Minnesota 62, Indiana 54.

Playing without Devin Dumes and despite 26 turnovers, IU managed to make a game of this one and even led briefly during the second half. The main distinguishing characteristic of Tubby's first two Minnesota games has been the ability to ugly things up. Of course, this year, the problem is exacerbated, because Minnesota's defensive strengths play into IU's offensive weaknesses. But don't forget last year's win at the Barn. Despite having a much more talented team, IU still managed to turn the ball over (drumroll) 26 times. In last year's game, IU turned the ball over on 35.4 percent of its possession. In the last two seasons, only last night's game (38.6) and the Northeastern loss (36.1) have been worse than the 2008 trip to Minnesota. As painful as it was to watch that spectacle last night, this may become the usual pattern in Minneapolis.

Neither offense looked very good, but the Gophers' shooting was even worse than IU's. The difference is that because of a +7 turnover differential and tremendous offensive rebounding by Minnesota (48.5 percent of their own misses), the Gophers attempted 55 field goals to IU's 37.

Verdell Jones, despite 5 turnovers, was very effective. He scored 18 points on 8 attempts, thanks to 8-8 from the line. Nick Williams scored 15 points on 7 shots because of 5-6 from the line. IU began the game 1-6 from the line but made 15 of its final 16 free throw attempts. Malik Story was fine offensively (9 points on 8 shots, but 5 turnovers). Most significantly, he played 24 minutes, in a road game no less, and committed only one foul. That's progress.

On the downside, Tom Pritchard may be hitting the wall. He hasn't scored in double figures in the last five games. Last night, he didn't score and fouled out in 27 minutes. Ditto Daniel Moore. Again, all of these guys are bearing more burden than any freshman typically has to bear. Still, 5 turnovers and 4 fouls in 13 minutes isn't a good output for a guy who doesn't shoot.

IU plays at home against Illinois on Sunday. It will be the Illini's first trip to Bloomington since last year's game in Champaign, and it will be interesting to see how the crowd greets Bruce Weber and Chester Frazier.

The Daily Gopher's take is here.

IU and UVa agree to home-and-home.

A few weeks ago, South Florida opted out of its scheduled 2009 trip to Bloomington, and now Virginia has become the final piece of the football scheduling puzzle. IU heads to Charlottesville this season, and the Cavaliers come to Bloomington in 2010. No date was announced, and UVa's ACC games all are listed with dates to be determined, but the best guess seems to be that the game will be on October 10.

IU's schedule will be a bit tougher this season. IU still plays Division I-AA Eastern Kentucky, Akron (it's not clear if this game will be at home or on the road), and Western Michigan, but the addition of a BCS conference road game at least will keep us off the "worst schedule" lists. Also, IU drops Michigan State and Minnesota in favor of Michigan and Ohio State.

As for Virginia, former Jets coach Al Groh now is entering his ninth season in Charlottesville. Groh has won 56 percent of his games there, although he hasn't been quite as successful as his predecessor, the underrated George Welsh. Groh has led the Cavaliers to five minor bowl bids in his eight season there. After a Gator Bowl bid in 2007-08, UVa fell back to 5-7 last season. Groh is 2-2 against Big Ten schools, with a bowl win over Minnesota, a home win against Penn State, and road losses to Penn State and Wisconsin.

I have mixed feelings about this game. If IU, at this stage in the program's development, really wanted to play a BCS conference school, I would prefer a team in the Washington State or Iowa State mold. Still, if IU is a legitimate bowl contender, this is a winnable game. If it's not a winnable game, then IU probably isn't going anywhere anyway. Still, if IU is sitting a 5-7 with a 3 point loss at Charlottesville, there may be some second-guessing.

The Minnesota game, take 2.

Minnesota Golden Gophers
Current record: 18-5 (6-5)
Current RPI: 25
Current Sagarin: 32
Current Pomeroy: 48
2007-08 record: 20-14 (8-10), lost to Maryland in first round of NIT
2007-08 RPI: 98
2007-08 Sagarin: 78
2007-08 Pomeroy: 61
Series: IU leads 88-65
Last Minnesota win: 1/25/2009 (67-63 in Bloomington)
Last IU win: 3/5/2008 (69-55 in Bloomington)
Last IU win in Minneapolis: 1/17/2008 (65-60)
Pomeroy scouting report
TV: 9 p.m. tonight, BTN

IU's home loss to Minnesota was one of the most disappointing of the season. Certainly, the Gophers were justifiably favored, but IU was in the game for the duration, but poor judgment in late game possessions and poor free throw shooting doomed the Hoosiers. Minnesota is 6-5 in the Big Ten and remains in the hunt for the NCAA Tournament thanks to a tough schedule and a nice non-conference win against Louisville. Minnesota is on track to get a bid, but certainly doesn't have much margin for error. And losing this game would be an error. Fortunately for the Gophers, the Barn has been a house of horrors for IU. Since IU's last outright Big Ten title in 1993, IU has won at the Barn only three times, including last season. That makes it among the worst road venues for IU in that time frame, behind Michigan State (0 wins since 1991) and tied with Illinois and Wisconsin. The difference, of course, is that those three schools have been very good during most of that period. In other words, better IU teams have lost to worse Minnesota teams up there.

