The Penn State game.

Penn State Nittany Lions

Current record: 10-6

Big Ten record: 2-2

Current RPI: 138

Current Sagarin: 109

2006-07 record: 11-19 (2-14)

2006-07 RPI: 199

2006-07 Sagarin: 155

Series: IU leads 26-3

Last IU win: 3/3/07, 94-63 in Bloomington

Last Penn State win: 2/15/06 (68-61 in State College)

Last Penn State win in Bloomington: Never.

TV: 2:00 pm Sunday, Big Ten Network.

Blogs: Black Shoe Diaries, Run Up the Score, The Nittany Line, There is no Name on my Jersey, Nittany Whiteout

Penn State's basketball program is much like IU's football program. The Lions seem to have structural disadvantages (mostly, the school's rural location, far from the state's major cities, which are dominated by Pitt and by the Big Five in Philadelphia). For that reason, I have always viewed the Lions as an appealing underdog, and I hated to see that Geary Claxton, Penn State's 9th year senior, suffered a season- and career-ending knee injury. Claxton led Penn State with 17.5 points per game, and had improved his shooting significantly this year. He was at 50 percent for the season, as compared to a previous career high of 43.9, and was pulling down 8.4 rebounds per game. Penn State seemed to be turning a corner in 2006, when the Lions went 15-14 and qualified for the NIT, but Penn State slipped badly last year. This season, Penn State opened with road wins at Northwestern and Illinois, but lost a close home game to Minnesota before losing badly at home to Wisconsin in the game in which Claxton was injured.

Because of the sudden change in Penn State's team, the numbers may not be particularly useful. Penn State averages 66.1 possessions, sub-200 nationally. Offensively, Penn State doesn't shoot very well, but has a reasonably efficient offense (1.06 points per possession, #84 nationally) thanks to strong offensive rebounding (39.1 percent, #21 nationally) and taking care of the ball (18.1 turnover percentage, also #21 nationally). The Lions' worst offensive attribute is 59 percent free throw shooting.

On the defensive side, Penn State is above average in efficiency (.97 PPP, #95 nationally) and rebounds well (30.2, #59 nationally). Penn State has done this even though no one taller than 6-6 gets meaningful playing time for the Lions. On the other hand, Claxton was the team's leading rebounder, so it's unclear if Penn State's excellence in that category will continue.

The main story on the individuals in the absence of Claxton, and at this point it is unclear how Penn State will handle his loss. After a tough game in Minneapolis, this game should provide the Hoosiers a good opportunity to work on the issues that nearly cost IU that game.

Indiana 65, Minnesota 60.

This win feels like found money. I began mentally preparing myself to rationalize the loss several times during the game, most notably when the Gophers were up by four with 6:50 remaining and when they pulled ahead 60-58 with 1:49 to go. As we know, the Hoosiers scored the final seven points and held on to beat Minnesota in an arena where even the best Hoosier teams have struggled.

Here's the box score, which ought to be rated NC-17. Obviously, IU's turnovers were the big story. This was a 68 possession game, and IU turned the ball over 26 times, or 38.2 percent of the time. As I noted in my preview, the Gophers force turnovers better than nearly every team in the country, but IU's output was significantly higher than the 27 percent usually forced by the Gophers. Of the 341 teams tracked by Pomeroy, only two teams, Savannah State and Prairie View A&M, turn the ball over on even 30 percent of their possessions. In other words, while it's great that the Hoosiers won, this turnover problem simply has to get better if IU is going to beat any elite teams this season. Minnesota turned the ball over only 11 times, or 16 percent of the time. That means that Minnesota had 57 possessions on which it had the opportunity to score, and IU had 42. So how the hell did we win?

• Efficiency. IU scored 1.38 points per shot. Minnesota only 1.03.
• Three point shooting. IU was 9-22, Minnesota was 3-17.
• Free throws. IU was 12-14, Minnesota was 11-21, including 0-7 by Spencer Tollackson.
• Rebounding. IU corralled 40 percent of its OR opportunities, 11 of 27 misses. Minnesota grabbed only 10 of its 41 misses, 24 percent. This is why IU, despite 15 fewer non-turnover possessions, managed to close the gap a bit.

In sum, IU was significantly better than Minnesota in every meaningful category other than turnovers, enough to eek out a win despite dramatically fewer scoring opportunities than the Gophers. One interesting stat: IU was credited with assists on 18 of 22 made baskets, an absurdly high total for a team that ranks sub 200 in the category at about 55 percent. IU's 18/22 is about 81 percent. The nation's leader, Utah State, averages 72.3 percent. Perhaps the scorer at Minnesota is the long-lost twin of his counterpart at Texas A&M.

How about the individuals?

• Eric Gordon had his least productive game as a Hoosier. He was called for three fouls in the first half and played only nine minutes. Still, while his output of 12 points wasn't great, and his turnovers (7 in this game) remain a problem. He wasn't all that bad. He was 3-8 from the field, 2-6 from behind the arc, and 4-5 from the line. Gordon, thus far, has avoided what really consititutes a bad night for a guard, a 6-20, 14 point performance. Gordon does a good enough job of getting to the line (and shoots 85 percent there) that he seems nearly incapable of having a game in which he is a black hole.
• Jordan Crawford saved the day. I have noted before that Jordan really likes to shoot, and with Gordon on the bench for the last eight minutes of the first half, Crawford hit 4-5 three pointers (4-6 on the game). Overall, he scored 16 points on 12 shots.
• Jamarcus Ellis scored onlt 2 points and was 0-5 from the field, but he contributed elsewhere, with nine rebounds, 6 assists, and "only" two turnovers in 36 minutes (better than any other Hoosier ballhandler).
• DJ White was DJ White. 7-12, 10 rebounds, 17 points, 2 blocks. But you already knew that, even if you didn't watch the game. We have the two best players in the Big Ten, so we better win it this year.
• Deandre Thomas may have had the best line of the night. In 12 minutes, Thomas scored five points on two shots, two rebounds, no turnovers, one steal.
• Lance Stemler was perfect from the field: 8 points on 2-2 from three point range and from the line. His three pointer gave the Hoosiers their final lead of the game. Lance seems to have it back, finally.

Minnesota may not even be an NCAA Tournament team, but this feels like IU's best road win in some time. The Barn is tough on the Hoosiers, and the Gophers are well-coached and did a great job of exploiting IU's weaknesses, yet not effectively enough to win. Last year, the Hoosiers were 2-6 on the road in conference. This year, they are 3-0 already with trips to Evanston and State College remaining. Also, as I noted last night, the game at Wisconsin on January 31 is shaping up as a major showdown. Solid win, Hoosiers, but let's take better care of the ball in Madison and East Lansing.

Our ass.

That's where we found that one. I don't even want to see a highlight of that game ever again, but I don't think any IU team of the last 15 years would have found a way to win that one. The game highlighted the turnover issue that has plagued IU all year, but we shot reasonably well for most of the game and here we are, 15-1/4-0. With home games against Penn State and Iowa (and then a non-conference game at home against UConn), it seems likely that both IU and Wisconsin will be undefeated when the teams meet in Madison two weeks from tonight. More tomorrow.

The Minnesota game: the first real road test.

Minnesota Golden Gophers

Current record: 12-3

Big Ten record: 2-1

Current RPI: 53

Current Sagarin: 33

2006-07 record: 9-22

2006-07 RPI: 191

2006-07 Sagarin: 167

Series: IU leads 86-63

Last IU win: 2/21/07 (71-59 in Bloomington)

Last Minnesota win: 1/29/06 (61-42 in Minneapolis)

Last IU win in Minneapolis: 1/24/04 (86-81 in overtime)

TV: 9:00 pm tonight, ESPN

Pomeroy profile

Lighting round on this one. I put some of my thoughts in the Q&A with PJS, seen below and on the other site. My inclination that the Hoosiers are going to lose this game is based purely on hunch, not any sort of analysis. It's the pessimism bred by 15 years of never winning an outright Big Ten title and losing nearly every meaningful conference road game. I am hopeful that we can change that tonight.

I suppose it's at least worth noting that this would be the Gophers' best win of the season, by far. To date, the Gophers are 0-3 against the RPI top 100. All of the schedule strength ratings have Minnesota below IU. Nevertheless, the Gophers' tempo-free numbers are very good: #47 in offensive efficiency, #20 in defensive efficiency, #64 in offensive rebounding, top 80 in both shooting categories, #21 in assist ratio. The Gophers are only so-so at taking care of the ball, with a 21 percent turnover percentage (#137), but their opponents turn the ball over 27 percent of the time, #4 nationally. The Gophers also post top 20 totals in steal percentage and block percentage.

A big concern is that the Hoosiers, while still above average, have been worse on turnovers than in nearly any other offensive category, while Minnesota forces lots of turnovers. IU hasn't been a great defensive rebounding team, but Minnesota rebounds very well offensively. Statistically, both teams have been dominant against less-than-punishing schedules.

