Monday, September 22, 2008

Blogpoll draft ballot, week 4.

Here's the first draft of the ballot I will be submitting. Games watched: CMU-Purdue, ND-Michigan State, IU-Ball State.

RankTeamDelta
1Southern Cal--
2Georgia--
3LSU--
4Florida--
5Texas--
6Oklahoma--
7Missouri--
8Alabama--
9Texas Tech--
10Wisconsin--
11Brigham Young 3
12South Florida 1
13Oklahoma State 3
14Penn State 3
15Wake Forest 4
16Auburn 5
17Kansas 1
18Clemson 2
19Illinois 2
20Utah 2
21Oregon 6
22Ohio State 2
23Vanderbilt 2
24Boise State 2
25East Carolina 13

Dropped Out: Arizona State (#23).

I felt bad about dropping Auburn so far, but they did lose at home, and I could quite justify putting them ahead of the others there. Obviously, they will have the opportunity to move up. Oklahoma State may be overranked, but they play Texas, TT, Oklahoma, and Mizzou (not in a row). They will either earn it or they will drop. Boise is the only newcomer to the poll.
I thought about Ball State, and will keep an eye on the Cardinals. After playing tough non-conference schedules for so long, they picked the wrong year to dumb it down.

Sunday, September 21, 2008

Suckfest 2008: Ball State 42, Indiana 20.

42-20, and it wasn't that close. That's what surprised me the most about yesterday's game. As I said earlier in the week, I knew that IU could lose. I knew that Ball State could score a lot of points. I knew that neither IU's offense nor defense had been tested against a quality opponent. As I also made clear, Ball State's long losing streak against the Big Ten and other BCS conferences seemed due to end, as did IU's long and anomalous winning streak against the MAC. I can live with the loss, but the manner of the loss is tough to swallow. Flukes happen, but this wasn't a fluke. Ball State is a significantly better team than IU. Significantly, and in every aspect of the game. They took whatever they wanted, and IU never dictated the game offensively or defensively, other than for one drive in the second half which ended with missed field goal. Is Greg Middleton still alive? Reminiscent of Antwaan Randle El against top tier Big Ten opponents, IU's offense was limited to scrambles, designed or improvised after a glance downfield, by Kellen Lewis.
Speaking of Lewis, his decision to throw into traffic late in the second half, giving Ball State a hand-delivered defensive touchdown, was inexcusable for a quarterback who has started around 25 games. Geno Johnson's ten-second-after-the-play-sissy-slap of a Ball State player probably saved a Cardinal drive that put early points on the board. On the other side of the field, one one play, Ball State lost its best player and surrendered a defensive touchdown, but after the long break BSU didn't blink. It's unbelievable that IU couldn't do any better than that after a bye week.
One one level, I and most IU fans knew that this Hoosier team was unproven, with James Hardy gone on the offensive side and without Tracy Porter and Leslie Majors on the defensive side (obviously those guys really were missed against Ball State). On the other hand, I think most suspected that IU would be about on par with last year's team, at least in terms of record. Now, we have to face the possibility that after the fun of last year and all the promise it presented, we could be taking a huge step back, or at least hitting a big pothole. We can't beat a single Big Ten opponent with an effort like the Hoosiers produced last night. Still, the coaches are professionals, they must have seen what we all see, and hopefully they can find a way to compete with a MSU team that made us look silly last year.
Rant over. Here's the box score. Highlights and lowlights:
  • Miquale Lewis was outstanding, particularly in the second half. IU had its moments against the rushing attack early, but BSU always responded with a long completion.
  • Nate Davis is going to be a starting QB in the NFL. While not mobile, his ability to evade the rush is impressive. His numbers (16-25, 239) weren't eye-popping, but they don't capture how well he played.
  • It was a damn shame that Dante Love suffered what appears to be a serious, career-threatening injury. I don't mean to make light of it when I say that if told before the game that such a thing would happen, I wouldn't have thought it possible that Ball State would win by 22.
  • Any Ball State fan who claims that Adkins's hit was dirty or intentional deserves every "teacher's college" barb that comes his way.
  • IU's three running backs all averaged between 4.2 and 4.7 yards per carry, but Kellen Lewis carried the ball more often (25 times) than the running backs combined (22).
  • Lewis's passing: 11-25, 159, 2 INT.
  • Greg Middleton: 2 tackles, no sacks; Jammie Kirlew: 4 tackles, no sacks.