As I noted before the last game, the Gophers present particular problems for IU because their strength's match IU's weaknesses. Minnesota leads the nation in blocked shot percentage, is #9 in steal percentage, and #44 in defensive turnover percentage. In conference play, Minnesota ranks second to Northwestern in turnover percentage and is the by-far leader in block percentage (over 11 percent of attempts, compared to about 3 percent by IU). The Gophers rank #3 in conference games in effective field goal percentage allowed. The Gophers have struggled a bit offensively in conference, shooting only 41.4 percent from the field (#10 in the conference, one spot behind IU) and only 32.5 percent from behind the arc (IU ranks #2 in the conference at 39 percent). Even Blake Hoffarber hasn't been immune. The Gophers have struggled with turnovers, surrendering the ball on 22.6 percent of their possessions, almost as bad as IU's 25 percent.

It's hard to be optimistic about this game. Minnesota is at home, needs a win, and should be able to disrupt IU's offense. And IU will be playing without Devan Dumes, sitting out the first game of his indefinite suspension for throwing some elbows against MSU and in earlier games.

For the Minnesota side, be sure to check out the Daily Gopher. From the Barn has a preview up, and advocates treating it as an exhibition game, essentially. With Dumes out, Minnesota probably could get away with it, but that seems like an odd perspective considering that the game in Bloomington was within a one point margin with 29 seconds remaining.

Inaugural CBS Sports basketball Blogpoll draft ballot.

Here's my draft ballot for the first basketball version of the Blogpoll. I'll revisit later in the week. This is a draft ballot, and therefore comments are welcome and will be considered. My methodology was to rank the teams based on an aggregate of Pomeroy/Sagarin/RPI and adjust as I saw fit.

Rank	Team
1	Connecticut
2	Pittsburgh
3	Duke
4	North Carolina
5	Oklahoma
6	Louisville
7	Clemson
8	Wake Forest
9	Michigan St.
10	Memphis
11	Villanova
12	Missouri
13	Kansas
14	UCLA
15	Illinois
16	Butler
17	Marquette
18	Washington
19	Xavier
20	Ohio St.
21	Purdue
22	Arizona St.
23	Florida St.
24	Gonzaga
25	Syracuse

Michigan State 75, Indiana 47.

After a surprisingly competitive first 22 minutes, Michigan State exploded in the second half, and the final score was much as expected. Here's the box score. Of course, the various issues involving Devan Dumes have dominated postgame coverage. My thoughts, now mute thanks to Tom Crean's decision to suspend Dumes indefinitely, were that sitting him down for a game would be warranted. Some commenters on Inside the Hall and in other places were suggesting anything from a five game suspension to dismissal from the team. I think there's a bit of shellshock among the IU fan base and a tendency to overreact. I don't excuse Dumes's actions, but that would be harsh, and I'm guessing that the indefinite suspension (under which Dumes will continue practicing and traveling with the team) will be in the nature of a game or two.

For Dumes, this game included three incidents, any one of which might have been excused, but which taken as a whole (and perhaps with the elbow to the head of Northwestern's Craig Moore a couple of weeks ago) seem to be a pattern that Crean needed to get under control. Elbow number one against MSU was fairly innocuous. Absent the rest of the game, it would have been forgotten. Later in the game, Dumes clearly elbowed Michigan State's Goran Suton in the crotch. KJ of Spartans Weblog had an in-person view of the play and is incredulous that Ed Hightower didn't toss Dumes out of the game after the video review. Eh. While I don't think there's much doubt that Dumes threw the elbow intentionally (i.e., it wasn't part of his running motion), my best guess is that Hightower concluded that he wasn't sure if Dumes intentionally elbowed Suton where he did or if he was just trying (illegally) to get ahead of Suton. Whatever. I didn't see the final elbow of the game, but ultimately, the totality earned a suspension for Dumes, and hopefully he will learn his lesson.

As for the game, IU played its least efficient offensive game since Maui, scoring only .68 points per possession. IU turned the ball over quite a bit, and although the Hoosiers rebounded respectably on the defensive end, MSU took much better care of the ball (only 10 turnovers to IU's 21) and made six three pointers. MSU shot only 42 percent from the field, but IU shot 31 percent. It was a decent enough defensive performance from IU, but was overwhelmed by the Spartan defense.

No Hoosiers stood out much on offense. Verdell Jones scored 13 points on 8 shots thanks to 8-10 from the line. Matt Roth scored 10 points on 8 shots despite only 2-8 from the field.

Overall, this one was unsurprising. Now, IU heads to Minnesota without its leading scorer and then hosts Illinois on Sunday.

