The TCU game.

Texas Christian Horned Frogs
Current record: 7-3
Current RPI: 70
Current Sagarin: 106
Current Pomeroy: 97
2007-08 record: 14-16
2007-08 RPI: 200
2007-08 Sagarin: 181
2007-08 Pomeroy: 169
Series: IU leads 2-0
Last IU win: 12/27/1993 (81-65 in Indianapolis)
Last TCU win: never
Pomeroy scouting report
TV: 8 pm, ESPN2

TCU, like IU, is a program in transition. Jim Christian, formerly of Kent State, took over for Neil Daugherty, who had only one winning season (2004-05) in six seasons. After a 1-3 start, TCU has won six in a row, including against Big 12 cellar-dweller Colorado and the recently prominent Wichita State of the MVC. As the numbers above show, TCU is a borderline top 100 team at this point, and so this will be an important test. IU has defeated all worse teams and has lost badly to all better teams. The Frogs are led by senior Kevin Langford and junior college transfers Edvinas Ruzgas and Zvonko Buljan. Buljan was a teammate of Devan Dumes at Vincennes last season.

Like IU, TCU is more impressive defensively than offensively. TCU gets to the line and shoots free throws well, but doesn't shoot well and turns the ball over quite a bit. Defensively, TCU's tempo-free numbers are above average except for two point field goal defense. They force turnovers at a reasonably high clip, 23.5 percent of possessions. IU now ranks #343 in Division I in turnover percentage, ahead of only lowly Arkansas-Pine Bluff. IU turns the ball over on 29.8 percent of its possessions, a number that has to improve.

Unfortunately, it does not appear that Verdell Jones will be back anytime soon and therefore won't be taking the burden off of Daniel Moore in the near future. The Hoosier Scoop reports that Jones is cleared for non-contact work only, which makes me speculate that it's unlikely Jones will play against Kentucky on Saturday.

Again, offensive turnovers have been IU's biggest problem and defensive turnovers have been TCU's strength. An improved TO number by IU would be some cause for optimism, but also will be a tall order.

Blogpoll draft ballot, final regular season.

Rank	Team	Delta
1	Texas	1
2	Florida	2
3	Oklahoma	--
4	Alabama	3
5	Texas Tech	1
6	Southern Cal	1
7	Penn State	--
8	Utah	3
9	Ohio State	1
10	Boise State	2
11	Oklahoma State	2
12	Georgia Tech	11
13	Cincinnati	5
14	Oregon	5
15	Georgia	2
16	TCU	2
17	Michigan State	3
18	Missouri	10
19	Boston College	2
20	Pittsburgh	4
21	Northwestern	1
22	Mississippi	3
23	Brigham Young	3
24	Florida State	3
25	Virginia Tech	1

Dropped Out: Ball State (#15), Oregon State (#16).

Here it is. I don't think the software is right. None of the up and down numbers make sense, as you will note if you scroll down and review last week's ballot. So, ignore the up and down numbers. As for my top four, I have Texas-Florida-Oklahoma-Alabama. My Big XII rationale is the same as last week. I don't think Oklahoma should have been in the title game over Texas, so I'm not going to give excessive credit for whipping a team that Texas whipped once and probably would have again. As I said last week, I'm a big believer in using head-to-head results among fairly comparable teams, and I'm also generally opposed to conference rematches in bowl games unless there is a really compelling reason. So, why Texas over Florida for #1? It could have gone either way. Each team's signature win was nearly identical to the other's: Texas beat OU by 10 on a neutral field, Florida beat Alabama by 11 on a neutral field. Texas Tech's loss, in the final seconds on the road against one-loss Texas Tech, was more excusable than Florida's loss at home to Ole Miss.

Gonzaga 70, Indiana 54.