Many of the Gophers' names will sound familiar. The team's top three players, Dan Coleman, Lawrence McKenzie, and Spencer Tollackson, are all seniors. Watch out for freshman Blake Hoffarber, who is 40-81 from three point range. Dan Coleman and Damian Johnson look to be dominant shot-blockers.

I have expressed my pessimism, but I hope I'm wrong. As all of the Minnesota blogs have noted, Minnesota has won 8 of its last 10 home games in this series. Here's a depressing statistic that illustrates just how far the IU administration allowed the program to fall: Clem Haskins resigned in shame in 1999. After probation and rebuilding, the Gophers have made only one NCAA Tournament appearance. IU's record against Minnesota from 2000 to present? 6-7.

Chatting with the enemy: part 2 of exchange with PJS.

I exchanged some questions and answers with Paging Jim Shikenjanski, a fine Minnesota blog named after some goofy white boy who undoubtedly toched the Hoosiers for 30 back in the 1980s. You can read the first half of our exchange here (with pictures!). The second half is below.

On to my question, I've seen a bunch of games in Assembly Hall and a handful at Mackey Arena, but none in any other Big Ten venue. The only one that I am absolutely dying to see is the Barn. They aren't really going to replace it, are they? Didn't you guys learn your lesson with the football stadium? I haven't heard anything since Tubby's initial comments. How was the idea received by Minnesota fans?

PJS: Tubby is in the middle of one hell of a honeymoon period right now. And he used some of the capital that comes along with that to drop a bomb on many Minnesota fans. What was it? He suggested that the University ought to think long-term about replacing historical Williams Arena.

You're right to want to see a game there. The atmosphere can be electric when the team is playing well. The raised floor has a strange charm to it. And the building--though not without its drawbacks and blind spots--means more to many Minnesota basketball fans than any one coach will ever be. While this conversation came and went in the blogosphere and on the message boards quickly, it caused some online pundits I respect to say they'd rather jettison Tubby than raze the Barn if it came to that.

I personally don't agree with that position. Tubby is thinking about building Minnesota into a perennial national contender. To do that, he wants top notch facilities across the board. His first task is to bring Minnesota a practice facility on par with other top notch power conference schools. Eventually, he sees a day when a 14,000-plus arena will render a program non-competitive. I don't know if he is right or wrong, but I think most Minnesota fans would put up one hell of a fight if talk of replacing the Barn got serious. Me? I'm willing to listen. If there is a middle ground, a new Williams Arena, if we can keep the floor, I'd listen.

On to the game Thursday. It's nationally televised. The Gophers are returning home fresh off a confidence-boosting win on the road. Indiana is coming off a surprisingly hard fought game at home against Illinois. So, how did Illinois hang around? What did they do to slow Eric Gordon? And what do you see as Indiana's weaknesses? Where should Minnesota attack IU, and what types of defenses have slowed the Hoosiers so far?

It's clear from above and from my other posts about Illinois that I'm not a fan of Bruce Weber. I do respect him immensely as a coach, however. This year's Illinois team defends well, rebounds well, and takes care of the ball, but can't throw it in the ocean from the beach. I'm not much of an x's and o's guy, but I thought Illinois did a great job against Gordon, who hopefully learned that especially at home, he should take it to the basket constantly against an aggressive defensive team. At times it seemed like Illinois had seven guys on the floor: two on White, two on Gordon, man to man on everyone else. They did a great job doubling those guys whenever they had the ball. Also, Illinois made its first 6 shots and had a 13-4 lead four minutes into the game (those six field goals were nearly a third of the 19 Illinois hit in the game). Combine that with a below-average night from behind the arc, and the Hoosiers were forced into a nailbiter. If there is a knock on Sampson tactically, it's that his teams don't necessarily respond well to new or novel defenses and IU's best players are too prone to turnover problems. If I were coaching against IU I would take the kitchen sink approach and mix up the defensive looks to cause some discomfort (as if anyone could be "comfortable" playing on that platform!)

So, a little basketball talk back at you. What will Minnesota have to do to win? Which Gophers hold the key to defeating the Hoosiers?

PJS: The Gophers are going to need big games from a number of players to pull the upset. This starts with our trio of seniors. Of that group, Dan Coleman is the most talented of the bunch. He scores almost at will against inferior competition but tends to disappear in tight battles. During the Dan Monson era, Coleman played primarily on the perieter offensively despite playing power forward. Tubby Smith has worked to get Coleman to take the ball to the basket and attack. If Coleman is doing that, and getting to the foul line, I like our chances. Fellow seniors Lawrence McKenzie (who played for Sampson at Oklahoma before trasnferring to his home state) and Spencer Tollackson also need to find ways to score.

Aside from the seniors, the Gophers need freshman Blake Hoffarber, who is shooting an amazing 40-81 from three point range. If he gest hot, watch out. And his ability to hit from deep alone could open things up on the inside for the Gophers. I think you'll see Tubby change his defenses like you suggested above. He did that to much success during the 16-point comeback at Penn State last weekend. Tubby is known for his ball-line, hand-in-the-passing=lane defense that creates turnovers and easy points. Beacuse IU shoots well from outside and rebounds well, I don't see the Gophers playing too much zone.

More than anything else, the Gophers need to create turnovers. We don't have the playmaker like Eric Gordon who can score at will, so we need to create opportunities. If IU doesn't protect the ball, the Gophers can pull off this upset.

You have a prediction for Gophers fans who are all of a sudden thinking about an NCAA tournament berth?

HR: While the Xavier game that you mention was a neutral site game, IU has had only one road game against a respectable team, the win at disappointing Southern Illinois. As you note, the Barn has not been kind to the Hoosiers: the 50 point loss in 1994, the come-from-ahead loss to the probation-ravaged Gophers in 2000, the pathetic laydown in 2006...my hope is that this is the year that IU starts winning these games for the first time since the early 1990s. But until I see it, Minnesota 80, Indiana 72.

One final question and we can wrap this up: you allude to the Gopher's NCAA hopes. If my memory is correct, 2005 is the only time the Gophers have been there since the scandal. Will it happen in 2008?

PJS: NCAA? The optimist in me says yes. The Gophers could win 20 games. But the non-conference schedule didn't yield a good win. Without beating someone like Indiana, MSU or Wisconsin, I don't see it. If the Gophers win as you and I predict, the outlook will improve dramatically. I pick the Gophers over Indiana by two, 77-75.

Indiana 62, Illinois 58.

Sorry I'm late.

Billy Packer made an odd but accurate comment during Sunday's game, something like: "Illinois is a great team except that they can't shoot from the perimeter or the foul line." Shooting is an important part of the game, of course, but as I noted in my preview post, Packer is right, essentially. The Illini defend well, rebound well, and take care of the ball. If they could make baskets, they would have won a bunch more games, including Sunday's game. This deficiency also highlights why Illinois wanted Eric Gordon so badly. Win or lose, watching IU play Illinois during the Weber era has been very frustrating. The Illini do a great job of clogging up IU's offense.

Here's the box. The pace? We played the Illini's game, at roughly 62 possessions per team. That means the Hoosiers were at right around one point per possession, which is pretty low for a team averaging much more on the season. It's really uncanny just how similar the two teams' lines were in this game. IU and Illinois posted nearly identical totals in field goals made, field goals attempted, three point shooting, both rebounding categories, and turnovers. IU shot 25 free throws and made 18. Illinois shot 21 free throws and made 13. Really, that was the difference. Illinois took an early lead on the basis of uncharacteristically good shooting to start the game (6-6, and the Illini led 13-4 four minutes into the game). After that start, the Illini shot only 4-19 in the remainder of the first half and 13-43 (31 percent) for the rest of the game. I would love to say that IU's defense was suffocating. The defense was good, but this is a circumstance where stats don't tell the whole story. These guys just cannot shoot.

Individual performances:

• Ho hum. DJ White picked up another BTPOW award. After a 22-rebound performance at Michigan, White was his efficient self: 15 points on 9 shots, 5-6 from the line, 10 rebounds (close to a third of Illinois's 32 misses).
• Eric Gordon posted his usual "bad game" totals. Gordon was only 4-10 from the field but was 8-10 from the line and finished with 17 points. Again, too many turnovers (4), but this guy's ability to be productive even on bad shooting nights is what makes him one of the best players in the country.
• Mike White, in 19 minutes, posted a solid line: 4 points on three shots, 6 rebounds (the bad: 0-3 from the line).
• Armon Bassett was excellent in his return to meaningful action: 3-5 from the field including 3-4 from three point range, 11 points.
• Jamarcus Ellis struggled to 1-6 from the field and 3 turnovers.
• Jordan Crawford shot abysmally, four points on 2-8 from the field.
• AJ Ratliff, who has played well in some respects, can't quite find his shot. I'm sure he will.