The Michigan State game.

Michigan State Spartans
Current record: 18-4 (8-2)
Current RPI: 4
Current Sagarin: 7
Current Pomeroy: 14
2007-08 record: 27-9, 12-6 (lost to Memphis in NCAA Sweet 16)
2007-08 RPI: 13
2007-08 Sagarin: 15
2007-08 Pomeroy: 15
Series: IU leads 65-44
Last Michigan State win: 3/2/2008 (103-74 in East Lansing)
Last IU win: 2/16/2008 (80-61 in Bloomington)
Last IU win in East Lansing: 2/28/1991 (62-56)
Pomeroy scouting report
TV: 4 pm, ESPN

While conventional wisdom suggests that the Big Ten does not have a great team this season, but absent an inexplicable home losses to Northwestern and Penn State a couple of weeks ago, the Spartans would be in control of the Big Ten race and in the thick of the one-seed discussion. Of course, Penn State and Northwestern are much better than usual, but it would be interesting to know the highest in the Big Ten standings a team has finished in a season in which it lost at home to both Penn State and Northwestern.

I digress because I don't have much to say about this game. It appears to be IU's second most hopeless remaining game, ahead only of the trip to Mackey in a couple of weeks. This team is yet another example of the classic Izzo formula: good shooting plus excellent offensive rebounding equals an incredibly efficient, if not pretty, offense. On the defensive side, the Spartans excel only at rebounding, but that's enough to make MSU's defense very effective. Unlike matchups against the likes of Michigan, Iowa, Northwestern, and even Ohio State and Illinois, MSU seems likely to manhandle the Hoosiers. Currently, the Spartans rank #3 nationally in offensive rebounding, coming up with 42.2 percent of their own misses, and #8 in defensive rebounding percentage, limiting opponents to 27 percent of their misses. MSU doesn't take all that many three pointers, but they choose carefully, ranking #44 nationally with 37.8 percent shooting from behind the arc, and thanks presumably in large part to second chance points, the Spartans shoot over 50 percent from inside the arc. MSU doesn't take particularly good care of the ball and doesn't force many turnovers, but the Spartans play solid field goal defense and rarely allow or miss out on a second chance.

Of course, the subtext in this game is the first conference game between Izzo and his protege, Tom Crean. They previously met in the first round of the NCAA Tournament in 2007, and MSU defeated Marquette. Many IU fans will be wondering if they are watching a preview of future IU teams? To some degree, that seems likely. The one thread that runs through Crean's good and mediocre Marquette teams is excellent offensive rebounding. Marquette under Crean never really excelled on the defensive boards the way Izzo's teams do, but Crean's teams also tended to be more perimeter oriented, with more three point shooting, and also look a bit better on turnovers on both sides of the ball.

The only positive for tomorrow is that Raymar Morgan, MSU's #2 scorer and #2 rebounder, will miss his second consecutive game because of walking pneumonia. Still, the Spartans, with Kalin Lucas, Goran Suton, and a host of others, even a competitive loss by IU would be a surprise.

For the Spartan side of things, be sure to check out this preview from Spartans Weblog, one of the finest basketball-focused blogs around. As KJ notes, IU may be starting to show the Izzo-Crean influence already. In conference games, IU ranks #3 in offensive rebounding percentage and #2 in defensive rebounding percentage, and #3 in three point percentage (41 percent, thanks in large part to great games from Matt Roth and Devan Dumes in the last week.

Cut down the nets! Indiana 68, Iowa 60.

Here's the box score, in all its glory. Going 1-17 won't be any treat, if it happens, but at least the Hoosiers won't enter next season 0-for-2009 or with a losing streak in excess of 20 games. As it was, IU tied, but did not break, the school record losing streak, and can't break the record this season. That's what we'll take as success this season.

As with everything else in 2008-09, this was not easy. IU had a 20 point lead (49-29) with 11:58 remaining, but with a 31-10 run, Iowa pulled to within 3 points with 44 seconds remaining. Fortunately, the Hawkeyes turned the ball over twice in the last 24 seconds, and IU finally made some free throws and preserved the win.

If my math is correct, this was roughly a 59 possession game, so IU's 11 turnover performance isn't as good as it might appear (around 18 percent, still pretty good for this team). Still, after 5 turnovers in the first 4:08, IU turned the ball over only 6 times in the final 36 minutes of the game. IU's failure to make free throws in the second half gave Iowa a chance to win the game, but the Hawkeyes didn't, and I'll take whatever IU gets this season.