Here's the box. IU lost by 16, but was within 9 points with under four minutes remaining, so obviously on a superficial level, IU exceeded expectations. I would love to claim this game as significant progress, but I think it had more to do with an uncharacteristically awful shooting performance by Gonzaga. The Zags shot 45 percent from the field but only 3-16 from behind the arc. Unfortunately, IU's shooting was even worse, 30 percent for the game, although the Hoosiers stayed in it by shooting 6-12 from behind the arc in the second half. If there was any bright spot for the Hoosiers, that was it: maximizing possessions by taking care of the ball and making three pointers is IU's only hope for respectability. Unfortunately, the second part of that equation, taking care of the ball, was as bad as ever. IU turned the ball over 25 times in a 69 possession game. That 34 percent turnover percentage is IU's worst of the season, which is saying something. Verdell Jones missed his second consecutive game after an apparent concussion in the Cornell game, and could have been used to spell Daniel Moore, who turned the ball over 7 times in 37 minutes of play. Tom Pritchard played well, although he spent most of the game in foul trouble. Malik Story emerged, scoring 14 points on 11 shots, but there weren't too many offensive success stories for the Hoosiers.

IU enters an interesting stretch of the schedule. The Hoosiers play TCU at home on Wednesday before playing a spotty Kentucky team on the road. I don't expect a win at UK, but a competitive game might be a positive sign, while a loss to TCU probably spells disaster.

The Gonzaga game.

Gonzaga Bulldogs
Current record: 5-0
Current RPI: 2
Current Sagarin: 3
Current Pomeroy: 2
2007-08 record: 25-8 (lost to Davidson in first round of NCAA Tournament)
2007-08 RPI: 34
2007-08 Sagarin: 29
2007-08 Pomeroy: 30
Series: IU leads 2-1
Last IU win: 3/15/2007 (70-57 in first round of NCAA Tournament, Sacramento)
Last Gonzaga win: 3/18/2006 (90-80 in second round of NCAA Tournament, Salt Lake City)
Pomeroy scouting report
TV: 1:30 pm, BTN

IU won the last matchup between these two teams, in the 2007 NCAA Tournament. The Zags have lost in the first round of the NCAA Tournament in the last two years, but hopes are high this year. Gonzaga's starting backcourt in that 2007 game, Jeremy Pargo and Matt Bouldin, remains intact, and 6-11 forward Josh Heytvelt, who was suspended for the previous meeting with IU, remains. As the Kennel Report noted, Gonzaga has a balanced attack, with six players averaging between 9.6 and 15 points per game. And as the Pomeroy scouting report indicates, Gonzaga has excelled at nearly everything except rebounding and free throw shooting. Everything else is great: shooting, field goal defense, taking care of the ball, forcing turnovers, you name it.

At this point, IU has defeated, with varying degrees of ease, every low major opponent, but has been humiliated by every major or borderline major program on the schedule. Gonzaga may be IU's toughest opponent to date, although Notre Dame and Wake are very good. I hate to consider anything a moral victory, but a competitive loss would be a sign of significant progress for this team. I don't expect it.

Wake Forest 83, Indiana 58.

I'll hopefully get a Gonzaga preview up before tomorrow's game, but first thing's first. Here's the box score from the latest of IU's blowout losses. I didn't see much of this one (operator error by my wife re: Tivo, although that 15 minute block of ESPNNews was fascinating). It sounds as if I missed the best part. The game was tied 20-20 after the first 10 minutes of the game, but Wake Forest outscored IU 27-11 for the rest of the half, and that was that. I was hoping that perhaps IU took good care of the ball during that stretch, but I count 8 turnovers in the first 10 minutes. Mostly, it seems that Wake was even sloppier, with nine TOs in that stretch. Indeed, Wake was nearly as sloppy, turning the ball over 24 times to IU's 26. Even the rebounding numbers weren't in Wake's favor: the teams had identical offensive rebounding percentages. The difference is that Wake scored at will, shooting 60 percent to IU's 37 percent on nearly identical shot totals. Quite simply, Matt Roth's 12 points on 4-5 from the field were IU's only offensive success story.

There's not much to be said about this one, except that IU still hasn't shown an ability to compete with even a lower tier Big Ten team. And it may not get better soon. IU plays Gonzaga, TCU, and at Kentucky in the next eight days.

Q&A with The Kennel Report.

I exchanged some questions with The Kennel Report, a Gonzaga blog. My answers to their questions, as well as answers to the same questions by Inside the Hall, are here. Maybe next time I'll proofread a little better, and my answer to the question about defense makes clear that I didn't see the Wake game. I asked a shorter set of questions, and TKR's answers to mine are below:

1. There have been many flash-in-the-pan programs that have made a run to the Sweet 16 and quickly fell back to earth. What is Gonzaga's secret? Is it just Mark Few, or is there some other reason that the Zags have become a legitimate national power?