There's no point in belaboring it. We got whipped by a program that had never beat us before. Nothing that can be done. Big Ten teams have overcome losses like this before, but again, this wasn't a game where everything went wrong and all the bounces went against us. This one could have been worse. Still, we're 0-0 in the conference and will have our opportunities to figure it out. Last season, after a disappointing loss to Illinois, we rebounded with a road upset of Iowa. Let's hope the coaches can find a way out.

First half thoughts.

No liveblog for me tonight, but here are some random halftime thoughts:
  • Man, I hope Dante Love is okay. When I saw the play in real time, I figured maybe he had the wind knocked out of him, but obviously it was worse. I hope to see him playing on Sundays next year, and hopefully on some more Saturdays this year.
  • Lots of Kellen Lewis. Obviously, we need to do what is necessary to win any given game, but this all-Kellen offense isn't a positive development and won't help us down the road.
  • It's amazing what Ball State has done offensively even without good field position. Starr has kicked it into the end zone for the most part.
  • Just to contradict myself a bit, the advantage of forcing BSU or any other defense to account for Lewis is that it opens things up for others, hence nice runs by Payton and McCray late in the second quarter.
  • Some really poor decisions by supposed team leaders. The personal foul by Geno Johnson in the first quarter was awful, as was Lewis's late interception. A guy with Kellen's experience has to realize that IU is getting the ball in the second half.
  • Ball State has dominated the game statistically, and has the lead in net offense 302-197. Ball State is average 7.8 yards per play from scrimmage to IU's 5.7.

Friday, September 19, 2008

Final thoughts.

As the game approaches, I'm not sure there is much else to say. The line has moved from IU -3.5 to IU -3, which suggests that the money is moving toward Ball State. ESPN's Adam Rittenberg picks Ball State to win 45-42. For the record, I was not one of the "furious Hoosiers fans" who complained about Rittenberg's pick, although I think that what he says about IU's fate resting with its defense is at least as true of Ball State's, which allowed over 10 yards per play to IU in the game last November. IU certainly has some question marks. Has the defense's apparent improvement been solely a function of the schedule? How will IU's offense perform withoout James Hardy against a quality opponent? But IU, against a weak schedule, is allowing 215 yards per game, near the top of Division I-A. Ball State is averaging 385 yards of offense allowed, against a better but not overwhelming schedule. This is a quite loseable game for IU, but I still am not sold on Ball State's defense. Other media picks:
  • Peter Schrager of Fox Sports takes the "Fighting Whitlocks."
  • Notre Dame blog Rakes of Mallow says that "it wouldn't be football season if Indiana was[n't] blowing an early game against a MAC team." Yeah, if every year were 1977. He promptly corrected, somewhat. "I probably should have said MAC struggles." No, probably not. Other than the 24-23 win at Ball State in 2006, none of the games have been nailbiters. IU has won all of the others by at least a touchdown.
  • ESPN's independent/others blogger, Graham Watson, picks Ball State 31-24.
  • Al Lesar of the South Bend Tribune picks IU 27-24.

The Ball State picks don't bother me. As I have mentioned many times, I think that the reflexive upset picks motivate IU in these games. Certainly, this 2008 Ball State team is one of the best MAC teams IU has played in the last 30 years

Thursday, September 18, 2008

Q&A with Ball State blog "Over the Pylon."