Like all of IU's three Big Ten wins, IU won despite not playing particularly well. That will have to change Thursday at Minnesota.

BTB basketball poll, week 2.

1. Indiana (14-1, 3-0). Last week: 2. By default, really. IU and Wisconsin have played the same three teams. Wisconsin gets a slight edge on current resume, IU gets a bigger edge based on expectations and potential. This could change.
2. Wisconsin (13-2, 3-0). Last week: 3. The Badgers continue to roll, and had the league's best non-conference win over Texas.

3. Purdue (11-5, 2-1). Last week: 6. I don't expect the Boilers to remain this high, but their near-win at East Lansing and the fairly convincing home win over Ohio State puts the Boilers here for now.

4. Ohio State (12-4, 3-1). Last week: 4. Tough loss to Purdue, but the Buckeyes stay put, thanks to MSU's bad week.

5. Michigan State (14-2, 2-1). Last week: 1. It's hard to reconcile the Spartans' reputation and previous high ranking with the Purdue game or the awful loss at Iowa, a game where Iowa obviously controlled the pace.

6. Minnesota (12-3, 2-1). Last week: 5. The Gophers handed Penn State its first loss, and on the road. The only loss was a competitive game at MSU.

7. Penn State (10-5, 2-1). Last week: 7. The Lions must be disappointed that they dropped a winnable home game, but PSU remains firmly ahead of the Foul Four.

8. Iowa (8-9, 1-3). Last week: 9. Iowa could escape the bottom four if they keep playing tough defense and controlling the pace. They will have some good shooting nights, and the return of Tony Freeman seems to have helped the Hawkeyes.

9. Michigan (5-11, 1-3). Last week: 11. Well, it's something. I don't expect the Wolverines to remain ahead of Illinois, but for now, they have earned it with a road win.

10. Illinois (8-9, 0-4). Last week: 8. Illinois played well at IU, but 0-4 is 0-4. I think Illinois will creep back to number 8 as the season progresses.

11. Northwestern (5-8, 0-4). Last week: 10. Bill Carmody has to be in trouble, right? I really thought he would succeed at NU, but he certainly looks like a man with a pink slip in his near future. Where will NU go from here?

The Illinois game.

Illinois Fighting Illini

Current record: 8-8

Big Ten record: 0-3

Current RPI: 114

Current Sagarin: 93

2006-07 record:

2006-07 RPI: 30

2006-07 Sagarin: 51

Series: IU leads 81-77

Last IU win: 2/12/07, 65-61 in Bloomington

Last Illinois win: 3/9/07, 58-54 (OT) in Chicago (BTT quarterfinals)

Last Illinois win in Bloomington: 2/3/04 (51-49)

TV: 4:30 pm, CBS

Pomeroy profile

Eric Gordon's decision to decommit from Illinois and simultaneously commit to IU, back in October 2006, had wide-ranging repercussions. Kelvin Sampson, tarnished by Phonegate I, had instant credibility with IU fans. Many opposing fans and coaches, including Bruce Weber, criticized Sampson for breaking the "unwritten rules" that require a coach to be more loyal to the coaching fraternity than to the university that is paying him over a million dollars a year. Illinois fans reacted with particular venom, egged on by the compliant downstate Illinois media, including Illinois's head cheerleader Mark Tupper and most infamously, Bill Liesse of the Peoria Journal Star. The paper no longer hosts the article on its website, but here's what Liesse, a middle aged sports editor, had to say about a 17 year old kid who changed his mind about where to attend college:

Now that Eric Gordon has decided he wants to wear candystripe pants and play for a coach (Kelvin Sampson) who has as much to do with the NHL as he does the NBA, we thought we'd dedicate this week's (NFL) Lines to that steaming pile of two-guard.

There's no doubt that when IU plays at Illinois, the media and the Orange Krush and Bruce Weber will have the arena whipped in to a frenzy. I'm glad Gordon gets to break the ice against Weber and the Illini in more friendly surroundings.

History

Currently, IU leads all Big Ten schools in the all-time series except Purdue. Other than Purdue, Illinois is the closest. Since Lou Henson retired, IU is only 7-16 against the Illini. IU was 2-6 against Lon Kruger, 3-4 against Bill Self, and 2-6 against Bruce Weber. IU hasn't won at Champaign since 1999. Especially, IU has struggled to a 1-6 record against Illinois in the Big Ten Tournament. There have only been ten Big Ten Tournaments, so that means Illinois has eliminated IU more often than every other team combined. IU needs a winning streak against the Illini.

It also helps that the Illini aren't much of a team this year. Illinois started fairly well. Although they were only 6-3 after their first nine games, Illinois beat Arizona State and Oklahoma State and lost to three respectable teams in road/neutral games: Duke, Arizona, and Maryland (they also had a later win against Missouri). In the last three weeks, the wheels have fallen off: the Illini lost home non-conference games to Miami of Ohio and Tennessee State and have opened 0-3 in the Big Ten, including home losses to Ohio State and Penn State.

Team stats

As I mentioned earlier in the week, the Illini have one of the toughest conference schedules and don't even get a quasi-home game in Evanston this year. The Illini certainly have had some respectable wins, but do not seem to be improving. The Illini's 64.3 possession pace is #289 nationally, and their 1.07 points per shot is slightly below average (although when adjusted for their tough schedule, the Illini rank #70). The Illini don't shoot terribly well, and their 29 percent three point percentage is one of the worst in the nation. The Illini do take care of the ball (ranking very high in steal percentage and turnover percentage offensively) and are a strong offensive rebounding team. So, while the Illini maximize their possessions, they don't shoot well and don't get to the line. Our Big Ten rivals like to complain that no one gets to the line in Assembly Hall, so it would be surprising if the Illini do so tomorrow.

On the defensive side, the Illini are #72 in raw efficiency and #35 in adjusted efficiency. The Illini are an interesting case. Their opponents get to the line quite a bit (the Illini are #325 in defensive free throws allowed percentage) but are great in traditional shooting percentage measures. Illinois allows only 30 percent (#32 nationally) in three point shooting and 43 percent (#55 nationally) two point shooting,

I'll try to check back later with some discussion of the individuals.

The BTB conference poll: a closer look.

While polls don't matter all that much in football, the Big Ten Bloggers, under the able leadership of Gopher Nation on a project originally conceived by Maize-n-Brew, are participating in a weekly Big Ten Power Poll. Check out the results here. GN's post also contains links to all of the participants.

One of the oddities of the Big Ten last year is that it was so stratified. As I said last February:

This isn't an original thought (I think I owe IUTerry a hat tip), but it is worth noting: the Big Ten's various "tiers" are extremely well defined this year. Ohio State (14-1) and Wisconsin (12-3) are the top tier; Minnesota (3-12), Northwestern (2-12), and Penn State (1-13) are the bottom tier; and Illinois (9-6), IU (8-6), Iowa (8-6), Michigan State (8-7), Michigan (8-7), and Purdue (7-7) are the middle tier. What is so unusual isn't that there are obvious dividing points, but that the outcomes are almost entirely predictable by tier. Ohio State and Wisconsin went 1-1 against each other and 24-2 against the rest of the league. Wisconsin lost at IU and and at MSU. The bottom tier's results are nearly as uniform. Minnesota, Northwestern, and Penn State have combined for six wins. Purdue's loss at the Barn is the only win that the "little three" have claimed against any team but each other, at home or on the road. The muddled six have held serve against each other, winning at home and losing on the road, almost as a rule. Iowa won at Michigan, and that's it [actually, after this post, Iowa lost to Penn State]. As I type this post, Michigan is finishing a home win over MSU.

It's not particularly noteworthy that those tiers exist right now, only two or three games into the Big Ten season. But in this week's voting, there seems to be some solid consensus.

1. Tier one: Michigan State, Indiana, Wisconsin. On the ballots I could find, every single voter had these three teams as the top three.

2. Tier two: Ohio State, Minnesota, Purdue, Penn State. Nearly every ballot (see below re Off the Tracks) listed these teams in slots four through seven. Of the four, only Ohio State would seem to be a realistic threat to break into championship contention.

3. Tier Illinois: Illinois. With the exception of Off the Tracks, which seemed to have the Illini in the middle somewhere (his numbers didn't match the order), every ballot listed Illinois precisely eighth. No one really expected the Illini to be as bad as that of the conference dregs, but their performance has been very dreg-like so far, with home losses to two middle tier teams (Ohio State and Penn State). It wouldn't be a surprise if Illinois salvages its season, but right now the Illini, if record is compared to strength of schedule and home/away, have been worse than anyone else.

4. Tier hopeless: Iowa, Northwestern, Michigan. All of these teams are winless, and none have much hope of postseason play. Every ballot lists these teams as the bottom three.