Wow, this is one of those questions that is probably in the eye of the beholder but Gonzaga's success has to stop and start with Mark Few. Dan Monson was the head coach when the Zags went to the Elite Eight in '99 but bolted to Minnesota the next year. Since then Few has led Gonzaga to the tournament in every year since. A big part of Mark Few's tenure at Gonzaga has been about developing talent. Guys like Ronny Turiaf, Adam Morrison, and Blake Stepp weren't huge on the recruiting scene but they blew up upon their arrival in Spokane. The staff has done a great job at recruiting this untapped talent and putting out a team that buys into the 'team' concept. The Zags have kind of left those days behind. They now recruit at a high level and it should be interesting to see how the coaching staff adapts to being a power school because the days of sneaking up on teams are long gone.

2. What should IU expect from this team? Strengths, weaknesses, concerns, etc.

We're extremely excited about this team so these answers could be a little bit swayed in the positive side...

The major strength of this team is experience and depth. People around the program know that if there is a year for the Zags to make a final four run, this is it. Jeremy Pargo, Micah Downs, and Josh Heytvelt are all seniors who have been around the program for a while. They are all playing at extremely high levels. Pargo is near the top in assists per game, and Downs and Heytvelt are leading the team in scoring. Along the same lines, Gonzaga has five players averaging double figures in points so far in Pargo, Downs, Heytvelt, Matt Bouldin, and Austin Daye. Steven Gray is averaging 9.6 points a game so I expect him to join the group soon. With that kind of experience and depth, there is no doubt that on any given night, a different player can score twenty points for Gonzaga. This is a much needed change for the program because for so long we relied on that one player to win games for us (see Adam Morrison, Ronny Turiaf, Derek Raivio etc etc..)

The thing you will notice right away is the size and length of this team. Matt Bouldin and Jeremy Pargo start at the guard spots for Gonzaga and look like they should be playing linebacker for the University of Washington. They are both around 220 pounds so they can not only play on the outside but they can also go down low and back you down. The front line for the Zags is extremely long. Micah Downs is 6'8'', and Austin Daye and Josh Heytvelt are 6'11''. They are all tremendous shot blockers and, aside from the Tennessee game, have rebounded very well. Mark Few has got a couple of 7 footers on his bench as well in Rob Sacre and Will Foster. You'll probably see Sacre early and often but Foster, who is 7'5'', has only really played in garbage situations.

The glaring weaknesses for Gonzaga is their reliance on the three point shot and foul problems on the front line. As I mentioned earlier, Gonzaga has players that can shoot from all over the court and during some games, they all try to take over and shoot the long ball. The only player whose three point shot is his biggest strength is sophomore Steven Gray. He lives around the three point line and is a dagger shooter. Everyone else is a marginal three point shooter but is better at something else. This nearly killed us against in the Old Spice Classic. Another thing which has frustrated the Gonzaga faithful is sloppy fouls by our bigs. Austin Daye and Josh Heytvelt have been taken out of some games early for some bad fouls and that really hurts our depth. Our front line is big but aside from Daye and Heytvelt, not very offensively gifted. Rob Sacre is coming off injury, Ira Brown is a a great role player, and Will Foster hasn't made any huge stride in his three years at Gonzaga. If they get in foul trouble early, we will be forced to play small and that is something we don't want to do.

3. Is there any discontent among Gonzaga fans? I would guess that the program's current status is beyond the wildest dreams of fans who followed Gonzaga before 1999. But is there any grumbling about not yet reaching the Final Four, for instance?

That's a great question and something I have been trying to figure out for awhile. Gonzaga has a weird fanbase because you have the older fans who have seen the crappy days when Gonzaga was terrible and you have newer generation fans like myself who have only seen Gonzaga dominate their conference and make the tournament every year. I think I would have a great answer to your question after this year because this is the make or break year for the Zags. They have no reason not to at least make the Elite Eight and if they don't, Mark Few is going to hear it from some of the fans. After this year their will be a huge transformation in the program because Pargo, Downs, and Heytvelt all graduate along with Ira Brown. Austin Daye may bolt to the draft as well.