Earlier this week, I exchanged some questions about this week's game with Over the Pylon, a well-written blog that mostly covers Ball State but also Kentucky and college football at large. OTP's answers to my questions are below, and my answers to his questions are here. My questions are in crimson, OTP's answers are in red.
1. Since you asked me about Lynch, I'll ask you the same: why did he fail at Ball State? Was it merely his coaching ability, or did other issues such as facilities and recruiting restrictions play a role?
As a Kentucky fan, sorry to the IU faithful about that, I compare Lynch to Tubby Smith. Both fantastic men. Great advocates for the school. Great workers and stewards for the community and the school. But lousy coaches, and they both played their sons way more than they should have. I think some fans look at Lynch, compare him to Hoke, and walk away thinking he isn't a good coach. I don't think that's a fair comparison. Hoke and Lynch for all purposes coached at two very different schools, though both had the name "Ball State".It was Lynch's first stop as a head coach. He had no major experience, save for jobs at Butler as a head coach and assistant jobs at Ball State and Indiana. He took over for Paul Schudel, who guided BSU to its first ever 1A Bowl game and two MAC titles. Lynch's first two seasons there were his most successful (hello Tubby) and after a Las Vegas Bowl appearance in 1996, the bottom fell out as his recruits began to fill into the roster. Of course, that isn't entirely his fault, as at the time, there was no decent stadium, no decent football facilities, no MAC TV coverage, etc. So I'm sure it was tough. Hoke has all of that, and he is reaping the benefits with good recruiting classes and more talent, which results in more wins on the field.The bottom line is that each year in Muncie, Lynch and the team got a bit worse. When the firing appeared inevitable in 2002, Lynch rallied the troops behind emotion and his farewell tour and salvaged a 6-6 season. Lynch excels at rallying the troops around emotional causes and issues, which worked well for IU last year. Lynch will ultimately get a bit worse and worse. The talent level at IU may make that descent not as quick or as dramatic, but it will happen sooner rather than later.

2. Tell me about Sean Baker. He came out of nowhere to have one of the most dominant games in recent memory, with three interceptions and a fumble return for a TD. Did you expect great things out of this guy so soon?
Sean Baker is someone that most of us who follow the program thought Canfield had the potential to be a good athlete all over the field. He played both ways in high school, and comes from Canfield, OH. Hoke has shown tremendous recruiting prowess in the Buckeye State, but to say anyone saw Baker contributing this much this soon would be a stretch. Keep in mind, he doesn't even start.

3. No points for creativity. Nate Davis's strengths are well known. Does he have any weaknesses? What sort of teams have caused him the most trouble?
Nate is probably the best player to walk through Ball State's football program (apologies to Jason Whitlock). His strenghts are well known to people not close to the program, but to those of us who follow the Cards, his weaknesses are just as obvious. Nate, though exceptionally accurate, makes some questionable decisions at times. He's Farve-ian in his ability to believe that he can squeeze a pass into a one foot square within triple coverage. He's getting better, but there have been flashes this season, the Navy game for example, where Nate throws to a bracketed receiver and results in an INT. Against Navy and Northeastern... not so much of a big deal. Against Indiana... big deal.

4. I certainly don't mean to rub any salt in the wounds, but Ball State has had some close calls, particularly in recent years, against teams from BCS conferences. Which loss bothers you the most, and why?
Personally, I would say the Michigan game. Sure, they were down and not the Michigan team of year's past, but that one stung. More so by the fact that I have numerous friends who are Michigan fans, I grew up with Indiana fans who hated Michigan, etc. So that one left sort of a funky taste, more so because of who it was against. To be honest, the games in recent years like Michigan, Nebraska, Boston College, Illinois, Indiana in 06 all leave a bitter taste. Because the lion's share of close games we've lost against major teams are games where the win was there for the taking, and Ball State beat themselves. It's like watching a Bill Curry Kentucky team. Only with less talent. And that makes me a not so happy camper.

5. As you consider this matchup, which Hoosiers keep you awake at night?
Well, the easy answer is Kellen Lewis. But to be truthful, the offenses themselves are equally impressive and potent, but I do think the team with the more successful running back will ultimately win this game. As MiQuale Lewis or Marcus Thigpen go, so go their teams.Realistically though, this is a matchup that will come down to the play of the lines, and in a broader perspective, which defense steps up their play. Each team, I believe, has significant potential to be torched defensively, and both teams have an offense capable of doing the torching. So defensively, Nick Polk worries me. He's a safety with wide reciever speed, who should be able to keep up with Darius Hill and Dante Love.How we gameplan to attack Chris Adkins, a freshman at corner, will also be a heavy factor in winning this game. His height concerns me, but his lack of experience makes me salavate. Additionally, DEs Jammie Kirlew and Greg Middleton will mean the difference for BSU's offensive explosiveness. If they can get pressure on Davis, which no team has so far, it could be a long day for the Cardinals. If Davis has the time to sit back, set up, and pick his spots, then it's going to be a long day for the Hoosiers.
Thanks, Alan. Again, my answers can be found here.