Again, it's early, but I'll keep an eye on this as the season progresses. There aren't many surprises in the poll right now. I have no argument with IU's position at #2. It's where I voted the Hoosiers. I do disagree with the voters who docked IU for the margin of victory against Iowa. IU didn't dominate Iowa, but with 2:10 remaining, IU led 70-57 and had held Iowa to 26 percent shooting on the half. IU's offense did not shut down at that point. The Hoosiers scored 9 more points. But thanks to the most improbably amazing three point shooting I have seen, Iowa pulled to within three and actually had the ball with a chance to tie before committing a turnover as time expired. Justin Johnson was 6-6 from three point range in the last two minutes and added a free throw for all 19 of Iowa's points in that last two minutes. The final score was an outlier, and if the game were played 20 times it wouldn't play out like that again. To be clear, I voted IU #2, so I have no problem with the ranking, but the Iowa margin of victory should be a major consideration.

Progress on BTN-Comcast front?

Ah, for the halcyon days of summer, when no games were played and the then-unseen Big Ten Network was a daily obsession of this blog. Per this post from mgoblog, the Chicago Tribune reports optimism, progress, productive conversations, etc., between the BTN and Comcast, the midwest's largest cable provider. Ed Sherman of the Trib surmises that that the BTN must have come off of its $1.10 asking price. That goes in the "no shit, Sherlock" category. BTN officials have made clear, on numerous occasions, that the $1.10 figure is at most a "sticker price." And in the post linked above, Brian indicates that over the summer, a Comcast official acknowledged that the company might pay 25 cents a subscriber for BTN placement on expanded basic. So, the number resides somewhere in between $.25 and $1.10, and it's about damn time they find it. As Sherman's article notes, the BTN has 60 days remaining of basketball coverage, which is the BTN's main bargaining chip, and then nearly five months of Olympic sports before football starts. Comcast is big enough to tolerate some loss of subscribers, but my anecdotal contribution to this whole affair is that I have a fairly short commute, but see an AT&T Uverse truck nearly every day. They need each other.

Also, mgoblog's post is worth a look for the discussion of Jay Bilas's unprofessional reaction to Michigan's highly justifiable firing of Bilas's old teammate Tommy Amaker. Most of the time, Bilas is one of the best college basketball analysts around and one of the few tolerable voices at ESPN, but Michigan fans are right to be pissed about this. Tommy Amaker's teams played like garbage and he's a few million richer for having failed at Michigan. He has a coaching job, he's young, and he has the Duke connections. If he's any good, he'll have the chance to prove it in the future, even without Jay Bilas sacrificing his integrity to rehabilitate his buddy's (deservedly) bad reputation.

Indiana 78, Michigan 64.

Like the win at Iowa, this one wasn't pretty, but IU managed to beat an undermanned opponent. The Hoosiers, now 13-1 overall and 2-0 in the Big Ten, have matched their conference road win total from last year, when the Hoosiers managed to win only at Penn State and Northwestern. Here's the box score. My quick impressions:

• Pace: 73 possessions. Definitely more IU's game than Michigan's.
• Eric Gordon's most formidable opponent for Big Ten player of the year honors may be his own teammate. DJ White scored 21 points on 13 shots and grabbed 22 rebounds, the most by any Hoosier since Alan Henderson has 28 rebounds in 1992. Certainly, that number is skewed a bit by Michigan's terrible shooting, but White's total included 8 offensive rebounds. On his own, White rebounded 32 percent of Michigan's missed shots and 20 percent of IU's missed shots.
• Despite a very low number of free throw attempts (1-2), Eric Gordon managed 23 points on 16 shots, thanks to 4-7 from three point range. He turned the ball over 5 times, however, which will have to get better as the quality of IU's competition improves.
• Jamarcus Ellis scored 7 points on 5 shots and had 6 assists and one turnover.
• Jordan Crawford is taking a much deserved beating for his first half play, but he did seem to tone it down in the second half. Crawford was only 5-15 from the field and turned the ball over 7 times.
• My sense in watching the game was that IU was moving the ball pretty well and the box score supports that: 18 assists on 30 field goals. Playing against a zone will do that, I suppose. On the other side, Michigan had 17 assists on 19 field goals.
• While Crawford is taking much of the beating, AJ Ratliff still hasn't found his shot. Only three points on 6 shots. He did have six assists, however.
• Lance Stemler hit a contested three pointer.
• I was glad that Sampson chewed out Brandon McGee for his stupid (and poorly executed) dunk attempt, but Michigan, which was pressing while down 17 and with Adam Ahlfeld in the game for IU, has no standing to complain (and Beilein didn't seem all that upset about it).
• Michigan shot only 31 percent. IU's defense was okay, but the Wolverines missed loads of open shots. Not a single Wolverine shot 50 percent from the field. Of the eight Michigan players who took four or more shots, only four made more than one shot.
• Manny Harris was about to form. Just a hair over a point per shot, despite poor shooting from the field and because of free throws.
• Deshawn Sims made the most memorable shot of the night (the half-ending three pointer from beyond halfcourt) but produced five of Michigan's turnovers all by himself.
• Michigan's best shooter, Kelvin Grady, followed the team trend and wasn't very good: 3 points on 1-5 from the field.

Well? A win, and more comfortable than the last one. I don't know that we learned much about the Hoosiers last night. As noted above, we are off to a good start on the road in the Big Ten, but the atmospheres at Carver-Hawkeye and Crisler aren't what they used to be. The Barn next Thursday will be a different story. The Hoosiers play Illinois before that, however.

The Michigan game: the roster.

To the extent that anyone is saying anything nice about Michigan's basketball team, the praise tends to be centered on freshman Corperryale "Manny" Harris. Harris was an IU recruiting target, and my recollection is that his decision to spurn IU (I believe he made his decision before it was clear that Eric Gordon was going to come to IU) was met with much consternation. Certainly, Harris, a 6-5 guard, has quite a bit of potential, but Harris's production hasn't necessarily been good production. On the season, Harris is shooting 38 percent and 26 percent from three point range. When at his best, Harris has been able to get to the free throw line, and shoots 75 percent from the line. In two Big Ten games, Harris is 12/29 overall and 2/10 from three point range. Harris's best games, in terms of scoring output, have been against Oakland, Western Kentucky, and Purdue. He shot poorly from the field in all three games, but got to the line effectively in all three games. Harris is a talent, but even with his good free throw shooting, Harris's effective field goal percentage is only 41.3, compared to 59.2 for Gordon. So let's dial the comparisons back a notch. Harris's assist numbers are good, especially considering how many of Michigan's shots he takes, but he turns the ball over even more often. In short, Manny Harris is likely to be a very good player, but will be back at Michigan next year.

The Wolverines' most efficient regular is Deshawn Sims, a 6-8 forward who shoots 38 percent from three point range. Sims has an EFG% of 54.2. Ekpe Udoh, a 6-10 sophomore, averages 3 blocks a game, and Pomeroy's per possession rankings have him #13 nationally in blocks. As an offensive player...well, did I mention the shot blocking? Statistically, the most intriguing Wolverine is 5-11 freshman guard Kelvin Grady. Grady averages only 6.2 points per game in 22 minutes per game, but is making the most of his time. He shoots 47 percent from the field, including 42 percent from three point range (where he takes the majority of his shots). Despite no significant presence at the free throw line (he's 9-9 on the season), Grady's EFG% is 62.5. Considering the way Beilein's teams at WVU shot three pointers, I would bet that in two years everyone in the Big Ten will hate Grady's guts.

As Maize-n-Brew notes, Michigan is down several scholarship players. Two guys who were on the team at the beginning of the season, Jerret Smith and K'Len Morris, have left. Two other players, Reed Baker and Kendric Price, left in the offseason. John Beilein doesn't have much to work with this year, but he has two freshmen who should make Michigan better soon. Hopefully not tonight.

Basketball odds and ends.

• John Gasaway at Basketball Prospectus takes a quick look at the Big Ten contenders, as well as the other conferences.
• This was written before Michigan's game at Purdue, but Maize-n-Brew takes a hard look at the statistical reality of the Wolverine program. He also discusses the serious attrition of the last few months, not unusual for a program with a new coach.
• Armon Bassett likely will not play against Michigan because of bone chips in his ankle. Obviously, this may be an issue for the rest of the season.

The Michigan game: tempo free, etc.

Michigan Wolverines

Current record: 4-10

Big Ten record: 0-2

Current RPI: 170

Current Sagarin: 173

2006-07 record: 21-12 (8-8); lost to Florida State in second round of NIT

2006-07 RPI: 54

2006-07 Sagarin: 56

Series: IU leads 97-52

Last IU win: 1/27/07 (76-61 in Bloomington)

Last Michigan win: 2/17/07 (58-55 in Ann Arbor)

Last IU win in Ann Arbor: 3/4/06 (69-67)

TV: 7 pm, ESPN

Pomeroy profile

Blogs: mgoblog, Maize n Brew, Michigan Sports Center

Last year's loss at Crisler Arena snapped an eleven game IU winning streak against Michigan and a four game winning streak for IU in Ann Arbor. Like most other Big Ten fans, I'll miss Tommy Amaker. His soft, underachieving teams were a thing of beauty to those of us who have never quite moved beyond our Michigan-hatred formed during the Fab Five era. I don't expect Michigan to be any such pushover as the Beilein era progresses, but this year's team might be the worst Michigan team in decades. In their defense, the Wolverines have played, by any measure, one of the nation's toughest schedules. Michigan has lost to Georgetown, Butler, Boston College, Duke, UCLA, and Wisconsin (all by at least 13). Any team could lose to those teams. Losses to Western Kentucky, Harvard (coached by Tommy Amaker!), and Central Michigan are tougher to justify.