As of right now, you can almost taste the fear floating around Spokane right now. Everyone knows this is a talented team but is worried about the NCAA Tournament. Hopefully the Old Spice Classic victory will ease some tensions but I would have to characterize the mood in Spokane as being cautious enthusiasm.

Not to mention the fact that Gonzaga has the weight of Washington sports on it's back. The football season wasn't kind to the state of Washington, I believe the Seahawks, Cougars and Huskies have 4 wins combined between the three teams. It's basically 'Zags or Bust' up here.

Thanks, guys. I would wish you luck, but luck can only work against Gonzaga in this game.

The Wake Forest game.

Wake Forest Demon Deacons

Current record: 6-0

Current RPI: 61
Current Sagarin: 22
Current Pomeroy: 38
2007-08 record: 17-13
2007-08 RPI: 103
2007-08 Sagarin: 74
2007-08 Pomeroy: 68
Series: Wake Forest leads 1-0
Pomeroy gameplan
TV: 4 pm, BTN

Wake Forest is tall. IU is not. Of the 9 Demon Deacons who play 10 or more minutes a game, six are 6-9 or taller. Three are 6-11 or taller. IU, of course, has only three scholarship players taller than 6-6: Tijan Jobe, Tom Pritchard, and Kyle Taber. IU is so small that 6-5 guards Malik Story and Verdell Jones count as "size," but Jones seems unlikely to play after getting his bell rung against Cornell.

Unfortunately, I have little time for a true preview today, but it will be very difficult for IU to compete in this game. While IU's earlier opponents have tended to be offensive juggernauts, Wake is by far the best defensive team that the Hoosiers have faced. Wake is allowing only .78 points per possession (#7 nationally), and really limits opponents' opportunities in nearly every way imaginable: they force turnovers, play excellent field goal defense, rebound really well defensively, and block tons of shots.

IU's only previous meeting with Wake was under similar circumstances. In the 2003-04 Big Ten ACC Challenge, IU lost at Wake 100-67 on the way to IU's only losing record of the last 40 years. Oh, and IU's other trip to Winston-Salem? The 1997 NCAA Tournament, in which IU mailed in an 80-62 loss to Colorado. Lawrence Joel Coliseum has not been kind to the Hoosiers, and I don't expect that to change tonight.

Indiana 72, Cornell 57.

Andy Bernard no doubt had a relapse during this one, which amounts to IU's best win of the year. Cornell has nothing approaching Big Ten talent, but won the Ivy League last season with a perfect record and is favored to win again. My pregame concern was in part based on ignorance: I didn't realize that two of Cornell's best players were injured and unavailable. I also didn't expect Verdell Jones to miss the last 30 minutes of the game after being knocked cold by a (clean) Cornell screen. (By the way, I hope it was out-of-state students booing the Cornell player in question, Jeff Foote. I would like to think that native Hoosiers would recognize the excellence and appropriateness of that screen).

Here are the stats. This was a 68-possession game, and so IU generally is playing a bit faster than last season's much more talented team. Cornell's vaunted offense played a horrible game. The Big Red shot 33 percent from the field and managed only 9 offensive rebounds. Ryan Wittman scored 28 points for Cornell, but he needed 22 shots to do it, and was only 8-22 from the field. Even that less-than-efficient performance was above average compared to his teammates. IU, in the meantime, shot over 55 percent from the field, 79 percent from the line, and was more effective than usual on the boards. Tom Pritchard excelled: he scored 23 points on 7-7 from the field and 9-13 from the line. IU's rebounds were well-distributed. The bad news? Turnover problems continued, and against a team not known for its defense. IU turned the ball over on nearly 30 percent of its possession, second-worst on the season after the St. Joseph's game. Most importantly, IU finished strong. After blowing big leads against IUPUI and Chaminade, it was encouraging to see IU finish an opponent that was on the ropes.

In sum, IU played reasonably well against a tall but not particularly aggressive team. This doesn't give me much hope that IU will be competitive in upcoming games against Wake Forest, Gonzaga, and Kentucky, but this was IU's most complete effort of the season, and so I'll take it.

Blogpoll ballot, week 14.