Tuesday, September 16, 2008

Blogpoll ballot, week 3.

RankTeamDelta
1Southern Cal--
2Georgia--
3LSU--
4Florida--
5Texas--
6Oklahoma--
7Missouri--
8Alabama--
9Texas Tech 4
10Wisconsin 4
11Auburn--
12East Carolina 3
13South Florida 4
14Brigham Young 2
15Oregon 3
16Oklahoma State 3
17Penn State 3
18Kansas 3
19Wake Forest 2
20Clemson 3
21Illinois 3
22Utah 4
23Arizona State 11
24Ohio State 14
25Vanderbilt 1

Dropped Out: California (#22), Kentucky (#25).
Little change at the top. It was pretty well in lockstep except for the drops. I made the Buckeyes pay a high price, and I'll happily move them back up, but at this point, they have whipped a I-AA team, were fortunate to defend their home field against Ohio U, and were embarrassed by USC. As for ASU, I had them ranked higher than most, and had to penalize them for the loss to UNLV.

The Ball State game.

Ball State Cardinals
2008 record: 3-0 (1-0 in the MAC)
2007 record: 7-6 (lost to Rutgers in International Bowl)
2007 Sagarin: 83
Conference: Mid-American
Coach: Brady Hoke (6th year, 25-37)
Series: IU leads 4-0
TV: 7pm, BTN
IU and Ball State meet for the third consecutive season, and each team has a noteworthy streak entering this game. IU, despite having bad teams more often than not during the last three decades, has won 20 in a row against MAC opponents since losing to Miami in 1977. Ball State, despite some noteworthy close calls in recent years (at #2 Michigan in 2006, at Nebraska in 2007), has never defeated a then-member of a BCS conference (Ball State has three wins against Connecticut before its Big East days). Perhaps none was closer than the IU-Ball State game in Muncie in 2006. Ball State led 23-7 at halftime but did not score in the second half, and IU eeked out a 24-23 win. I mainly remember watching the game through squinted eyes on a computer that was really fast enough for streaming video, and that the game was Kellen Lewis's first major appearance.
The football history between the two schools is relatively short. In 1997, Cam Cameron's first IU team beat BSU 33-7; in 1999, IU won 21-9; In the aforementioned 2006 game, IU won in the only game thus far in Muncie, 24-23; and IU won last year in Bloomington, 38-20. Nevertheless, this year's Ball State team probably is the strongest Cardinal unit in over a decade. In particular, Ball State has assembled an impressive set of players at the offensive skill positions. The Cardinals have ever received some major national hype, even if it was from a shameless, compromised homer. Here are the players to watch:
  • Nate Davis, the Cardinals' quarterback, is dangerous. Last year, despite a pedestrian completion percentage (56 percent), he was extremely productive, throwing 30 touchdown passes and only 6 interceptions. This year, he has thrown 9 touchdowns but 3 interceptions, but his is completing 75 percent of his passes and averaging 303 yards per game. While not the runner that Kellen Lewis is, he ran for 235 yards and 5 touchdowns last year and is averaging 6.3 yards per carry on his 7 rushes this season. Davis threw for 332 yards in last year's game against IU, but was only 26-48 and threw 2 of his 6 interceptions.
  • Receiver Dante Love already has 433 receiving yards and 3 touchdowns this season, and the senior caught 100 yards for 1398 yards and 10 touchdowns last year. At 5-10, he's the anti-James Hardy, but that's all the more to his credit that he has accomplished so much. Love was a bright spot for Ball State in last years game--he caught 14 balls for 177 yards.
  • 6-6 tight end Darius Hill, also a senior, caught 65 balls for 926 yards and 11 touchdowns last year, and this year he has made the most of only 11 catches, with 168 yards and 3 touchdowns.
  • Miquale Lewis is the only runner who has received significant carries, and he too has been outstanding. Lewis has gained 363 yards and scored three touchdowns and averages 6 yards per carry. Lewis was injured in September 2007 and didn't play against IU, but was on track for an excellent season.