I enrolled at IU in the fall of 1992, when both IU and Michigan were at the top of the college basketball world. Both teams were ranked in the preseason top five and both returned nearly every contributor from Final Four teams. Michigan, with all of the Fab Five returning as sophomores, was ranked #1 in the preseason AP poll and the Hoosiers were #4. Because of the high ticket demand that year, IU students received tickets to only four home games each. Tickets were allocated on a random basis, meaning the last person in line might get better tickets than the first person in line. I remember waiting in line for tickets and watching the reactions of the students in front of me. Each recipient reacted with a celebration or a profane outburst, depending entirely on whether a ticket to the Michigan game was in the allotment (yes, I got one, 35th row East Main). So, despite the demise of Michigan's program in the last decade, I am subconsciously programmed to think of IU-Michigan as a big game, and I still get butterflies when I see Michigan on the court with IU, at least when the Wolverines wear the maize jerseys. My personal favorite IU games at Crisler:

• The 1993 game. During the aforementioned 1992-1993 season, IU won both of the matchups by one point. That doesn't really tell the story of the game in Bloomington. IU led that game by ten with about a minute remaining but Chris Webber made three 3-pointers in the last minute, including one as time expired, to tighten things up at the end, but IU was in no real danger of losing at the end. The game in Ann Arbor, on the other hand, was every bit as close as the score would indicate. As the linked article says, Alan Henderson blocked Chris Webber's attempted putback and IU escaped with a one point win and ultimately won the Big Ten with a 17-1 record.
• The 1997 game. This IU team ultimately disappointed, but not nearly as much as the Wolverines. This was Steve Fisher's last Michigan team, and despite a roster that included Robert Traylor and Maurice Taylor, the Wolverines somehow ended up in the NIT. The IU game certainly contributed to the Wolverines' demise. IU trailed by 20 early in the second half but worked back to within three points at the end of the second half. Freshman AJ Guyton, who scored 31 points in the game, buried a three pointer with 2.1 seconds remaining to send the game to overtime. I have linked the Michigan Daily's coverage above. Bob Knight said that other than Keith Smart's shot in the 1987 NCAA title game, "[t]hat's as good a play as I've ever had a kid make under that kind of pressure."

Unfortunately for the Wolverines, Chris Webber isn't walking through that door. None of Michigan's tempo-free numbers look particularly good, although the tough schedule means that the adjusted numbers are prettier than the raw numbers. Michigan's raw offensive efficiency rank is #177, but adjusted it's a respectable #102. While the Wolverines don't shoot particularly well, they take care of the ball (19.9 turnover percentage, #69 nationally; 8.1 steal percentage, #45 nationally). Michigan capitalizes on 35.1 percent of offensive rebound opportunities, #116 nationally. Defensively, it's uglier. Michigan allows 1.08 points per possession (#302 nationally), and even the weighted defensive efficiency number ranks #183 nationally. The Wolverines block a lot of shots (#30 nationally per possession) and keep opponents from getting to the line (#17 nationally). The low number of freethrow attempts may be attributable to the Wolverines' part-time use of Beilein's famous 1-3-1 zone. On the flip side, Michigan's opponents shoot over 42 percent from behind the arc (that's #329, almost dead last nationally), so why take it to the hoop?

For an update on IU's tempo-free numbers, go here. Of course, IU's strength offensively has been getting to the free throw line (IU is #2 nationally in free throws made per possession), while Michigan opponents haven't been able to do so. Despite the excellence of Eric Gordon, IU has been a good but not overwhelming three point shooting team (37.4, #90 nationally) and only 30 percent of IU's attempts are three point shots (#255 nationally). IU ranks #20 in both 2-point field goal percentage and free throw percentage. On the defensive side, IU again is above average nationally across the board, but the Hoosiers' weakest category defensively is turnover percentage. IU should win this game, but it seems that Michigan's strength (taking care of the ball) lines up against IU's defensive weakness. And while Michigan isn't a good defensive team, the Wolverines have lost because of opponents' three point shooting, which hasn't been the dominant focus of IU's offense. It will be interesting to see whose game these teams play.

I'll discuss Michigan's roster tomorrow.

First weekly Big Ten power poll.

Those of us from the Big Ten Bloggers group who write about basketball are going to introduce a weekly Big Ten poll. I suppose by the end it will resemble the standings.

Before I start, if you have any interest in presidential politics (and if you are reading this you must care about Big Ten basketball) the post by Hawkeye State at Black Heart Gold Pants is a must read.

Anyway:

1. Michigan State (13-1, 1-0). I think the Hoosiers have an excellent chance to move past MSU this year, but at this point, the Spartans have better wins and a less decisive loss. This is a close call.

2. Indiana (12-1, 1-0). It really isn't IU's fault that Kentucky stinks, SIU is disappointing, and the Big Ten/ACC opponent was uninspiring. Still, MSU has accomplished more at this point.

3. Wisconsin (12-2, 2-0). I really thought that this would be the year that the Badgers would drop off, but the renaissance continues for what was for decades the worst non-Northwestern program in the conference. While IU and MSU play twice, Wisconsin does not have to go to East Lansing, so don't be surprised if the Badgers sneak into the #1 seed in the BTT.

4. Ohio State (11-3, 2-0). The Buckeyes have lost to three good teams (Texas A&M, UNC, Butler), but lost convincingly to all three. The Bucks did beat Florida and Syracuse and currently respectable Illinois.

5. Minnesota (10-3, 0-1). Minnesota was solid in the pre-conference, but didn't beat anyone of note. I'm giving the Gophers a slight bump for playing so well against MSU at Breslin, but I reserve the right to drop them soon and fast.

6. Purdue (10-4, 1-0). Purdue looked great in its signature non-conference win against Louisville, but the Boilers' losses to Wofford and Iowa State keep Purdue out of the top half of this poll and may keep Purdue out of the NCAA Tournament. The Boilers have lots of young talent, and they could move either direction.

7. Penn State (10-4, 2-0). This is another team that could move up or down quickly. I thought 5-7 were tough to distinguish. PSU, with the exception of its Big Ten/ACC win over VT, didn't beat anyone of note in the pre-conference, but opened 2-0 in the Big Ten with two on the road. The Lions have a week to get ready for Minnesota at home, and could move up quickly.

8. Illinois (8-7, 0-2). The Illini continue their post-2005 slide. Illinois lost at home to Penn State today, opening with two killer home losses. I'm sure that anguished Illini fans will suggest that two Native Americans who weren't at the game, Kelvin Sampson and Chief Illiniwek, have something to do with today's loss. Illinois still has eight conference road games left and the one-game opponents are Iowa and Northwestern. I-L-L! N-I-T!

9. Iowa (7-8, 0-2). The Hawkeyes play solid defense and if Todd Lickliter can find some offense, they will beat someone good this year, and I'm glad the Hoosiers played them on the road early. Still, the resume is very weak and I can't justify ranking them any higher.

10. Northwestern (5-6, 0-2). Another year, and the Wildcats, who haven't played in the NCAA tournament ever, are 0-2 in the conference. The Wildcats play a couple of non-conference games during the Big Ten season, so the win total won't be as low as it seems now, but losing at home to Penn State suggests that NU won't be making history this year.

11. Michigan (4-10, 0-2). Wow. Until I started working on my preview for Tuesday's game I really didn't realize how bad Michigan is. Purdue probably should be knocked down a couple pegs just for letting the Wolverines compete. They have played a tough schedule, but have lost by double digits to every respectable team they have played. As with Iowa, this team, with a respected new coach, could improve significantly. But right now, they make Northwestern look good.

More Iowa post mortem.

I didn't get the chance to mention any of the individual performances when I posted on this game a couple of days ago.

• DJ White shot more poorly than he has in a white, only 6-13 from the field, but still managed 16 points and 15 rebounds.
• Jamarcus Ellis was fantastic. 15 points on 10 shots, 7 assists, one turnover.
• Gordon posted his usual, ho-hum, 25 points on 12 shots. The Christmas break version of Carver Hawkeye isn't exactly imposing, but it's nice to see that Gordon was able to get to the line on the road in the Big Ten.
• Those two three pointers must have been well-timed, because I was stunned to read that Freeman was only 3-14 from the field. But until Justin Johnson's outburst, he was Iowa's leading scorer. That says something about IU's defense for the most part.