As for the individuals:

• Devan Dumes was perhaps even better than Matt Roth was against OSU. Dumes scored 27 points on 8-9 from the field (including 5-5 from behind the arc) and 6-8 from the line.
• Nick Williams scored 14 points on 9 attempts, thanks to 6-6 from the line. He also had 9 rebounds.
• Malik Story scored 9 points on 8 attempts. Unfortunately, Story committed 3 fouls in 15 minutes, which limited his play. Story is averaging a foul every 7.6 minutes, every 6.8 minutes in Big Ten play. Story has quite a bit of potential, but has to find a way to stay on the court.
• Tom Prtichard is struggling a bit. He scored only 2 points and fouled out.
• Fortunately, Kyle Taber picked up the slack with one of his best games as a Hoosier. Seven points on six shots, 8 rebounds, 2 blocks.

Well, that's a relief. We'll leave the 0-fers to Northwestern. IU goes to Michigan State on Saturday, where the Hoosiers haven't won since 1991. Let's worry about that one tomorrow.

Signing day link.

IU is updating the official site as letters come in. So far, as of 9:38, IU has received 14 of its 18 expected letters of intent. No surprises either way so far.

UPDATE: As the link now reflects, this was an uneventful signing day by modern standards. All eighteen commits signed: no additions, no subtractions.

Iowa, take II.

Iowa Hawkeyes
Current record: 12-10 (2-7)
Current RPI: 88
Current Sagarin: 75
Current Pomeroy: 84
2007-08 record: 13-19 (6-12)
2007-08 RPI: 188
2007-08 Sagarin: 149
2007-08 Pomeroy: 116
Series: IU leads 93-69
Last Iowa win: 1/3/2009 (65-60 in Iowa City)
Last IU win: 1/23/2008 (65-43 in Bloomington)
Last Iowa win in Bloomington: 2/11/2006 (70-67)
Pomeroy scouting report
TV: 6:30 pm, BTN

The Hawkeyes are in a much different place than when these two teams met a month ago in IU's Big Ten opener. At the time, Iowa was 10-4 with computer rankings squarely in bubble range. Today, Iowa is 2-7 (with home wins over IU and struggling Wisconsin) and probably is more realistically concerned with making the NIT. As for the Hoosiers, IU simply has to win this game. Has to has to has to. In the last game, IU and Iowa were fairly evenly matched, but Iowa's Cyrus Tate had a huge game, not unlike Ralph Sampson, and just about every big man who sees the chance.

Pomeroy says that this is IU's best remaining chance to win, a whopping 25 percent chance. I could spend lots of time breaking down the matchups, but this season is beyond that right now. It's just a must-win.

Signing day eve.

Those who have read this blog for a while know that I'm not much of a recruiting follower. For basketball, I can keep track to some degree, but for football, the sheer number of players recruited as well as the greater difficulty in evaluating football players makes it a mind-numbing exercise for me. That said, Wednesday's signing day looks to be IU's best in years. I've been quite critical of Bill Lynch and the performance of the 2008 Hoosiers, so it's only fair to note that despite the on-field downturn, Lynch managed to hold together a solid recruiting class. While IU did not land any of the highly coveted four star or five star recruits, 15 of IU's 18 recruits are three star recruits, according to Rivals.com. This doesn't put IU in the upper echelon (IU's class currently ranks #58 nationally and ninth in the big Ten, ahead of Iowa and Purdue), but is a dramatic improvement over IU's recent classes. Since 2002 (as far back as the Rivals ratings go,) IU's best haul previously was 7 three star recruits in 2003. In every other season, the number has been between three and five. IU fans often joke that the best way for a three star recruit to turn into a two star is to commit to Indiana, so it is to this staff's credit that this class looks so good on paper.

Also, there is no doubt that IU is employing a close to home philosophy. Of IU's 18 commits, 17 are from Indiana, Ohio, Illinois, or Michigan. The 18th is from Pennsylvania, within the Big Ten footprint. It will be interesting to see how IU under Lynch and Purdue, under new coach Danny Hope, compete both on the field and on the recruiting trail. From the looks of Purdue's class, they may not be moving in the same circles. Of Purdue's recruits, 13 are from Florida, none from Indiana, and a single recruit from Kentucky is the only Boiler commit who is from a state that is even contiguous to Indiana.

I don't mean to take this post in a "whose class is better" direction. IU's class is better in terms of star rankings, but there is such a glut of talent in places like Florida, Georgia, and Texas that many talented players are under the radar, and obviously Hope hopes that he has found those types of players. Still, I think Purdue's philosophy is good for IU. One of IU's great disadvantages has been being the #3 football school in a relatively small state. If Purdue simply declines to compete for Indiana kids, leaving IU as the first caller for good players who aren't quite good enough to get offers from Notre Dame, Michigan, Ohio State, etc., that's good. Again, that's not to say that one philosophy or the other is better. But it's long been conventional wisdom that it's tough for IU and Purdue to be good at the same time. In the last 25 years, Purdue was mostly horrible during the Mallory era, and IU was mostly horrible during the Tiller era. If Purdue is going to focus so heavily on outside recruits, that makes it more likely in my mind that both teams could be good at the same time.

Ohio State 93, Indiana 81.