In sum, Ball State has talent and experience at the offensive skill positions. Even without Lewis, Ball State managed to gain 7.1 yards per offensive play in last year's game. Fortunately, IU's offense was even better, averaging an astounding 10 yards per offensive snap. Amazingly, there were 10 punts in the game despite all that production, which obviously indicates some big plays. It also points to the unit that could decide this game: Ball State's defense. Unquestionably, Ball State has played a tougher schedule than IU to this point (Ball State has played Northeastern, Navy, and Akron, which really says something about IU's schedule). Still, the two teams are at opposite ends of the I-A defensive rankings. Currently, IU ranks #11 in total defense at 215 yards per game; Ball State is ranked 81 with 385 yards allowed. Ball State is allowing more than five yards per play to opposing offenses. Certainly, Navy always gains a bunch of yards. Unquestionably, IU's defense will allow more yards than its current average. What Ball State's defense does will be interesting to watch.

More on this intriguing matchup as this week continues, including an exchange with Over the Pylon.

Saturday, September 13, 2008

Creanball, part I.

I promised a basketball post this week, and so here it is, although I didn't have as much time as I had hoped.
I'm not a scheme expert, by a long shot, so those who have been around since basketball season know that taking a look at tempo-free stats tends to be my focus during basketball season. It's worth considering exactly how Crean's teams have looked.
In the case of the 2007-08 team, Pomeroy's stats looked kindly on him. Marquette finished #11 in the Pomeroy ratings. There are about 340 teams in Division I, so consider the rankings in light of that number. Crean's teams are very efficient, but their style will be a bit of a departure for IU fans. As to the end result, the 2007-08 Marquette team was outstanding. The Golden Eagles scored 1.102 points per possession (#32, #26 when adjusted) and allowed only .93 per possession defensively (#22, #10 when adjusted for schedule strength). Those numbers aren't much different from IU's numbers from last season. IU, after the late season swoon, still ended up #24 in the Pomeroy ratings, allowed 1.10 points per possession (#36) and gave up only .963 points per possession (#48). Marquette got there differently. While IU ranked #68 in effective field goal percentage, Marquette ranked #141. Marquette was #126 in free throw rate and was in the middle of the pack in both two point (#143) and three point (#138) percentage. Although IU's three point percentage declined precipitously during Eric Gordon's late-season slump, IU ranked #38 in two point shooting percentage and #15 in free throw rate (getting to the line). Marquette was one of the best offensive teams in the county for only two reasons: offensive rebounding (37.8 percent, #23) and taking care of the ball (18.4 percent, #37).
Just skimming back through Marquette's records from 2007 to 2004, Crean's teams have been uniformly excellent at rebounding the ball, but the turnover percentage in 2008 was a major improvement on previous seasons, and perhaps was the reason that the 2008 Marquette team was the best since its Final Four team of 2003.
I intended to do more with this, but ran out of time. I'll get much more deep into this as basketball season approaches, hopefully. But this is an initial look.

Wednesday, September 10, 2008

BTB Roundtable, week 3.

I'll play, even though IU doesn't this week. This week's host is Maize-n-Brew.
1. We're two weeks in and everyone in the Big Ten, minus the two Michigan schools and Illinois, are undefeated. This week marks the end of your early "tune-up" or serious OOC play. Are you satisfied with the way your team has played against the cupcakes on your schedule, or happy with the way they've competed against serious competition?

I’m reasonably satisfied, although we haven’t learned much about IU’s team. After the week 1 win over Western Kentucky, I was content but mildly disappointed with some aspects of the performance. In week 2, IU obliterated Murray State, one of the worst teams in I-AA. The absence of a blowout would have been cause for concern, but the occurrence doesn’t tell us much. Ask me two weeks from now after we play Ball State (never thought I would say that).

