That loss at Iowa probably took OSU out of the running for the championship, but OSU still ought to make the tournament.

6. Minnesota (13-7, 3-5). Last week: 6. Tubby has done a nice job in year one, but Minnesota now has lost its home games against IU, Wisconsin, and MSU. The Gophers probably needed one of those to make the NCAA Tournament.

7. Iowa (11-12, 4-6). Last week: 7. Like Minnesota, the Hawkeyes are competing admirably under a new coach, and could make the NIT if they continue to play well.

8. Penn State (11-10, 3-6). Last week: 9. Many teams would pack it in after losing a player like Claxton, but the Lions have had some nice moments over the last couple of weeks, including a competitive game at IU and Saturday's epic upset of MSU.

9. Illinois (10-13, 2-8). Last week: 8. Bruce Weber has spit the bit. He needs to stop feeling sorry for himself about losing Eric Gordon and find a way to win with the team he has. Unfortunately, I expect the Illini to play their game of the year this Thursday.

10. Michigan (5-16, 1-8). Last week: 10. It could be worse, they could be Northwestern.

11. Northwestern (7-12, 0-8). Last week: 11. It's worse. Really, NU had a solid week, beating Texas-Pan American in a non-conference matchup and hanging with IU for most of the game before losing by 12 for the Wildcats' eighth double digit loss in as many Big Ten games.

Indiana 75, Northwestern 63.

Here's the box score. Kelvin Sampson's pregame comments indicated that the coaching staff has noticed what the fans have noticed about IU's play despite the gaudy record. Those of us who were hoping for a 40 point beatdown of Northwestern were disappointed, but the Hoosiers never trailed and pulled away modestly at the end. IU didn't shoot particularly well, especially from three point range (10-30). IU attempted only 22 shots from inside the arc. Northwestern stayed in the game with its three point shooting (10-20). IU dominated the offensive boards, grabbing an astounding 18 of their 30 misses (60 percent). The Hoosiers were similarly dominant on the defensive boards, taking 21 of NU's 26 misses. IU overcame lackluster shooting from the field by shooting 17-21 from the line.

This was a very slow game, about 56 possessions, so IU's total of 11 turnovers is the equivalent of about 13.5 in a normal game. And while it wasn't the therapeutic beatdown it could have been, IU looked better moving the ball than they had in any other recent game and had 16 assists on 24 made baskets.

As for the individuals:

• Eric Gordon's wrist isn't bothering him. Gordon scored 29 points on 14 shots, including 6-10 from three point range.
• DJ White was even better, with 26 points on 11 shots and 13 rebounds. White rebounded more of NU's misses than the Wildcats did.
• Other than White and Gordon, no Hoosier shot well. Armon Bassett was 3-11 from the field, AJ Ratliff was 1-6, Lance Stemler was 1-4.
• Kyle Taber got the start at the 4. In 24 minutes, Taber didn't score, but pulled down four rebounds, blocked a shot, and had one turnover. As best I can recall, these were the first-ever non-garbage time minutes for Taber, a junior walk-on who played at Evansville Central. Taber had played only 40 minutes all season before today and only one minute during the Big Ten season.

The next two road games will determine whether IU will contend for the Big Ten title. Illinois isn't good, but they have been competitive with IU during nearly every game of the Weber era, and the orange clad masses will be whipped into a frenzy by that self-pitying goofball that they call a coach. Ohio State is decent, but a true championship-caliber team should be able to win there. After that, the Hoosiers play three home games in a row against the only other remaining contenders: Wisconsin, Michigan State, and Purdue. This will be the most interesting stretch of the regular season.

The Northwestern game.