Hardy to NFL.

To no one's surprise, James Hardy will enter the 2008 NFL Draft instead of returning to IU for his senior season. In just three years at IU, Hardy became IU's career leader in receiving yards, receptions, and touchdown receptions. Hardy has been integral to the improvement of IU's program, and while the cupboard is not bare at WR, Kellen Lewis and the rest of the offense will be in a different position next year without the 6-7 deep threat.

Indiana 79, Iowa 76.

The Hoosiers struggled early but seemed to put the game away late in the second half before Iowa's Justin Johnson single-handedly brought the Hawkeyes back into the game, which ended only when IU managed to steal the ball as Iowa passed up the court. Had Johnson ended up with the ball, overtime seemed likely. Here's the box score.

After an Eric Gordon freethrow with 2:10 remaining, IU led 70-57. The Hoosiers didn't exactly shut things down, (IU scored nine points in the last two minutes of the game), yet Iowa still nearly came all the way back. Johnson scored 19 points in the last 1:55, including 6-6 from three point range and a free throw that turned one of the shots into a four point play. Probably the worst that can be said of the Hoosiers in this sequence is that they allowed three offensive rebounds in the last two minutes and shot only 9-14 from the line. Still, Johnson's heroic effort nearly saved the day.

Even with the finish, IU managed a fairly effective second half defense. Iowa shot only 37 percent (13-35) in the second half. Before the 6-10 finish, Iowa was only 7-25 in the first 18 minutes of the half.

This was a fast paced game for Iowa (about 72 possessions per team), and each team obviously was just above one point per possession.

I'm short on time, so I'll look at this one more later (IU doesn't play again until Tuesday at Michigan). Yesterday, I said that I thought IU was in trouble in the case of a close game. While Iowa was quite competitive for much of the game, I was fairly content with the performance when the score was 70-57, and I'm not sure that the flukish finish should be given all that much weight. More later.

The Iowa game.

Iowa Hawkeyes

Current Record: 7-6

Big Ten record: 0-0

Current RPI: 234

Current Sagarin: 197

2006-07 record: 17-14 (9-7 in Big Ten, no postseason)

2006-07 RPI: 97

2006-07 Sagarin: 78

Series: IU leads 91-68

Last meeting: Iowa 81, IU 75 (2/3/07 at Iowa)

Last IU win: 71-64 (in Bloomington, 1/16/07)

Last IU win at Iowa City: 2/19/03 (79-63)

Blog: Black Heart Gold Pants

Iowa is not a good team. The Hawks are 7-6 against what Pomeroy rates as the #276 schedule in the country. As noted above, Iowa enters Big Ten play with Sagarin and RPI numbers more appropriate for a team from the SWAC or the Ivy League. Pomeroy predicts a 4-14 conference record for Iowa, and give the Hawks better-than-even odds only in their home games against Northwestern and Michigan.

Iowa cannot resist hiring coaches with ties to Indiana (the state, not the the university). After forcing out consistently above average Tom Davis, Iowa handed the reins to former IU great Steve Alford. Alford's record at Iowa was decent, but not as good as his predecessor's. He also seemed to wear out his welcome in Iowa City based on various personality and off-the-court issues (most notably his coddling of sex offender Pierre Pierce). Now, the Hawkeyes have replaced Alford with former Butler coach Todd Lickliter. Lickliter, a Butler alum and assistant under Barry Collier and Thad Matta, didn't build the Bulldogs from scratch but did preside over the school's greatest moments since the Tony Hinkle era. So far, Iowa is playing to the mid-major stereotype. Iowa is very slow (60.8 possessions per game, nearly dead last in Division I). Last season, Lickliter's excellent Butler team averaged only 58.4 possessions per game. Iowa is excellent defensively (allowing only .91 points per possession and a 44.2 effective field goal percentage, both in the top 50 in Division I), like Lickliter's last Butler team. Unlike the 2007 Bulldogs, Iowa has been awful on the offensive end, averaging a sub-200 .951 points per shot and only 50 percent effective field goal percentage, #162 nationally. The Hawkeyes turn the ball over on 27.5 percent of their possessions, again, almost dead last nationally (#332). This is in complete contrast to last year's Butler team, which led the nation with a 15.5 offensive turnover percentage. In short, the Hawkeyes are defending well, but offensively bear no resemblance to Lickliter's best Butler teams.

In addition to adjusting to a new coach and system, the Hawkeyes just don't have much experience. Of Iowa's five leaders in minutes played, three are freshman. The top two returnees in minutes played, Justin Johnson and Kurt Looby, ranked #4 and #8 in that category last year. Tyler Smith, who was Iowa's second leading scorer, transferred to Tennessee, in part because of his ailing father. Tony Freeman, son of the former Hoosier of the same name, has played only three games because of a foot injury. Still, other than a road win against Northern Iowa (#107 in the RPI), the Hawkeyes don't have anything approximating a quality win and have lost to such powers as Louisiana Monroe and Utah State.

While Iowa should improve as the season and years go by, this one goes in the Penn State/Northwestern category this season. It's an outstanding opportunity to pick up a Big Ten road win. If IU loses or wins a close one, be concerned about the Hoosiers' status as a Big Ten front-runner.

I do hope to give basketball matchups more attention than this as the season transpires, but the Insight Bowl and the holiday made it impossible this time.

Oklahoma State 49, Indiana 33.

The Hoosiers' return to postseason play was an important outcome on its own, but IU was dominated by Oklahoma State, which should provide the team with plenty of offseason motivation. Here's the box score. Anyone who watched the game knows that the final score doesn't really reflect the full extent of OSU's dominance.

IU moved the ball respectably on the first drive but settled for a field goal. The next time IU managed a first down, the score was already 21-3. IU had a decent drive but failed on the fourth down conversion and the game essentially was over at that point. I thoughy an early killer play was the facemask on Tracy Porter, which turned a 7 yard loss on second down into an OSU first down when IU still led 3-0. Certainly, OSU was a better team and likely would have won anyway, but any kind of a stop early on might have taken the pressure off the offense. Still, as bad as the IU defense was, it's hard to explain IU's lack of success against what during the regular season was a terrible OSU pass defense.

If this is James Hardy's last game as a Hoosier, he should be proud of his outstanding career, but nothing about his final game will make any sort of highlight reel. Hardy missed some catchable balls early that might have changed the direction of the game.

The statistics were deceptively close. OSU outgained IU 513-399. OSU had the advantage in yards per play, 6.2 to 5.2. IU ran the ball effectively, although that mostly was a result of some long Lewis scrambles. IU won the turnover battle 2-0, which further highlights the Cowboys' dominance. In the first half, IU gained 156 yards and OSU 327. That really tells the story more than the final stats.

I really have to wonder how in the world OSU lost six games. Zac Robinson is an amazing talent, and freshman receiver Dez Bryant, who I didn't even mention in any preview post, is going to be a star.

This was a good season. Because of the offseason turmoil involving the absence and eventual death of Terry Hoeppner, most pundits picked the Hoosiers to finish at or near the bottom of the standings. Certainly, IU played a favorable schedule, but managed to win seven games and produce the first winning season since 1994 and first bowl since 1993. IU sold the vast majority of its ticket allotment and it was great to see the sizable group of fans that followed the Hoosiers to Arizona. Hopefully, in terms of player development, recruiting, and fan support, 2007 and the Insight Bowl will be a first step for IU's program.

Gameday!

Here's a nice preview from Pete Fiutak of Fox Sports, even if he does pick the Cowboys. OSU remains approximately a 4.5 point favorite, which, given OSU's high-production offense and the tougher schedule, is fair.

It looks like a nice day in the Valley of the Sun. Sunny, with the high of 65 occurring around kickoff time.

Some last minute, trivial odds and ends:

• Technically, this is IU's first game against the Big 12 Conference. Although the Big 12 is the obvious successor to the Big 8, technically (and much to the chagrin of the Big 8 holdovers) the Big 12 is a new conference that began play in 1996. IU's last game against a current Big 12 member was in 1992, a 20-10 win over Missouri in Bloomington. That was the last game of an eight year series against the Tigers, and the Hoosiers were 6-0-2 against Mizzou during that stretch. IU's last loss to a current Big 12 member was a loss to Colorado in 1979. IU has a modest 2 game winning streak against the Big 12 members (the 1992 Missouri game and the 1991 Copper Bowl against Baylor) and a ten game unbeaten streak.
• IU has a respectable 25-17-6 record against current Big 12 members. IU has never played Iowa State, Texas A&M, or Texas Tech.
• Believe it or not, IU's 9 wins against Nebraska are the most wins IU has against any major non-conference opponent other than Kentucky.
• IU's only previous game against Oklahoma State was in 1930, a 7-7 tie in Bloomington against what then was known as Oklahoma A&M.
• Oklahoma State is 1-8-1 against Big Ten opponents. The Cowboys have never played Illinois, Michigan State, Northwestern, Penn State, or Wisconsin. The only OSU win over a Big Ten school was a 6-0 win over Iowa in 1930, the same year that the Hoosiers and the Cowboys tied.
• Two of OSU's 17 bowl appearances have been against Big Ten schools: the Cowboys lost 33-20 to Purdue in the 1997 Alamo Bowl and 33-7 to Ohio State in the 2004 Alamo Bowl.
• The 1991 Copper Bowl against Baylor (then of the Southwest Conference) is IU's only postseason appearance against a current Big 12 team.