2. You knew this was coming. This week's OMG Game of teh Century!!!!1!!1!! until next week's OMG Game of teh Century!!!!1!!1!! is Ohio State versus Southern Cal. Who are you pulling for and why? Further, if you're pulling for one particular team tell me why they'll win, or won't. If you're like me and will be attempting to cure a sunburn from over exposure to the sun during the Michigan Notre Dame game by drinking large quantities of whiskey instead of watching the game, state your excuse.

I’m pulling for Ohio State. I’m not one to feel obligated to root for a Big Ten team, but I loathe USC and think OSU’s scheduling of this game sets a good example for other programs.

3. Besides the above mentioned Game of the Century, there are actually some decent match ups this week in the Big Ten. Purdue v. Oregon; Wisconsin v. Fresno State; Michigan v. Notre Dame; Michigan State v. Florida Atlantic; or Iowa v. Iowa State. I said decent. I didn't say they were all good. Pick the best game from that group, pick the worst game from that group, and Minnesota and Illinois bloggers must post an apology for scheduling Montana State and Louisiana Lafayette respectively.

Oregon v. Purdue intrigues me. I don’t have any real sense of how good either team is or who is going to win. A three touchdown blowout in either direction would not surprise me. Michigan State v. FAU is the worst game on paper, even given MSU’s historical penchant for playing to the competition.

4. Out of Conference scheduling is always something that draws the ire of journalists and bloggers alike. You all know how weak your OOC really is. Admit it. You're sad. So fix it. Pick two teams out of conference you really wish your school would schedule. Nursing colleges and the Center for Veterinary Sciences are verboten. Pick two major conference middle to heavy weights or two heavy weight non-BCS conference programs to add to the schedule. (Please note you get to keep your two patsies per season).

I really can’t dodge this one. IU’s non-conference schedule is awful this year, although I don’t necessarily think a program with IU’s recent history should be a leader in schedule strength. I would love to see IU resume the series with Kentucky, which was played sporadically in the 1960s, 1970s, and early 1980s and then every season from 1987 through 2005. While UK’s football program is ahead of IU’s right now, historically, the schools have similar football and basketball histories, geographic proximity, and an already existing basketball rivalry. Neither school will admit canceling the series, but it should resume. While I hate to focus on SEC cellar-dwellers, I also would consider adding Vanderbilt. Vandy has improved in recent years, the two schools are close enough that either might travel moderately well to the other, and Nashville would be a nice road trip destination. I realize that this wouldn’t create a murderer’s row, but I do think that IU needs to ramp up the difficulty of its schedule gradually, not immediately.

5. All college football fans love to tailgate. Even you, you mothers' basement dwelling bloggers, you. Name your beverage of choice on game days. Alcoholic or non-alcoholic beverage, your readers need to these things about you, to judge you. Confirm all their suspicions.

My beer of choice for tailgating generally will come from the "not expensive but not Bud/Miller/Coors" category. Beers like Newcastle, Blue Moon, and Killian’s are more substantial than the American piss-brews mentioned above, but they don’t have the price tag or alcohol content that might preclude drinking several.

Christian Watford and other basketball discussion.

While football season is just recently underway, IU is in its bye week, and for that reason I'll be writing about basketball a bit this week. In the breaking news category, however, IU added the fifth prospect to its 2009 recruiting class today with a verbal commitment from 6-7 small forward Christian Watford of Birmingham, Alabama (per Peegs and other sources). Watford is ranked #34 in the Rivals rankings and joins #59 Maurice Creek, #98 Derek Elston, #106 Jordan Hulls, and unranked Bobby Capobianco. Despite the threat of NCAA sanctions, Tom Crean has assembled a strong first recruiting class that should improve IU's team immediately.
Also, IU released the basketball schedule last week. Among the highlights:
  • As noted earlier, IU opens the Maui classic with its first game since 2004 against traditional rival Notre Dame.
  • IU plays at Wake Forest in the ACC-Big Ten Challenge.
  • IU plays Gonzaga at Lucas Oil Stadium on December 6 as part of a doubleheader that also features Ohio State and Notre Dame.
  • For the third consecutive year, the IU-Kentucky game is at a campus venue, this time at Rupp.
  • This is the second year of a Big Ten scheduling cycle and the second year of the return to an 18 game conference schedule. IU plays Michigan only at home and Purdue only on the road. While it may be to IU's benefit this year, let me again note the absurdity of the Big Ten's stubborn refusal to protect basketball rivalries.