Northwestern Wildcats

Current record: 7-11

Big Ten record: 0-7

Current RPI: 208

Current Sagarin: 192

2006-07 record: 11-18 (2-14)

2006-07 RPI: 178

2006-07 Sagarin: 143

Series: IU leads 105-43

Last IU win: 2/28/07 (69-65 in Evanston)

Last Northwestern win: 1/5/05 (72-53 in Evanston)

Last Northwestern win in Bloomington: 1/13/68 (86-81)

TV: 12 pm Sunday, BTN

Pomeroy profile

Blog: Lake the Posts

Northwestern is the only school that IU has defeated more than 100 times (although IU's next win over OSU will be #100). The Wildcats have lost 32 games in a row in Bloomington, and last won there in 1968, when IU played in the fieldhouse next door and Bob Knight was the coach at Army. Since that 1968 home loss, IU has lost to NU only eight times, but the Hoosiers lost three in a row in Evanston from 2003-2005.

After flirting with quasi-respectability for a few years, NU now seems to be as bad as ever. The Wildcats are 0-7 in the Big Ten and Pomeroy gives the Wildcats no better than a 40 percent chance to win any single game in the conference. Western Michigan is the only team with a pulse that NU has defeated. NU has lost all of its Big Ten games (including home games against Penn State and Michigan) by ten or more points, and in their last conference game, NU was nearly doubled up (70-37) by a pretty dreadful Illinois team. In short, if this game shows even a glimmer of competitiveness, its yet more bad news for the Hoosiers.

As always, Northwestern plays slowly, as is typical of the Princeton system that Bill Carmody brought to Northwestern. NU plays at about 63 possessions per game, #304 nationally this is actually NU's fastest team of the last five years). I've said this before, but this slow pace fuels a misperception that NU is a good defensive team. They are not. NU is #293 nationally in defensive efficiency, allowing 1.07 points per possession. The Wildcats do force a good number of turnovers (#26 nationally in defensive turnover percentage, #11 nationally in steal percentage). Otherwise, NU ranks #299 or worse in the following categories: effective field goal percentage, rebounding percentage, 3 point defense, 2 point defense. If short, if NU doesn't steal the ball, the opponent is likely to score. Offensively, the picture is a bit better. NU is #212 nationally at .996 points per possession. The Wildcats, as would be expected, are among the nation's leaders in assist percentage and percentage of three point attempts. Unfortunately, the Wildcats are shooting only 35 percent from three point range (that's really poor for a team that takes 44.2 percent of its shots from behind the arc). Northwestern takes good care of the ball--NU turns the ball over on only 17.9 percent of possessions. On the bad side, Northwestern doesn't prioritize getting to the line or offensive rebounding.

Kevin Coble, who missed NU's first nine games so that he could spend time with his mother, who has breast cancer, has led NU in scoring since his return. Coble shoots 50 percent from two point range and 43 percent from behind the arc. He's also NU's only regular taller than 6-6. It seems likely that DJ White will have a big game. NU's next three leading scorers, Craig Moore, Michael Thompson, and Jason Okrzesik, shoot from 41-43 percent from the field.

Not much to say here. This team is bad by any standard, and IU should win comfortably.

Wisconsin 62, Indiana 49.

Here's the box score, and be sure to check out this nice statistical discussion from the Big Ten Chronicle. It's a tough day for Hoosier fans. While I'm trying not to overreact to a loss on the road to one of the best defensive teams (and best homecourt programs) in the country, the nature of the loss is a bigger deal. Certainly, at the beginning of the season, if one were to have predicted a 16-2 conference record, the game at Wisconsin would have been one of the expected losses. So the L itself isn't the concern. I would guess that many conference champions of the last decade have lost in Madison. Still, other than a five minute stretch in the middle of the second half, the Hoosiers were badly outplayed. As BTC notes, this was a slowdown, about 60 possession game, exactly how Wisconsin likes to play. IU managed only .806 points per possession compared to about 1 per for Wisconsin. Wisconsin is a very good defensive team, one of the very best in the country. But IU's .806 offensive efficiency last night is (see Pomeroy) worse than any other Big Ten team's output against Wisconsin (which includes games against Michigan, Iowa, Northwestern, Penn State, and Illinois). IU has the best scoring guard in the conference and the one of the best offensive big men in the conference. Losing at Wisconsin is acceptable, as is IU's 6-1 conference record. But the last two games are a legitimate cause for concern. The Hoosiers are not playing well.