Rank	Team	Delta
1	Alabama	--
2	Texas	--
3	Oklahoma	--
4	Florida	--
5	Texas Tech	1
6	Southern Cal	1
7	Penn State	--
8	Utah	3
9	Ohio State	1
10	Boise State	2
11	Oklahoma State	2
12	Georgia Tech	11
13	Boston College	4
14	Cincinnati	4
15	Ball State	--
16	Oregon	3
17	Georgia	4
18	TCU	4
19	Missouri	11
20	Michigan State	--
21	Pittsburgh	3
22	Northwestern	--
23	Mississippi	2
24	Brigham Young	2
25	Florida State	4

Dropped Out: Oregon State (#16).

Obviously, the key issue with this week's ballot concerns the one-loss teams, particularly Texas and Oklahoma. My placement is unchanged from last week and has as much to do with the nature of the Big XII triumvirate's losses more than anything else; in other words, I have ranked the three Big XII teams based on which is the closest to being undefeated. Texas lost at Texas Tech in the final seconds of the game; Oklahoma lost to Texas in a competitive but not down-to-the-wire game on a neutral field; Texas Tech lost badly at Oklahoma. Obviously, a review of the teams' nonconference schedule strength relegates TT a distant third among the group. Oklahoma, thanks to surprisingly good seasons by Cincinnati and TCU, had a tougher non-con than Texas, but not sufficiently tougher to override a 10 point win on a neutral field. I'm not entirely sure whether I should have TT behind Florida, but Florida's placement this week is academic: an SEC title game win over #1 Alabama would place the Gators in the top two, while a loss would take the Gators out of the top 5.

The more interesting question is what I would have done if Oklahoma had lost in Stillwater last night. Clearly, when head-to-head is taken out of the equation, I believe Texas has a resume superior to TT. Still, I'm a strong believer in the significance of head-to-head competition, sanctity of the regular season, etc., so I would have had to rank TT ahead of Texas (in that alternate universe, it would have been Alabama-TT-Texas-Florida). Texas would beat TT 7 times out of ten, but what happened happened. Of course, I may face this conundrum next week if OU edges ahead of UT in the BCS rankings and then loses to Missouri. I'll cross that bridge when I come to it.

The Cornell game.

Cornell Big Red
Current record: 4-2
Current RPI: 135
Current Sagarin: 127
Current Pomeroy: 103
2007-08 record: 22-6 (lost to Stanford in first round of NCAA Tournament)
2007-08 RPI: 67
2007-08 Sagarin: 113
2007-08 Pomeroy: 135
Series: first meeting
Pomeroy gameplan
TV: 4 pm, BTN

IU returns to the mainland with what could be a really tough game against Cornell, the defending Ivy League champion. Last season, Cornell went 21-5 and lost to Stanford in the first round of the NCAA Tournament. The Big Red were one of the most efficient offensive teams in the country last year. They were #37 in the nation in offensive efficiency, averaging over 1.1 points per possession, and shot 40.2 from three point range (#7 in the nation) and 52.6 percent from two point rsange (#32 nationally). They shot 76 percent from the line, #10 nationally.

The Cornell Basketball blog has an impressive amount of coverage of this one. The Athlon preview noted in this post shows that the Big Red return three all-Ivy selections from last season, including Ryan Wittman, a first team all-conference player who is the son of former IU great Randy Wittman. Witman is about 10 percent off his 43 percent career three point average, but certainly he will be looking forward to playing on his dad's old homecourt.

So far, Cornell has lost to St. John's and Siena and has wins over South Dakota, the Loyolas of Maryland and Chicago, and Eastern Michigan. Cornell has continued to shoot well, but isn't a great rebounding team. On paper, this looks like a challenging post-Hawaii matchup for the Hoosiers, who have been overmatched by both major opponents and competitive with some low major or worse programs.

Lynch receives the dreaded vote of confidence.

Per the Hoosier Scoop, incoming athletic director Fred Glass, who doesn't actually start the job until January 2, affirmed that Bill Lynch will be the coach next season. He didn't limit it to next season, of course, simply saying that Lynch "will be the football coach at Indiana University." According to the Hoosier Scoop, negative recruiting from other schools and comments from fans led to the decision to issue the statement. While such statements are, from the coach's perspective, better than the alternative, they are never a sign of health in a program, and almost always foretell a firing or resignation in the coming seasons.