Meet the Cowboys.

Just about 24 hours until the Insight Bowl kicks off. I've discussed OSU's team stats, but here are the individuals worth watching tomorrow.

Zac Robinson, sophomore quarterback. Robinson emerged as OSU's starter early in the season and has become a reliable dual threat for the Cowboys. Robinson completed 59.2 percent of his passes and threw for 20 touchdowns and 8 interceptions. Robinson ran for seven touchdowns and was OSU's second leading rusher with 77 yards (6.2 yards per attempt). Quite remarkably, Robinson was sacked only seven times. For reference, Kellen Lewis, whose numbers are comparable otherwise, was sacked 29 times.

Dantrell Savage, senior running back. Savage came to OSU as a juco transfer and has a solid 1992 rushing yards in his two year career. This season, Savage played in only 10 games, but ran for 1172 yards and 5.9 yards per carry. He scored 8 touchdowns and caught 25 passes for 258 yards. Other than a respectable 10/55 performance in the opener against Georgia, Savage has broken the 100 yard barrier in every game he has played, and never did worse than 4.4 yards per carry. The OSU rushing game is formidable.

Kendall Hunter, freshman running back. Hunter is a true freshman, and while his playing time has been sporadic, he has 663 yards rushing and 6.7 yards per carry. All of Hunter's good games were in September and October, so perhaps he hit the freshman wall, but he, Robinson, and Savage present a challenge for IU's less than stellar run defense.

Adarius Bowman, senior receiver. Bowman missed the Cowboys' last two games with an injury, but will play in the Insight Bowl. In ten games, Bowman caught 61 balls for 932 yards and 7 touchdowns. He was even better as a junior, with 1161 yards and 12 touchdowns. Bowman is 6-4 and so the media has been all over the James Hardy comparison.

Jacob Lacey, junior cornerback. Lacey leads the Cowboys with five interceptions.

Nathan Peterson, senior defensive end. Peterson leads OSU with six sacks and 14 tackles for loss.

Indiana 97, Chicago State 59.

I'm busy, so just a few thoughts on this laugher. First, let me note that IU is ranked 51 in the RPI this morning despite an 11-1 record. Sagarin has IU at #23, which is a bit better, but both rating systems agree that IU's schedule strength is horrible. IU's loss to Xavier is the Hoosiers' only game against a top 50 opponent. IU's best wins are against Illinois State (#65), Georgia Tech (#72), and at Southern Illinois (#80). Kentucky's RPI is sub-200, and based on the current developments, it seems likely that Connecticut, which IU plays in January, will be the Hoosiers' only NCAA-bound non-conference opponent.

The problem with scheduling as many foreseeable sub-200 pushovers as IU has scheduled is that there is no margin for error. Before the season, Kentucky, Southern Illinois, and Connecticut looked like IU's resume-building non-conference games. Kentucky is historically awful, and Southern Illinois has been a tad disappointing (while most Hoosier fans root for Butler and other local mid-majors, we really needed SIU to hold onto that game Friday). If IU had scheduled some low-level major conference teams or some mid-level CUSA or WAC or Missouri Valley teams, our RPI would be a bit better. As it stands, with the exception of the games I mentioned (plus GT, Xavier, and Illinois State), IU consciously scheduled the worst teams from the worst conferences in the country.

I understand that as talented as this IU team is, it's an inexperienced team with a bunch of guys who have never played together before this year. Still, what concerns me for the future is that Sampson hasn't scheduled a single tough game on his own. The Kentucky series is a traditional game. The Big Ten-ACC Challenge is a given. The Xavier and Illinois State games were part of a pre-conference tournament. The Connecticut and SIU series predate Sampson's arrival. It's going to be interesting to see how our schedules develop in the future.

As for Chicago State (box score):

• DJ White continues to be excellent. Who would have guess after the first couple games of the season that there might be some debate concerning the identity of IU's best player. 21 points, 8-11 from the field, 5-7 from the line, 15 rebounds, 23 minutes. That's good, even against CSU.
• Eric Gordon struggled again from the field (3-12) but was 14-14 from the line so ended up with an efficient 22 points. Let's hope Gordon can continue to get to the line when we are playing on the road in the Big Ten with Ed Hightower on the court.
• The turnover numbers were better (only 10 in an 80 possession game), although Jamarcus Ellis provided five on his own.
• 17 assists on 34 field goals. Better.
• Armon Bassett rediscovered his stroke, with 13 points on 8 shots.
• Jordan Crawford shoots a lot, as I have noted before. Crawford scored 15 on 13 shots. Crawford also added 5 steals.

December 31, 1993: Virginia Tech 45, Indiana 20.

Because of how badly the 1993 season ended, it's easy to forget that the Hoosiers flirted with a really special season. After a 3-0 start, including a comfortable win over a bowl-bound Kentucky team, IU lost 27-15 to eventual Rose Bowl team Wisconsin. The Hoosiers then won four in a row and entered November 7-1 with road trips to Penn State and Ohio State (plus a hme game against Purdue) remaining. IU erased two 14 point deficits but fell at Penn State 38-31. In Columbus, Chris Dittoe threw what would have been the game winning touchdown pass just beyond the fingertips of Thomas Lewis, and IU lost 23-17. Had the Hoosiers won just one of those games, a trip to the Holiday Bowl or Citrus Bowl would have been in the works. As it stood, the Big Ten's four automatic bids went to Wisconsin, Penn State, Ohio State, and Michigan, and the Hoosiers were on the open market, and received a bid to what then was known as the Poulan-Weedeater Independence Bowl. Had we known what the next 14 years would hold, we would have been more grateful, I suppose.

I was a member of the Marching Hundred, so my interest in the Hoosiers season was two-fold. Of course, I wanted the Hoosiers to do as well as possible, but I also had some interest in the nature of our free vacation. I still recall picking up the Indiana Daily Student and reading that IU would play Virginia Tech in Shreveport, Louisiana. My first reaction, which says something about what VT has accomplished in the last 15 years, was "who the hell is Virginia Tech?" The Big East was only in its second year of existence, so even though I had grown up as a big football fan, this long-time eastern independent just wasn't in my bank of knowledge. The 1993 Independence Bowl was Frank Beamer's first bowl game at VT. The other thing that I noticed, of course, was "Shreveport." I figured a city in Louisiana with "port" in its name must be on the Gulf of Mexico, right? Nah. As soon as I looked at a map, I realized that essentially, we were going to a bowl game in Arkansas.

I could say a lot about Shreveport, but read this column by Orson Swindle of EDSBS, who says all that needs to be said. Read the whole thing, but this is the key:

The GMAC, the Motor City, the Meineke Car Care Bowl ... they all owe a debt of gratitude to the Independence Bowl, which came along in 1976 and innovated the bowl scene by removing the requirement of being "a destination city" from the criteria.

If there was a nice part of Shreveport, we didn't see it. We were warehoused in a Super 8 out near the interstate within walking distance of a Denny's and not much else. I remember practicing on a 35 degree day on a field of dead yellow grass and thinking, "yes, this is exactly how I pictured a bowl game."

Oh, and the game! Well, here's the box score (click for full size):

IU struck first, with a 77 yard touchdown pass to Thomas Lewis. VT scored two TDs to pull ahead 14-7, but Bill Manolopoulos kicked two field goals in the second quarter to pull the Hoosiers to within a point, at 14-13. IU had the ball late in the second quarter, looking for a halftime lead. If you remember this game and can't stomach the highlights, I don't blame you, but some VT fans has created Youtube videos of the game with all but the action edited out. Here's the first half:

And the second half.

IU had the ball with around 30 seconds left and was at the VT 49 when quarterback John Paci fumbled under pressure. The box score reflects a 20 yard fumble return, but that's because the ball bounced around for a while before the VT player scooped and scored. 20-13. Not good, but not the end of the world. IU returned VT's kickoff to inside the 45 yard line, competed a pass, and called timeout with one second on the clock, just in time to kick a half-ending field goal. Again, at the time no one outside of Blacksburg knew what "Beamerball" was, but as has become VT's trademark, the Hokies blocked the kick and returned it for a touchdown as the half ended. With 35 seconds left in the second quarter, IU trailed 14-13 with the ball in VT territory. At halftime, IU trailed 28-13. One could argue that it has taken IU's program 14 years to recover from that sequence. In any event, in 48 hours, whatever happens against Oklahoma State, the Independence Bowl will no longer be IU's last bowl appearance. That's a good thing.