What really nags at me is that we did not see the Badgers' best game. Wisconsin shot only 34 percent from the field and was 3-20 from three point range. The teams shot nearly identically (poorly) from the field. Wisconsin won mostly because they scored from the free throw line and because they took good care of the ball (only 6 turnovers--IU wasn't awful with 12, a hair under 20 percent). The Badgers outrebounded the Hoosiers by percentage 37 to 31, despite excellent individual performances by DJ White and Jamarcus Ellis in that category.

On the individual front:

• Eric Gordon, playing with a bruised or broken or sprained wrist on his off hand, was awful in the first half but seemed to become more comfortable as the game progressed. He finished with 16 points on 6-14 from the field.
• DJ White was great. White may well be positioning himself to beat out his teammate for Big Ten MVP. White scored 22 points on 13 shots, including 8-10 from the line, and grabbed 17 rebounds. He did turn the ball over four times.
• Can't Armon Bassett have an average game just once? Unfortunately, last night Bad Armon made an appearance: 1-7 from the field, 2 points. He did have two assists and no turnovers, at least.
• Jamarcus Ellis scored only 4 points on 2-6 from the field but managed 13 rebounds, including a tea, high 11 defensive rebounds. His one blocked shot, an out-of-nowhere breakup of a Wisconsin layup, will be a Sportscenter staple for a while.
• Lance Stemler. 1-6 from the field, 3 points. The reality was even uglier than the stat line. Stemler had some open looks. He not only missed those shots, but on about three of the misses looked about as graceful as a senior citizen pulled out of the crowd for a halfcourt shot promotion.

IU will be back on track with a home win against Northwestern on Sunday, but it's fair to be concerned about this team. Perhaps, given the amount of new blood on this team and a second-year coach, expectations were too high. As I said, losing at Wisconsin is no sin, but we will have to play much better to handle tough-but-winnable road games against Illinois and Ohio State. This season isn't over, and IU can weather a loss on the road against a top program. But this team hasn't shown much growth in recent weeks, and that needs to change before we go to the other Assembly Hall next Thursday.

The Wisconsin game.

Wisconsin Badgers

Current record: 16-3

Big Ten record: 6-1

Current RPI: 23

Current Sagarin: 12

2006-07 record: 30-6 (lost to UNLV in second round of NCAA Tournament)

2006-07 RPI: 4

2006-07 Sagarin: 8

Series: IU leads 94-55

Last IU win: 1/31/07 (71-66 in Bloomington)

Last Wisconsin win: 2/8/06 (72-54 in Madison)

Last IU win in Madison: 1/25/98 (69-59)

TV: 9 pm, ESPN

Pomeroy profile

The renaissance of Wisconsin's basketball program in the last decade under the direction of Dick Bennett and Bo Ryan is one of the most remarkable turnarounds in Big Ten history, perhaps second only to Gary Barnett's accomplishments with the Northwestern football program. The Badgers give me hope for IU football. Wisconsin won the fourth-ever NCAA Tournament in 1942 and qualified again in 1947, but did not return to the NCAA field again until 1994. Since that return, the Badgers have become NCAA fixtures. From 1994 to present, the Badgers have played in the NCAA Tournament 11 times in 14 years, including the last nine years. IU's record against the Badgers has coincided with UW's success. Wisconsin beat IU on January 5, 1980 in Madison. IU then won the next 31 in a row, home and away, before losing at Madison on January 4, 1997, 17 years later. Since then, the Badgers and Hoosiers have been nearly even (IU leads 9-8 from 1997 to present). IU won 69-59 at the Kohl Center on January 25, 1998, just a week after the Badgers played their first game in the facility. Since then, IU has lost six in a row in Madison. The Hoosiers have been competitive in three of the games there (most infamously the 62-60 loss in 2005 officiated by Northern Iowa athletic director Rick Hartzell), but IU's only longer road drought in the conference is at MSU.

But, about this year. Wisconsin's 2006-07 probably was its finest since the 1942 NCAA champions, but the Badgers squandered a great regular season performance by losing to UNLV in the second round of the NCAA Tournament. The Badgers lost Alando Tucker and Kammron Taylor and were expected to return to Earth this year, but instead, the Badgers have spent most of the season hanging near the top 10 and near the top of the Big Ten (first place until they lost at Purdue last weekend).