One statement from Glass that made me pull my hair out: “I think contracts need to mean something at Indiana University." Yes, they need to mean what they say. Firing a coach with years remaining on his contract is not a violation of the contract. It's consistent with the termination provisions of the contract. Glass, an attorney far more accomplished than me and most in his profession, knows this, but wants to play the sports talk radio game about "honoring" a contract. Why? He's probably going to have to fire him after 2009 with years left on his contract. Whatever. At least we have the answer and can hope for a transformation in the next nine months.

Purdue wrap-up and season post-mortem.

Here's the box score. Anyone who watched the game, read the coverage, or even saw the score knows that this game was a complete beatdown, and I'm not going to bother to rehash it a week later. 62-10, 596-214 in total offense, and 35-14 in first downs tell most of the story. My post from last weekend puts the game in historical context: the largest margin of defeat to Purdue since the 19th century, and IU's largest margin of defeat, in 122 years of football, to a team with a losing record.

There are many reasonable criticisms of Bill Lynch, but I really hate hearing about how he lacks passion on the sideline. There are great coaches who have a stoic demeanor. There are bad coaches who are fiery on the sideline. Still, when I contrast the indifference with which this result seemed to transpire on the sideline, compared to Terry Hoeppner's exhortation of the Hoosiers in the 2006 comeback at Illinois, it's hard not to buy into those criticisms for a moment. As poorly as the team played, the most pathetic moment of this most pathetic game was with 2:49 remaining in the first half, when IU, facing 4th and goal from the 9, kicked a 27 yard field goal to "narrow" the deficit to 34-3. This was the first half. More than half of the game remained. Against a fellow 3-8, 1-6 team that happens to be a rival. That was the first time in the game that IU had been closer to the end zone than the Purdue 35. I realize, of course, that IU's odds of winning were low at that point. But any IU comeback, however improbable, required a touchdown on that possession. For whatever reason, Lynch was happy to get on the scoreboard and essentially waved the white flag before halftime.

There hasn't been any media groundswell about Lynch's performance, and so I suspect that he will be back for 2009. In his various postseason comments, Lynch has noted the need to go back to work, etc., but I don't see any outward sign of serious introspection.

Some big picture stuff: in all games, IU scored 246 points and allowed 423 for a margin of -177. IU was -187 and -211 in 2002 and 2003, Gerry Dinardo's first two years, and -239 in 1997, Cam Cameron's first year. Before that, it's necessary to go back to 1970 to find a worse point differential. For what it's worth, the 11 game schedule and the eight game Big Ten schedule began in 1971. One might argue that it's not fair to compare a point differential in a 12 game to an 11 game season. I disagree. IU's numbers this year are bad despite a +60 differential in games against I-AA Murray State and essentially I-AA Western Kentucky. The 1997 nonconference schedule included a Mack Brown-led North Carolina team that finished 11-1 and a mediocre Kentucky team. The 2002 schedule, while not murderer's row, included road trips to Utah (5-6) and Kentucky (7-5). The 2003 schedule included road trips to Connecticut (9-3) and Washington (6-6). In other words, the 12 game schedule, which included two functional exhibition games in addition to two good MAC teams, made IU's point differential look better than it should, not worse.

A review of IU's Big Ten performance confirms this. In the eight Big Ten games, IU scored only 116 points and allowed 328. In other words, IU was outscored by 212 points in Big Ten play and the average score of a Big Ten game was 41-15. Here are the Big Ten point differentials for other bad seasons since the eight game schedule was introduced in 1971 (although the Big Ten did play a nine game schedule in 1983 and 1984):

2008: -212
2005: -148
2004: -99
2003: -175
2002: -168
2000: -116
1999: -86
1998: -105
1997: -207
1996: -87
1995: -175
1985: -124
1984: -112
1983: -163
1981: -115
1974: -81
1973: -132
1971: -108

In other words, this was IU's least competitive Big Ten season since the advent of the eight game schedule.

I don't know what is going to happen to Lynch. As I said above, I expect that he will be back for 2009, and if so, I sincerely hope that he proves me wrong and wins a bunch of games. Still, by the numbers, Lynch's first season is most comparable to Cam Cameron's first season and Gerry Dinardo's first two seasons. The only rationale for hiring Lynch, as opposed to opening up a search and finding someone who didn't lose 21 in a row at Ball State, was to avoid the negative aspects of a coaching change. Instead, IU produced a season that was comparable to recent transition seasons, and quite arguably worse. Rick Greenspan was under quite a bit of pressure last year, from the media and from old guard program guys like Bill Mallory and Harold Mauro, to give Lynch the job. Certainly, it would have been odd to see IU preparing for its first bowl game in 14 seasons with a lame duck coach. Still, the facts have not vindicated the decision to hire Lynch, and actually undercut the only reason for hiring him. Calling the 2008 season a setback doesn't quite capture it.