Despite one of the great individual shooting performances in IU history, 9 three pointers by freshman Matt Roth, IU couldn't outscore the Buckeyes, who shot 63 percent for the game and 73 percent in the second half. Here's the box score. The IU offense was very effective. IU's 1.15 points per possession is the best IU has done against Division I competition this season. The turnover percentage of 18.1 was IU's lowest of the Big Ten season. Unfortunately, IU's defensive performance was the worst of the season across the board. Really, Roth's shooting masked a 37% shooting percentage for the team, but kept the Hoosiers in the game for about 30 of its 40 minutes.

There's not much more to say about this game. I'm happy to have seen Roth show his excellent shooting ability, and there's no doubt in my mind, as I have said before, that once IU's overall talent level increases, Roth will be a key contributor. Next, IU faces Iowa, the Hoosiers' best remaining chance for a win. We shall see.

Ohio State, Round II.

Ohio State Buckeyes

Current record: 14-5 (4-4)

Current RPI: 22

Current Sagarin: 28

Current Pomeroy: 48

2007-08 record: 24-13 (10-8) (won NIT)

2007-08 RPI: 46

2007-08 Sagarin: 21
2007-08 Pomeroy: 29

Series: IU leads 101-72

Last Ohio State win: 1/13/2009 (77-53 in Columbus)

Last IU win: 2/26/2008 (72-69 in Bloomington)

Last OSU win in Bloomington: 2/21/2004 (59-56)

Pomeroy scouting report

TV: 4 pm, ESPN2

IU plays its first repeat customer of the Big Ten season this afternoon. IU's loss in Columbus, along with the loss at Illinois, was one of IU's two completely non-competitive games of the seven Big Ten losses. After a strong nonconference season, OSU has gone 4-4 in the Big Ten, with a 1-3 road record and a home loss to Michigan State. Pomeroy projects OSU to finish 9-9 in the conference, so a loss today could lead to some uneasiness in Columbus about the Buckeyes' NCAA prospects. In the first IU-OSU game of the season, the Buckeyes, especially Jon Diebler, ended the game early by making 11 three pointers in the first half.

The Buckeye defense, a strength of the team early in the season, has fallen back to the pack a bit, particularly in Big Ten road games. Although OSU still ranks #34 nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency, the Buckeyes' 1.02 points per possession allowed in conference games is middle-of the-pack (IU, of course, is comfortably worst in both offensive and defensive efficiency. Still, this promises to be a struggle.

See Eleven Warriors for the OSU perspective.

Northwestern 77, Indiana 75.

For all of this team’s flaws, the Hoosiers have been competitive in five of seven Big Ten games, but still don’t have a win to show for it. Wednesday night’s loss in Evanston didn’t have the sting of the blown 20 point lead against Michigan, but would have been much easier to take if IU had at least been able to take a potential tying or winning shot instead of committing the 22nd turnover of the night. Here’s the box score. This was a 69 possession game, practically frenetic for Northwestern, but the two teams combined for 41 turnovers, which shortened quite a few possessions for each team. That is a positive. As I noted in the preview, NU takes care of the ball very well, so it is to IU's credit that the Wildcats struggled to take care of the ball. NU's turnover percentage of 27.7% was its worst of the Big Ten season. Unfortunately, IU's 32% was its worst of the Big Ten season. Ultimately, it was a very evenly matched game. Both teams shot 12-23 from behind the arc. NU made three more field goals than IU. IU turned the ball over a touch more. IU made a few more free throws and won the rebounding battle (as does everyone against Northwestern). Northwestern played great defense on the final inbounds play, IU panicked a bit, and that was that.

While Tom Crean and his team don't want to consider moral victories, it is to Crean's immense credit that this team continues to fight, both in every game and when games seem out of reach, such as when Northwestern took a 9 point lead in the second half. Although obviously disappointed to lose, Crean offered his team a round of applause as they came off the court Wednesday night.

The individuals:

• Devan Dumes was great. 26 points on 16 attempts, 6-10 from behind the arc. Yes, he probably should have been ejected for the forearm to the head of Craig Moore. I don't really understand how the officials saw enough for a technical but not enough for the flagrant, but I won't complain. This has been the week of the cheap shot. Michigan's Zack Novak was ejected Wednesday night for an elbow to the head of an OSU player, and Wisconsin's Joe Krabbenhoft somehow didn't even get called for a foul when he added an obvious (and unnecessary) forearm to what should have been a beautiful screen.
  
• Matt Roth had his biggest impact of the season, scoring 12 points on 4-7 from behind the arc.
• Verdell Jones is progressing. He scored 14 points on 7 attempts, but gave back some of that efficiency by turning the ball over 7 times.
  
• Malik Story managed 6 points on 0-2 from the field, thanks to a 6-6 performance from the line.
  
• Tom Pritchard scored only 7 points, but had 10 rebounds, four offensive.