So, how are the Badgers doing it? Defense is the Badgers true area of excellence (#3 nationally at .85 points per possession), although the Badgers' offensive numbers are good as well. Defensively, the Badgers are #12 in effective field goal percentage, #27 in rebounding, #9 in free throw rate (their opponents don't get to the line), and #12 in 2 point field goal percentage(gulp--Better than UConn). The Badgers aren't overwhelmingly good at forcing turnovers or blocking shots, but don't rank below #125 nationally in any defensive category. While not as physically imposing as Connecticut, this is a very good defensive team.

On the offensive side, the Badgers are less overwhelming but still good. They shoot well, rebound well, and shoot over 50 percent from two point range. The Badgers are merely mediocre at protecting the ball and at getting to the line. Perhaps the only positive from IU's stat line against Connecticut was the low rate of turnovers, and Wisconsin may present a good opportunity to make that a trend. Unfortunately, I don't have much time to discuss the individuals, but Marcus Landry and Brian Butch should present a challenge to DJ and company inside, and let's hope the players and staff learned something on Saturday. None of the conference's top five have lost a conference game at home. A win tonight would be the Hoosiers' best road win in years and would put IU in excellent position for the Big Ten title.

Tempo free snapshot.

Busy for now, but via the Big Ten Chronicle, John Gasaway has a nice article with the conference-games-only tempo free stats for the six major conferences. I'll have some thoughts on this later, hopefully. Also, I have added a couple of links to the right. As always, check out the left sidebar for the latest work from the Big Ten Bloggers group, but there are a couple of stat-oriented blogs that aren't in the group to date. First, there is College Basketball Chronotope, formerly known as Hoosier Fun Ball, which has branched out to general college basketball coverage. See also Spartans Weblog, which obviously is written from the MSU perspective.

Big Ten Bloggers poll, week 4.

A clear line has emerged. The top 5 seem likely to stay that way, as do the bottom five, and it remains to be seen what the Gophers will do. Here goes:

1. Purdue (15-5, 6-1). Last week: 3. I don't expect Purdue to remain here, but who else is more deserving right now? Purdue is young, and I would guess that the team that lost to Wofford will show its face again and prevent the Boilers from winning the conference. But for now, Purdue is on top.

2. Wisconsin (16-3, 6-1). Last week: 2. Given my ranking of Purdue, I can't fault the Badgers much for losing at Mackey.

3. Michigan State (18-2, 6-1). Last week: 4. Sorry, Spartans. I'm still punishing you for losing at Iowa.

4. Indiana (17-2, 6-0). Last week: 1. Yes, this is a bit overdramatic, but the Hoosiers need to show me something against a quality team.

5. Ohio State (14-6, 5-2). Last week: 5. Definitely the best of the rest. I still don't have a read on the Buckeyes at all.

6. Minnesota (12-6, 2-4). Last week: 6. The Gophers have played a tough schedule so far, and now begin a stretch in which 6 of their 8 games are against team 7 through 11. If the Gophers are going to make a move, it will be in the next two to three weeks.

7. Iowa (10-11, 3-5). Last week: 7. The Hawks have had a nice run, but they probably won't win again until Michigan comes to town on February 14.

8. Illinois (10-11, 2-6). Last week: 9. The next four games are interesting for the Illini: @Michigan State, Purdue, IU, and @ Minnesota. 3-1 wouldn't surprise me, and neither would 0-4.

9. Penn State (10-9, 2-5). Last week: 8. The Nits are headed for #10, I fear. They haven't been within 15 points of anyone since losing Claxton.

10. Michigan (5-15, 1-7). Last week: 10. They played well in a loss at Wisconsin, and I expect Michigan to pass PSU within the next couple of weeks.

11. Northwestern (6-11, 0-7). Last week: 11. Just hideously awful. Carmody has to be toast, right? NU made a really poor Illinois offense look like North Carolina.