Maui Invitational, game 3: Indiana 81, Chaminade 79.

Here are the stats. We'll take it, of course. As I mentioned yesterday, Chaminade wins a game in this tournament every so often, so it's nice that IU avoided that indignity. IU led by 9 at halftime and expanded the lead to 15 with 14:41 remaining in the game. IU missed a bunch of freethrows in the final minutes, and Chaminade had a three point shot for the win. I didn't see this one, so I'll avoid too much comment. By the numbers, IU improved a number of problems. The Hoosiers shot 58 percent from the field, assisted 18 of 30 field goals, and turned the ball over only 11 times in a 68 possession game. Chaminade was able to stick around because the Silverswords made 12 od 23 three point shots and because IU shot only 14-27 from the line. There are no big lessons to be drawn from a game against a D-II opponent, but the Hoosiers leave the islands with a 3-2 record overall and a chance against Cornell of the Ivy League on Sunday, before the inevitable beatdown at Wake Forest.

Maui Invitational, game 3: Chaminade.

IU's trip to Hawaii comes to a merciful end at 7 p.m. tonight with a game against Chaminade, the host school. I'm not doing a full preview because there isn't much statistical information about the Division II Silverswords. IU played Chaminade in the loser's bracked in 1994 and won 92-79, between losses to Utah and Tulane. According to Yahoo! Sports, Chaminade has a 5-65 record in the tournament, including a win last season over Princeton. Chaminade also defeated Davidson in 1984, Providence in 1991, Stanford in 1992, and Villanova in 2003. Contrary to popular belief (or at least my belief), Chaminade's legendary upset of top-ranked Virginia in 1982 was not part of the Maui Invitational; rather, it provided the inspiration for the tournament.

The NCAA report.

Here's a link to the .pdf of the NCAA's report. It's much longer than most of the reports I have read of this nature--about 60 pages. Ultimately, the NCAA seems to have split the difference. The NCAA stood firm on its 11th hour addition of the "failure to monitor" charge, concluding: "

Its monitoring of the former head coach and the men's basketball program proved both untimely in execution and inadequate to fulfill the requirements of heightened scrutiny.

Nevertheless, the NCAA added no additional penalties. Ultimately, the NCAA decided that hiring Sampson was such a gamble that IU was obligated to review by hand every single telephone record as it came in the door. Factors in IU's favor on this count were IU's nearly 50 years without a major violation, the significance of the self-imposed sanctions (including lost scholarships, significant recruiting restrictions on Crean, Dakich, Sampson, and one of the assistant coaches, the slot then filled by Dakich and now filled by one of Crean's assistants), and the way that IU dealt with Sampson and the remaining players.

So, that's that. IU kept its nose clean for 50 years beforehand, so doing so for the next three years (and hopefully for long after that) shouldn't be a problem. If anyone wants to argue that IU didn't pay a price, I would direct you to IU's results after mid-February of last year through this season, and to a comparison of last season's roster to this season's.

Maui Invitational, game 2: St. Joseph's 80, Indiana 54.

Here's the box. I didn't get the chance to watch this one, and probably won't see tomorrow's seventh place game against Chaminade. IU was reasonably competitive in the first half, trailing 34-29 at the break, and pulled to within one after scoring the first four points of the second half. A 23-2 run by St. Joseph's immediately thereafter sealed the game and illustrated just how long this season could be. Certainly, IU's young players should improve, but they are far from being able to compete with even a middle of the pack Big Ten team. Nine turnovers in the first seven and a half minutes of the second half sealed the deal. Frankly, however, St. Joseph's didn't take much better care of the ball, with 19 turnovers to IU's 23. Really, the numbers were fairly similar with the glaring exception of field goal percentage: St. Joe's shot 58 percent from the field, including 7-9 from three point range by Darrin Govens. Again, considering that IU isn't going to out-muscle anyone, shooting and valuing the ball are the Hoosiers' only hope, and they haven't shown much of it recently.