Again, IU fans can take some solace in the ability of this team to compete with 5 of 7 Big Ten foes to this point. Still, with two games against MSU, road trips to Purdue, Minnesota, and Penn State, a home game against Illinois, and two games against Wisconsin, the opportunities for wins are dwindling. Just one, to avoid heading into the offseason with a 21 game losing streak, would be nice, although this team's reward isn't going to come in 2008-09. We are going to have one seasoned group of sophomores next year, at least.

Be sure to check out postgame discussion here and here at Lake the Posts, and at Welsh-Ryan Ramblings.

The Northwestern game.

Northwestern Wildcats
Current record: 10-7 (2-5)
Current RPI: 41
Current Sagarin: 43
Current Pomeroy: 46
2007-08 record: 8-21 (1-17)
2007-08 RPI: 191
2007-08 Sagarin: 190
2007-08 Pomeroy: 158
Series: IU leads 107-43
Last Northwestern win: 1/5/2005 (73-52 in Evanston)
Last IU win: 2/23/2008 (85-82 in Evanston)
Pomeroy scouting report
TV: 8:30 tonight, BTN

Tonight, IU tries once again for its first Big Ten win, and Northwestern tries to preserve its best NCAA Tournament hopes in memory (ever?). The Wildcats' record is unimpressive, but they have played a tough conference schedule to date, and their computer rankings suggest that they will be in bubble range if they win out at home and perhaps steal a road game (most likely in Bloomington, where NU hasn't won since 1968). A win tonight probably is crucial to Northwestern's postseason hopes. While IU has dominated the overall series and won 26 in a row against Northwestern from 1988 to 2003, NU has been much better at home, winning three of the last five in Evanston.

As always, NU is one of the slowest-paced teams in the country. Their offense is the same as it has been under Bill Carmody: NU shoots well, particularly from behind the arc (38 percent), takes care of the ball (17.6 %, #23), doesn't rebound well on either side of the ball. It's striking just how similar NU's tempo-free numbers look across good seasons and bad. The main distinction between this season and last season for NU is on the defensive side of the ball. NU is always good at forcing turnovers, and this season is no exception (25% defensive TO percentage, #21 nationally). The main difference this year has been 2 point field goal percentage. NU still allows its opponents to make 35 percent of their three point shots, but NU is holding opponents to 43.8 percent from two point range, good enough for #46 nationally.

Northwestern, like many slow paced teams (including Wisconsin) is always labeled as a good defensive team by those who haven't seen the tempo-free light. In most seasons under Carmody, the defense has lagged the offense. For once, however, the label fits this year. Even without any rebounding to speak of, NU's 47% effective field goal percentage and 25 percent turnover percentage lead to an adjusted offensive efficiency that ranks NU #35 nationally.

In previous weeks, I have noted that IU is better equipped to compete with perimeter-oriented teams than with teams with a strong inside presence. That means that on paper, IU should be competitive, relative to this season, with NU. The problem with that is that despite a very three pointer-oriented offense, NU is huge. Five of NU's top seven scorers, including leading scorer and three point threat Kevin Coble, are 6-8 or taller. Like Ohio State's Jon Diebler did, I worry that NU is going to get a bunch of easy three point looks.

Pomeroy gives IU a 4 percent chance of winning this game. That's hard to accept at an area where IU has lost only 6 times in the last 37 years. Still, IU made some progress against Minnesota and hopefully can continue that trend and hope for some cold shooting by the Wildcats.

Be sure to check out NU's Chamber of Commerce, Lake the Posts, for coverage.

Minnesota 67, IU 63.

The box score. IU was competitive for the fourth time in six Big Ten games, but has nothing but an 0-6 record to show for it. IU stayed with Minnesota all day, despite allowing Ralph Sampson (it seemed somehow appropriate to hear that last name repeated over and over) to run wild, would have been in a great position to win the game but for poor free throw shooting and some poor decision-making down the stretch. IU was only 11-21 from the line, including 7-15 in the second half. IU led for most of the first half, and while Minnesota stretched its lead to 7 on a couple of occasions in the second half, IU stayed close. I thought the key sequence was with 4:32 remaining. IU had pulled to within one point at 58-57, and rebounded a Minnesota miss. Malik Story, instead of pulling up, committed a charge on a drive to the basket. IU got to within one again in the final minute, but never took the lead in the second half. I don’t mean to pick on Story. Freshmen who ordinarily wouldn’t be put in such situations are forced to do so for this team.

Oh well. On to Northwestern. NU won at Michigan State last week, but at 2-5 needs to make a move if the Wildcats are to make their first NCAA Tournament appearance. It would be a tough road win.

The Minnesota game.