Again, I hope to add some more basketball discussion as the week progresses.

Tuesday, September 9, 2008

Indiana 45, Murray State 3.

I was out of town and haven't even seen highlights of this game yet. Still, here's the box score. Marcus Thigpen gave his critics, including me, something to consider with a 7 carry, 100 yard performance that included touchdown runs of 67 and 31 yards. IU dominated an overmatched opponent. Games like this one say more when the favored team struggles than when the I-AA team is overwhelmed. IU led in first downs (29-10), rushing yards (254-28), passing yards (222-121), and total offense (476-149). IU averaged nearly 6 yards per play and did not commit a penalty. In addition to Thigpen:
  • Demetrius McCray ran for 47 yards on 8 carries and a TD. Bryan Payton wasn't great, but did score a touchdown. IU is fortunate to have three legitimate options and running back.
  • Kellen Lewis was fine, and Ben Chappell was 6-7 passing.
  • Nine different Hoosiers caught passes.
  • Chris Hagerup bounced back with a 39 yard average on three punts.
  • IU recorded four sacks, including one by Greg Middleton, who played in his first game of the season after missing the first game because of suspension.

Not much else to say, although I may have more after I actually watch the game. Ball State is a formidable opponent, and while I might have preferred to have the bye during the Big Ten season, the Cardinals are no pushover.

Draft Blogpoll ballot, week 2.

Here's my draft ballot for week 2. As always, feel free to comment and I may alter my vote before Brian's deadline of 10 a.m. Wednesday.
RankTeamDelta
1Southern Cal--
2Georgia--
3LSU 1
4Florida 1
5Texas 1
6Oklahoma 1
7Missouri 1
8Alabama 1
9East Carolina 17
10Ohio State 7
11Auburn 1
12Arizona State 1
13Texas Tech 1
14Wisconsin 1
15Kansas 1
16Brigham Young 2
17South Florida 2
18Oregon 1
19Oklahoma State 1
20Penn State--
21Wake Forest 2
22California 4
23Clemson 2
24Illinois 2
25Kentucky--


Dropped Out: South Carolina (#23), Tennessee (#24).

This was a tough one. I dropped OSU pretty significantly, even though a win on Saturday likely would elevate the Buckeyes to number one, and I may bump them up after a close loss. Still, I couldn't justify ranking them ahead of any of the teams I rank ahead of them. I debuted East Carolina at #9. While most of the rankings at this point are projection-based, East Carolina has filled out its resume more than any other team. It will be difficult for ECU to move up to any degree.

IU has the bye this week, of course, so I may actually deal with a bit of basketball if I have the time.

Saturday, September 6, 2008

A closer look at Murray State.

I didn't give as much time to this game as I wanted to this week, but here are some things to watch in tonight's game:
  • Murray won comfortably against Division II Lambuth last week, 41-17. The Racers struggled to run the ball, however, gaining only 3.2 yards per carry against a Division II opponent. This should be a problem for Murray today. The Racers don't appear to be a "tricky" I-AA programs like Nicholls State or Southern Illinois.
  • Two quarterbacks split time for Murray: Nico Yantko (10-15, 156) and Jeff Ehrhardt (6-13, 122). Apparently Ehrhardt, who was the OVC freshman of the year last season, will miss today's game because of a shoulder injury, and Yantko had never seen game action until last week.
  • Charlie Jordan led the team in rushing last year, but with only 601 yards.

Not much time for more. Hopefully this will be an easy one.

Thursday, September 4, 2008

BTB Roundtable, week 2.