The Chicago State game: last of the non-con pushovers.

Chicago State Cougars
Current Record: 4-11
Conference record: n/a
Current RPI: 263
Current Sagarin: 269
2006-07 record: 7-20
2006-07 RPI: 213
2006-07 Sagarin: 197
Series: IU leads 1-0 (90-69 in Bloomington last season)

Chicago State is in an odd predicament. A couple of years ago, the Cougars left the Mid-Contintent Conference, now known as the Summit, for reasons that aren't exactly clear, and so the Cougars are one of the few Division I independents. They have played one major conference team, Michigan State, and lost 86-53. After IU, the Cougars will play Alabama and then Northwestern. CSU has defeated only two Division I teams, Jackson State and Binghamton. As for the Hoosiers, Big Ten play begins Wednesday night at Iowa.

The Cougars are led by David Holston, a guard who shoots 43 percent from behind the arc, where he takes 2/3 of his shots, but only 43 percent overall. He also gets to the line 5 times a game and averages nearly five assists a game. Guard John Cantrell is the Cougars' only other double digit scorer, averaging 16.5 points on 50 percent shooting.

CSU plays fairly fast, at 72.5 possessions per game (#51 nationally, above the national average of 68.4 and ahead of IU's 70.5). The Cougars' offensive and defensive efficiency are pretty weak, as would be expected of a 4-11 team. They are near the bottom of D-I in offensive efficiency (.902 points per offensive possession, #292) and defensive efficiency (1.107 points per possession, #312 nationally). CSU turns the ball over on 25 percent of its offensive possessions and doesn't rebound well offensively or get to the line. The same numbers for CSU defensively are uniformly bad. As with too many non-conference opponents this year, Chicago State won't be much of a test.

December 31, 1991: Indiana 24, Baylor 0.

The Hoosiers last won a bowl game nearly 16 years ago, in the predecessor to the Insight Bowl, the Copper Bowl. Unlike the All-American Bowl, the Copper Bowl still exists in some form. Unlike Fulton County Stadium, Arizona Stadium still stands and still hosts the Arizona Wildcats:

although the stadium no longer hosts a bowl game. In 1997, the Copper Bowl became the Insight.com Bowl and became just the Insight Bowl in 2002. In 2000, the game moved from Tucson to Bank One Ballpark, now known as Chase Field, which was designed as the baseball-only home of the Arizona Diamondbacks:

In any event, the 1991 Copper Bowl is IU's only shutout bowl win. Trent Green picked up where he left off in the Peach Bowl, running for two touchdowns, and in his last game as a Hoosier, Vaughn Dunbar added 106 yards and a touchdown on 28 carries. Although IU gained only 323 yards to Baylor's 269, IU led 17-0 at halftime and the Bears approached the endzone only once, but fumbled on the 2 yard line. Here's the box score:

Now that the Hoosiers have ended their long bowl appearance drought, hopefully IU can end the one-game postseason losing streak at the site of the last win, more or less.

December 30, 1990: Auburn 27, Indiana 23.

For the second time in four years, the Hoosiers lost a heartbreaker in Atlanta. As against Tennessee in 1987, IU overcame a deficit to take a fourth quarter lead, only to lose in dramatic fashion. Here's the box score (click for full size):

In 1990, Auburn's Stan White led a 72 yard drive and scored the winning touchdown with 39 seconds remaining. The Tigers led 20-10 at the beginning of the fourth quarter but Trent Green ran for two touchdowns in the fourth quarter to give IU the lead. It would have been hard to foresee that Green would eventually become a proficient, all-Pro passer in the NFL. Consistent with many of his IU performances, Green did his best work on the ground (although Green netted only 7 yards on 14 carries). Green passed for 99 yards on 10-19 and Vaughn Dunbar added 81 yards on the ground.

The Motor City Bowl: why, Jim Delany?

Last night, Purdue, the Big Ten's eighth bowl team, blew a big lead but kicked a field goal as time expired to beat MAC Champion Central Michigan. I realize it's politically correct to claim to root for fellow Big Ten schools during bowl season, but I have to confess that I wasn't in the Boilers' corner last night. Still, I suppose Purdue's last-second win did save the Big Ten a black eye, even though a MAC champion defeating the #8 team in the Big Ten shouldn't be considered an earth-shattering upset. What I didn't get when this deal was announced years ago, and what I still don't get, is why the Big Ten agreed to this ridiculous arrangement in the first place. Let's run down the problems:

• The location. I don't want to run down Detroit. I was born there and have many relatives in the area. I know it's not all bad and that downtown has improved in recent years. Still, a bowl game is supposed to be a reward, and a trip to Detroit, an unexciting city with bad weather, is a fairly lame reward. Of all of the cities that host bowls, Detroit is the coldest in the United States. Toronto is colder, but is a world class, destination city. Further, forcing a Big Ten team a bowl game right in the middle of Big Ten country doesn't make sense. Again, I live in the midwest and like many things about this place, but not December/January weather. Nearly every Big Ten team plays a game in Michigan every year. Where is the novelty?
• The opponent. The MAC is a solid conference, and while the league lacks top-to-bottom strength, the MAC champion often is a legitimately good team. Nearly every Big Ten school plays one or more nonconference games against MAC schools each season, and the MAC occasionally gets a scalp. The MAC's footprint is similar to that of the Big Ten. The typical MAC school is a public university from a state with a more prestigious Big Ten school (indeed, every MAC school except Buffalo fits that description) and the typical MAC football roster is populated by players who wanted, but didn't get, recruiting attention from Big Ten schools. Combine the undesirable venue with a ho-hum opponent with a chip on its shoulder, and the powers-that-be have set up a mediocre Big Ten team for failure. A Big Ten team playing a MAC team at a midwestern venue isn't a bowl game; it's called "September."
• The coverage. Joe Tiller has done a fine job at Purdue, but this wasn't one of his better teams. Purdue beat a I-AA team, two MAC teams, the worst Notre Dame team ever, and the Big Ten's three bowl-less teams (I know IU's resume wasn't any better--that's not the point). Yet, we are treated to breathless hysteria like this from the Detroit Free Press's Drew Sharp:

  They could have removed the schools' names and just put the score "Big Ten 41, Mid-American Conference 41" up there because that's what everybody really saw.

  He's probably right, but people shouldn't see that. They should see "MAC Champion playing its biggest game of the season and possibly ever 41, mediocre Big Ten team whose players would rather be playing XBox 41." I'm sure there is more of this all over the country. Because this game was close, everyone is talking about it. If Purdue had won 55-20, no one would care.

So, Commissioner Delany, why? There are minor bowls all over the country. Las Vegas, Birmingham, Toronto, San Francisco, Nashville...hell, Boise. I don't think it's beneath the Big Ten to play a non-BCS conference team. But why not the WAC, the Mountain West, or Conference USA instead of the conference that dominates the Big Ten's nonconference schedule? Not every bowl location is going to match Pasadena, but at the very least, a bowl game should involve a trip to another part of the country to play a team from another part of the country. The Big Ten school sentenced to the Motor City Bowl gets nothing out of it but a few extra weeks of practice and the opportunity to become a Sportscenter punchline. In the era of 12 game schedules and soft non-conference schedules, the Big Ten likely will send someone to Detroit most every year unless the Big Ten wisely gets out of this arrangement as soon as possible. It can't happen soon enough.

December 28, 1988: Indiana 34, South Carolina 10.

Indiana, in what probably was Bill Mallory's second finest season, defeated South Carolina 34-10 in the Liberty Bowl. Here's the box score (click for full size):

The Hoosiers completely dominated the game. IU led 17-0 at halftime and allowed only one touchdown, on a blocked punt. IU outgained the Gamecocks 575-153 and allowed only 23 rushing yards. Dave Schnell threw for 378 yards and two touchdowns and Anthony Thompson in what sadly was his last bowl appearance, scored two touchdowns and rushed for 140 yards on 26 carries. The Hoosier defense also did its part, picking off South Carolina quarterback Todd Ellis three times.

Here is the recap from the New York Times:

FOOTBALL Indiana Wins in Liberty Bowl: Dave Schnell passed for 378 yards and 2 touchdowns, including an 88-yard game-breaking toss to Rob Turner, leading Indiana to a Liberty Bowl victory over South Carolina last night. The victory capped an 8-3-1 season for Indiana. South Carolina ended the year 8-4. The Gamecocks never have won a bowl game, dropping to 0-8 with the loss. Collin Mackie had kicked a 43-yard field goal for South Carolina, making it 20-10. But Schnell then put the game away on the first play of the fourth quarter. He spotted Turner behind the secondary and Turner pulled in the pass at the Gamecocks' 40. He never was touched on the longest scoring pass in Liberty Bowl history.