Minnesota Golden Gophers
Current record: 16-3 (4-3)
Current RPI: 30
Current Sagarin: 36
Current Pomeroy: 49
2007-08 record: 20-14 (8-10), lost to Maryland in first round of NIT
2007-08 RPI: 98
2007-08 Sagarin: 78
2007-08 Pomeroy: 61
Series: IU leads 88-64
Last Minnesota win: 3/14/2008 (59-58 in BTT quarterfinals, Indianapolis)
Last IU win: 3/5/2008 (69-55 in Bloomington)
Last Minnesota win in Bloomington: 2/18/2004 (74-71)
Pomeroy scouting report
TV: noon Sunday, BTN

There was a time (well, as recently as last year) that I really dreaded these bye weeks, but I have to admit that the last week has been a relief. IU resumes Big Ten play at noon on Sunday against Minnesota, currently ranked #18 in the AP poll but having lost at Northwestern and at home to Purdue. I don't particularly relish the idea of playing a desperate Minnesota team. The Gophers, if they wish to remain in the Big Ten title hunt, cannot lose to IU.

The Gophers are in a great position to return to the NCAA Tournament, thanks to a 12-0 non-conference schedule, including a signature win over Louisville. The Gophers rank in the top 70 in both offensive and defensive efficiency, thanks mostly to strong shooting and offensive rebounding. The Gophers don't take particularly good care of the ball: they have a turnover percentage of 21.1 (#195) and steal percentage of 11.2 (#277). On the defensive end, the Gophers play good field goal defense, especially inside the arc, but do not rebound well. Particularly bad news for the Hoosiers: Minnesota leads the nation in shot block percentage, refunding an incredible 20.5 percent of opponents' field goal attempts. IU, of course, ranks #342 nationally with 14.4 percent of its attempts blocked. What's the over under on shot clock violations? The Gophers also are among the nation's leaders in forcing turnovers (23.9%, #34) and steals (13.9%, #7). To a significant degree, IU's worst stats are in Minnesota's best categories. Still, the Gopher defense has shown some vulnerability in the last two losses to Northwestern and Purdue. Northwestern shot 9-21 from behind the arc and Purdue was 6-11 last night.

Lawrence Westbrook is Minnesota's only doubvle-figure scorer at 13.9 points per game. Damien Johnson, Al Nolen, and Blake Hoffarber also contribute. Hoffarber is the Gophers' best three point shooter, and IU fans will remember him for the disappointing but probably merciful game-winner that he hit against IU in last season's Big Ten Tournament.

For all of IU's flaws, the Hoosiers have been mostly competitive in both conference home games, the excruciating loss to Michigan and last weekend's loss to Penn State. Minnesota needs a win, but IU can at least hope that the Gopher's poor play continues.

Big game for women's team tonight.

UPDATE: IU wins 71-57. While IU has won at Mackey and in the Big Ten Tournament, this was the Hoosiers' first home win against Purdue since 1998. This puts IU in sole possession of first place in the conference at 6-1, at least until 5-1 Ohio State plays next.

While I won't pretend to follow women's basketball closely, it's at least worth noting that while the men's team is having its worst season in memory, the women are having their best season in memory. IU is 11-2 and is 5-1 in the Big Ten, good enough for a three-way first place tie with Ohio State and Purdue. The Hoosiers are not ranked in either of the polls at the moment, but currently stand at #15 in the RPI and #18 in the Sagarin ratings. IU plays Purdue at Assembly Hall tonight. As a rivalry, it's always a big game. IU would gain legitimacy as a win, but I'm sure Purdue isn't anxious to surrender its historical upper hand in this series. One of the nice benefits to the Big Ten Network is that a game like this is actually televised.

Penn State 65, Indiana 55.

Sigh. IU was more competitive in this one than in the last two games, and certainly didn't quit, but IU never really threatened in this one. And so goes IU's 15-game homecourt winning streak against Penn State, leaving Northwestern as the only Big Ten team that has never won at Assembly Hall (or any other Bloomington venue since 1968). While Penn State's offensive numbers were more impressive than its defense before this game, some combination of PSU's defense and IU's anemic offense accounted for this loss. Penn State didn't shoot or rebound all that well, although the Lions turned the ball over only 8 times in a 64 possession game as opposed to 15 for IU. Penn State's main offensive accomplishment was getting to the line. On the defensive side, this was just another in a long line of anemic offensive performances for IU (.85 points per possession). Matt Roth (2-3) and Brett Finkelmeier (1-1) were the only Hoosiers who shot over 50 percent from the field, and the team overall shot 37 percent and 20 percent from behind the arc.

Of all of the indignities of this season, this one might have been the toughest. By that I mean no disrespect to Penn State, a much improved team with a shot at making the tournament. Still, entering the game, this appeared to be IU's best chance at a conference win, and while IU was by no means embarrassed, Penn State plainly was the better team throughout, even on the road. This one was tough to swallow because before Saturday, I really hadn't accepted 0-18 as a reasonable possibility. It is.

The Penn State game: playing for pride.