Probation.

According to the Hoosier Scoop, IU will be on probation for three years, but will receive no additional sanctions other than what IU self-imposed. It will be interesting to read the report, of course, but my guess is that the outcome will satisfy everyone who matters (the definition "everyone who matters" does not include Purdue and Illinois fans or their douchebag coaches, of course).

The Hoosier Scoop doesn't say what happened to Sampson and Senderoff. That will be interesting.

NCAA to announce decision at 4 p.m.

This will be an unusually eventful afternoon for the IU basketball program. Per the Indianapolis Star, the NCAA will announce its disposition of IU's case in a 4 p.m. conference call today. That call will commence shortly after the conclusion of IU's game against St. Joseph's in Maui.

Maui Invitational, game 2: St. Joseph's.

St. Joseph's Hawks
Current record: 1-2
Current RPI: 78
Current Sagarin: 78
Current Pomeroy: 191
2007-08 record: 21-13 (lost to Oklahoma in first round of NCAA Tournament)
2007-08 RPI: 50
2007-08 Sagarin: 54
2007-08 Pomeroy: 54
Series: IU leads 2-1
Last IU win: 12/15/1984 (81-44 in Bloomington)
Last St. Joseph's win: 12/30/68 (80-72 in Philadelphia)
Pomeroy gameplan
TV: 1:30 pm today, ESPNU

IU enters the loser's bracket of the Maui Invitational today and plays St. Joseph's, a team that has struggled a bit this season but has been one of the most successful programs in the Atlantic 10 in recent years. As noted above, this is the fourth meeting all-time between the schools. The most memorable to IU was was in the 1981 NCAA Tournament. St. Joe's upset top ranked DePaul in the second round of the tournament, but ultimately lost 78-46 to IU in the regional final, and IU eventually won the title.

As for the current team, St. Joe's was, like Notre Dame, an extremely efficient offensive team last year. The Hawks ranked #19 in raw offensive efficiency last year, and ranked in the top 30 in both two point and three point shooting percentage. According to this CollegeHoopsNet preview, St. Joe's lost its leading scorer and most of its big men, and like IU, the Hawks should be more of a perimeter-oriented team. The Hawks lost 68-50 to Texas in the first round in Maui, and after a season-opening 69-57 win against Rider, but lost 73-69 to Holy Cross. Even a much better IU team may well have lost to Notre Dame, but this game strikes me as something of a bellwether that will tell us whether the 2008-09 Hoosiers might flirt with an NIT bid, or whether we are headed for a single-digit victory total. Obviously, IU is young and inexperienced and should improve as the season goes on, so I don't want to overemphasize this game. But I think it will tell us more than last night's game told us.

Maui Invitational game one: Notre Dame 88, Indiana 50.

IU's first game against high major competition certainly highlighted the problems that the Hoosiers will have this season, although very few games will be against teams the caliber of #8 ND. Here's the box score. Certainly, ND has a high powered offense that will score points against nearly anyone, but IU's poor shooting in the first half, even on open shots, prevented IU from competing in the game. IU shot 31 percent in the first half before improving to 50 percent in the second half. The other story was offensive rebounding: while the announcers convinced themselves early on that IU was forcing ND into long possessions, IU pulled down only 7 offensive rebounds on 35 misses.

This game was played at Notre Dame's pace--roughly 72 possessions--but IU's 20 turnovers still are a concern, as was the 1-12 shooting from behind the arc. This is going to be a familar routine, but if IU is going to achieve any relative success this year with this guard-heavy roster, the team must shoot well from behind the arc and must take care of the ball. Notre Dame, on the other hand, shot 10-26 from three point range. While Harangody had a decent enough game, Tory Jackson and Kyle McAlarney killed IU from outside. As for IU's individuals:

• Tom Pritchard's game looked prettier on TV than on paper. Pritchard shot 6-15 from the field and score 14 points while pulling down 6 rebounds. Still, he wasn't overwhelmed by Harangody, and put himself in position for open shots that he simply did not make. If that improves, Pritchard is going to be a fine player this season and beyond.
• Devan Dumes likes to shoot, but it wasn't working tonight: 10 points on 13 shots.

St. Joseph's tomorrow.