As was the case last season, various blogs are "hosting" roundtables in which a multitude of us answer the same set of questions. This week's host is Iowa blog Black Heart Gold Pants, which is a worthwhile read anyway, but be sure to check there for a recap.
1. Week 1's in the books. What surprised you about your team? Are you optimistic? Disappointed? (NOTE: Purdue does not apply here, so these fans must talk about Wake Forest instead)

I’m ever so slightly on the pessimistic side because I saw some problems that plagued last year’s team: failure to finish off an inferior opponent, Marcus Thigpen’s ineffectiveness running between the tackles, big passing yardage allowed to a less talented team, and so on. Still, it was an opener and IU was never seriously threatened after taking a 17-0 lead. I’m not terribly pessimistic, but I don’t know anything about IU other than what I knew last week. A 50-0 win would have been nice. A loss or close game would have been a disaster. 31-13? Eh.

2. Beanie Wells' foot is definitely the top story in the conference. What's #2?

I think that Michigan’s loss to Utah probably ranks as story #2, given how rare it is for Michigan to lose a home game to an opponent of that stature, or at least how rare it used to be. Also, Juice Williams passed for 450 yards. I didn’t think he could do that even in practice.

3. Admit it: you loathe DickFraudROFL (né Rich Rodriguez), but when Michigan scored that last touchdown, you were rooting for them to make the 2-pt. conversion.

I will admit neither. I have no problem with Rodriguez, a successful and innovative coach who seems like a decent guy. I was never a big fan of the Cult of Schembechler, so the clean break from that coaching legacy actually makes Michigan less annoying.

I wasn’t watching the game Saturday, but if I had been, I would have been rooting for Utah. In the abstract, I want the Big Ten to do well in non-conference games and bowl games, but I don’t take that to the extreme of actively rooting for teams that I don’t like or rooting against interesting upsets. Life is too short to root for Michigan over Utah.

4. Is this weekend's slate of games actually less interesting than last week's?

I’m not sure if you mean the national slate or the Big Ten slate, but the answer to both is "yes." The first Saturday of the season is always fun, even if there aren’t loads of competitive games, but last week’s slate included some quality matchups. This week, no ranked team plays another ranked team. As for the Big Ten, the only two matchups between BCS conference opponents are Penn State-Oregon State and Duke-Northwestern, neither of which will be confused with USC-Ohio State. Minnesota-Bowling Green probably is the most interesting matchup, and that’s pretty damning.

5. Don't you hate pants?

Yes.

Tuesday, September 2, 2008

A quick look at Murray State.

Murray State Racers
2008 record: 1-0
2007 record: 2-9
2007 Sagarin: 229
Conference: Ohio Valley
Coach: Matt Griffin (3rd year, 4-19)
Series: First meeting
IU continues its less-than-overwhelming nonconference schedule with the weakest team on the 2008 slate, Murray State. The Racers won the Ohio Valley Conference and qualified for the I-AA playoffs as recently as 2002, but the Racers have gone only 18-40 with one winning season since then.
Although they never have won the I-AA title, the Racers' coaching history is littered with famous names. Former Arkansas/current Mississipi coach Houston Nutt coached the Racers from 1993-1996, improving the Racers from 4-7 his first year to 11-game winners in years three and four. (I find it hilarious that Murray State replaced Houston Nutt with a guy named "Denver Johnson." Stick with what works, I guess). Virginia Tech legend Frank Beamer coached the Racers from 1981-1986 before returning to his alma mater. Mike Gottfried coached Murray State from 1978-1980 before moving on to Cincinnati, Kansas, and Pitt. As the number of coaches who moved up in the world suggests, the poor record of the last 5 years is anomalous for the Racers.
Still, Murray State shapes up much like Indiana State last year as one of the worst teams in I-AA and as a team that IU should thrash. As noted above, Murray ranked #229 in the Sagarin rating last year, ratings that included only 242 schools (the aforementioned Sycamores were one of the unlucky 13 ranked behind Murray State). Coach Matt Griffin coached at Tennessee-Martin from 2003-2005. After going 2-10 and 2-9 in his first two years, he improved to 6-5 in year three before moving on to Murray State. Year three, in my unscientific impression, seems to be when many coaching finally make an impact on a losing program, so it's possible that Murray will be better. The Racers defeated something called "Lambuth" in the opener, 41-17.
More on Murray's numbers and personnel later in the week.