Penn State Nittany Lions
Current record: 13-5 (2-3)
Current RPI: 86
Current Sagarin: 72
Current Pomeroy: 76
2007-08 record: 15-16 (7-11)
2007-08 RPI: 155
2007-08 Sagarin: 115
2007-08 Pomeroy: 108
Series: IU leads 27-4 (25-4 since Penn State joined the Big Ten in 1992-93)
Last Penn State win: 3/9/2008 (68-64 in OT, University Park)
Last IU win: 1/20/2008 (81-65 in Bloomington)
Last Penn State win in Bloomington: never
Pomeroy scouting report
TV: 6 pm, BTN

As I have said at various points, it was obvious before the season that an invitation to the NCAA Tournament was beyond this team's reach. It became obvious early in the season that a winning season was beyond this team's reach. Now, most IU fans would kill for a handful of Big Ten wins. IU has been competitive in two of its conference games, most painfully the Michigan game and the blown 20 point lead. The other two have been blowouts. Now, IU faces an improved Penn State team. The numbers above make clear that the Nittany Lions have some work to do if they want to contend for a NCAA bid, but it seems that every Big Ten team except for IU can make the case that it is still in the hunt. According to Pomeroy, tomorrow's game presents IU's best chance for a win. Pomeroy gives IU a 22 percent chance to win this game, 5 points better than IU's 17 percent odds at home against Iowa. So, if there are any important games this season, this is one of them.

The Nittany Lions have played well at home this season, upsetting Purdue and nearly upsetting Michigan State. They are 2-2 in true road games, with wins at Penn and Georgia Tech and with losses at Wisconsin and Minnesota.

Penn State play what quickly seems to be becoming a predominant Big Ten style: like Iowa, Michigan, and Ohio State, Penn State plays a slow-paced game and has an efficient offense premised on taking care of the ball and shooting well from three point range. Penn State ranks #42 in offensive efficiency (1.10) #7 in offensive turnover percentage (16.8%), #27 in three point shooting percentage (38%), and #56 in percentage of points generated by three pointers. On the defensive side, Penn State is just above the mean, surrendering .99 points per possession. The rebound well defensively, ranking #9 nationally by allowing only 26.9 percent offensive rebounding, but clearly this rebounding focus to some extend explains below average numbers in steals, blocks, and turnovers. IU has so many deficiencies that it's hard to say which is the worst, but at the very least, IU should have better luck taking care of the ball against this Penn State team, but better shoot well. Penn State rebounds well without being a particularly tall team.

As for the individuals, sophomore guard Taylor Battle leads the way with 18.9 points per game and 41 percent three point shooting. Jamelle Cornley averages 14.6 points and shoots over 50 percent from the field, and Stanley Pringle averages 14.2 points per game and 50 percent (!) from behind the arc. Given IU's perimeter defense...well, you figure it out. Cross your fingers and hope they have a first half like Michigan did. That's what it has come to.

Ohio State 77, Indiana 53.

Here are the stats. IU competed for most of the second half, and actually managed to pull within 13 points at one point, but like all too many of IU's games this season and for the second game in a row, it was over by the first media timeout. IU's perimeter defense continues to be a problem, and Ohio State made 11 three pointers in the first half, accounting for 75 percent of their scoring. Jon Diebler made 5 of those three pointers. I noted in the preview that Diebler's height and shooting ability could prove a deadly combination. Certainly, some of those shots were wide open, but at least a couple were "contested" by a much shorter IU player. IU's .81 points per possession will win very few games, and the 24.8 turnover percentage, while not awful by this team's standards, continues to be a problem. Verdell Jones looked more comfortable attacking the basket than he ever has, but accounted for five of those turnovers. IU did rebound well (38 percent on the offensive end to 21 percent by OSU), but the Buckeyes made so many three pointers that it didn't matter. Other random thoughts:

• Dallas Lauderdale looks old enough to be Greg Oden's father.
• Tom Prtichard was fairly effective, scoring 16 points on 14 shots and grabbing 11 rebounds.
  
• Devan Dumes struggled in his return from an ankles injury (is it a return if he didn't miss a game), shooting 3-12 from the field and finishing with 8 points.
  
• Broderick Lewis, a freshman walk-on from Lafayette, received his first meaningful minutes, and played reasonably well. He didn't have an official field goal attempt, but shot 3-4 from the line and had two rebounds and no turnovers. Lewis is 6-6 and was a state finalist in the long jump in high school. He had the reputation of not being a particularly skilled basketball player, but hopefully he will improve and continue to contribute.
• Although he is a graduate of Lafayette Jeff, his hometown is listed as "West Lafayette." IU has Verdell Jones from Champaign, and will have Jordan Hulls from Bloomington next year, which is a fair representation of Big Ten college towns.
  

Check out the Buckeye perspective here and here.

Well, as I said, IU at least has some conceivably winnable games in the future, although IU will be a decided underdog in all three. In my mind, Saturday is a major "pride game" for this program. This team is going to finish with IU's worst record in generations, so there won't be much opportunity for major milestones. But Penn State has never won at Assembly Hall. Continuing that streak, while not banner-worthy, could be some sort of source of pride for this team.